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Explainer · live examples updated October 6, 2026, twice a day
Economic data markets ask what an official statistic will show — the monthly CPI inflation rate, the jobs report, GDP growth. The possible readings are split into ranges or thresholds, and the official release decides the winner.
Prices move with forecasts and related data in the days before a release, then settle within minutes of the publication.
Above 4.5% 13% · 5 live outcomes · $1.0K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 …”
4.0–5.0% 92.5% · 10 live outcomes · $557 traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under …”
5.0% 5.5% · 5 live outcomes · $81 traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: Inflation & CPI odds · US Economy odds · Fed & Interest Rates odds
The one named in the rules — usually the first official release of the stated series — not later revisions.
Most US data are published at 8:30 a.m. ET; once the number is out, the matching range goes to nearly $1.
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