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How Polymarket Up or Down Markets Work (15-Minute, Hourly and Daily)

Explainer · live examples updated October 6, 2026, twice a day

Up or Down markets ask one question: will a price — usually Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana or XRP — finish a set window higher or lower than it started? Windows range from a few minutes to a full day, and a new market opens for every window.

There are two shares, Up and Down. The correct one pays $1; the other expires worthless. The price of Up is the market's estimate of the chance the price rises over the window.

Live examples

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 6?

Up 91.5% · 2 live outcomes · $54.8K traded in 24h

Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:01 in the ET timezone on Oct 5 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:01 ET on Oct 6 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:01 in the ET timezone on Oct 5 '26 is higher than the final "Close" …”

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 6?

$750 99.7% · 11 live outcomes · $28.1K traded in 24h

Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for S&P 500 (SPY) on October 6, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If S&P 500 (SPY) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve …”

Ethereum Up or Down on October 6?

Up 82% · 2 live outcomes · $27.2K traded in 24h

Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:01 in the ET timezone on Oct 5 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:01 ET on Oct 6 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:01 in the ET timezone on Oct 5 '26 is higher than the final "Close" …”

What to check before trading

⚠️ The rules name the exact data source and candle (for example a specific exchange's one-minute or one-hour candle) — not the price you see on another site.
⚠️ Some versions compare the close with the open of one candle, others compare today's close with yesterday's; read which.
⚠️ Ties matter: some rules count an unchanged price as Up. Check the wording before trading tiny moves.
⚠️ Short windows move fast and the order book can be thin: the spread can cost more than the edge.

The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.

Live odds: Bitcoin odds · Ethereum odds · Crypto Prices odds

Frequently asked questions

How do Polymarket Up or Down markets resolve?

By comparing two prices from the data source named in the rules — typically the close of a set candle with its open, or with the previous day's close. Up pays $1 if the price finished higher (the rules say how a tie is treated).

How long do Up or Down markets last?

From a few minutes to a day; each window is its own market, and new ones open continuously.

More market types

Crypto price markets · Tweet count markets · Temperature markets · Fed decision markets · Multi-outcome markets · “By date” markets · Yes/No markets · Mention markets · Sports game markets · Election markets · Economic data markets · Box office markets · Awards markets · Earnings markets · Stock price markets · Price range markets · Approval rating markets · Parlay-style markets · Long-dated markets

Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice.