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Explainer · live examples updated October 6, 2026, twice a day
Temperature markets ask what the highest (or lowest) temperature will be in a city on a given day. The possible readings are split into ranges of a degree or two, and exactly one range wins.
Each market names the official weather station whose reading counts — often an airport station — and the unit, Fahrenheit or Celsius. Forecast updates move the prices through the day.
29°C 41.5% · 11 live outcomes · $41.2K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 6 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: …”
16°C 99.5% · 11 live outcomes · $23.2K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data for the …”
96-97°F 30.2% · 11 live outcomes · $23.1K traded in 24h
Rules excerpt from Polymarket: “This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax This market …”
The rules text on each market is what decides the outcome. Our market pages summarise it under “How this market resolves”, and how Polymarket resolves markets explains proposals, disputes and payout times.
Live odds: Weather odds
To the temperature range that contains the highest (or lowest) temperature recorded on that date by the station named in the rules, in the unit the rules give.
From the source named in each market's rules — for example a national weather service's airport station.
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