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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: June 7, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero at 44%, followed by Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera at 32.5%, Santiago Nieto Castillo at 20%. The market has $29.5K in total volume and $2.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero | 44% | +7.5 pts | $8.8K |
| Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera | 32.5% | -3.0 pts | $4.1K |
| Santiago Nieto Castillo | 20% | -3.6 pts | $1.6K |
| Teresa Calzada Rovirosa | 1.8% | -0.1 pts | $603 |
| Laura Patricia Polo Herrera | 1.5% | +0.1 pts | $679 |
| Agustín Dorantes Lámbarri | 0.5% | -5.9 pts | $765 |
| Josué Guerrero Trápala | 0.3% | -0.1 pts | $606 |
| Beatriz Robles Gutiérrez | 0.2% | — | $765 |
| José María Tapia Franco | 0.2% | — | $653 |
| Abigail Arredondo Ramos | 0.2% | — | $566 |
| Luis Humberto Fernández Fuentes | 0.1% | — | $2.9K |
| Manuel Garrido Patrón | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $1.2K |
| Mario Mauro Ramírez González | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $1.1K |
| Marco Antonio Del Prete Tercero | 0.1% | -0.4 pts | $738 |
| Guadalupe Murguía Gutiérrez | 0.1% | — | $714 |
6 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $29.5K · 24h volume $2.4K · Liquidity $332.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero ■ Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera ■ Santiago Nieto Castillo · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Querétaro on June 6, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Querétaro gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Querétaro and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Querétaro and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Mexico odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Luis Bernardo Nava Guerrero at 44%, followed by Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera at 32.5%, Santiago Nieto Castillo at 20%. The market has $29.5K in total volume and $2.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is June 7, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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