Explainer · live examples updated October 6, 2026, twice a day
Awards markets ask who wins a prize — an Oscar category, a Nobel Prize, the Ballon d'Or, an MTV award. Each nominee or candidate is its own yes/no outcome, and exactly one wins.
Prices react to nominations, precursor awards, betting-market leaks and insider chatter, and settle when the winner is announced.
Harry Kane 47.5% · 19 live outcomes · $780.5K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).”
Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms 15.3% · 40 live outcomes · $243.9K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that …”
Lamine Yamal 97.8% · 19 live outcomes · $14.6K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lamine Yamal officially finishes in the top 3 (positions 1 through 3) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: Awards odds · Pop Culture odds
On the official announcement by the awarding body, as the rules specify, including how shared or unlisted winners are handled.
Prices are probabilities, not certainties: a 60% favourite still loses about four times in ten.
Up or Down markets · Crypto price markets · Tweet count markets · Temperature markets · Fed decision markets · Multi-outcome markets · “By date” markets · Yes/No markets · Mention markets · Sports game markets · Election markets · Economic data markets · Box office markets · Earnings markets · Stock price markets · Price range markets · Approval rating markets · Parlay-style markets · Long-dated markets
Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice.