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Explainer · live examples updated October 6, 2026, twice a day
Fed decision markets ask what the Federal Reserve will do at a specific FOMC meeting: cut, hold or hike, and by how much. Each possible move is an outcome, and exactly one resolves Yes after the statement is published.
Related markets cover the number of cuts in a year, the rate at year-end and who chairs the Fed. Together they give a live read of rate expectations between meetings.
No change 81.5% · 5 live outcomes · $1.21M traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the …”
5.4% 59% · 4 live outcomes · $58.6K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the …”
25 bps increase 74.5% · 5 live outcomes · $42.4K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: Fed & Interest Rates odds · Inflation & CPI odds · US Economy odds
Work it out: fed funds futures probability calculator.
On the change to the federal funds target range announced at the named meeting, measured as the rules specify (for example by the upper bound), into the listed buckets such as 25 bp cut, no change or 25 bp hike.
They measure the same question from different sources — traders' prices on Polymarket versus fed funds futures — and usually track each other closely, with occasional gaps.
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