Home › Learn › Tweet count markets
Explainer · live examples updated October 6, 2026, twice a day
Tweet count markets ask how many times an account — most often Elon Musk's — will post on X between two moments, usually a week apart. The possible counts are split into ranges, and exactly one range wins.
Traders watch the running count during the week, so prices move as the posts come in; the leading range near the end is usually the one the current pace points to.
200-219 88.9% · 16 live outcomes · $437.7K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 29 12:00 PM ET to October 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted …”
180-199 23.5% · 22 live outcomes · $315.7K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 2 12:00 PM ET to October 9, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted …”
180-199 24.5% · 26 live outcomes · $156.4K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 6 12:00 PM ET to October 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: Elon Musk odds
To the range containing the number of qualifying posts made by the account between the start and end times in the rules; the rules also say what counts as a post and how it is tallied.
Each outcome is a count range; together they cover every possible total, and exactly one resolves Yes.
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