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Explainer · live examples updated October 6, 2026, twice a day
Earnings markets ask whether a listed company will beat Wall Street's estimate in its next quarterly report. Each market names the consensus figure for earnings per share (EPS) as of the day the market opened, and resolves Yes if the reported number is above it.
There are two shares, Yes and No. The price of Yes reads as the chance the company beats the estimate; it usually moves most in the days before the report and settles within hours of the release.
Yes 82% · 2 live outcomes · $1.1K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “As of market creation, PepsiCo is estimated to release earnings on October 8, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for PepsiCo’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.32 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if PepsiCo reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $2.32 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the …”
Yes 91.5% · 2 live outcomes · $495 traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “As of market creation, Citigroup is estimated to release earnings on October 13, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Citigroup's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.72 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Citigroup reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.72 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the …”
Yes 50.5% · 2 live outcomes · $261 traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “As of market creation, Goldman Sachs is estimated to release earnings on October 13, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Goldman Sachs's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $16.41 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Goldman Sachs reports GAAP EPS greater than $16.41 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
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That the company reports earnings per share above the consensus estimate named in the market's rules, using the EPS measure and source the rules specify.
Soon after the company publishes its quarterly results, based on the figure in its official earnings documents or the fallback source named in the rules.
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