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Explainer · live examples updated October 6, 2026, twice a day
Box office markets ask how much a film will earn — in its opening weekend or in total by a date — split into dollar ranges. Exactly one range wins, based on the reported figures.
Tracking numbers, Thursday previews and Friday estimates move the prices sharply through the release weekend.
<970m 96.5% · 6 live outcomes · $8.6K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by October 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and October 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio …”
150 - 160m 62% · 7 live outcomes · $3.5K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to how much "Resident Evil" box office will gross domestically by October 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (September 18, 2026) and October 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). …”
27-30m 32.5% · 6 live outcomes · $1.5K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to how much "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 9 - 11) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: Movies & Box Office odds · Pop Culture odds
The one named in each market's rules — typically a box office tracking site's reported figure for the stated period.
Preview and first-day numbers arrive, and they are strong predictors of the weekend total.
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