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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: July 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 33.5%, followed by By December 31 at 6.5%. The market has $4.21M in total volume and $6.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By June 30, 2027 | 33.5% | -2.0 pts | $96.7K |
| By December 31 | 6.5% | -1.0 pts | $994.9K |
| By July 15 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $1.56M |
| By September 30 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $1.51M |
| By March 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $27.0K |
| By February 28 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $15.1K |
Total volume $4.21M · 24h volume $6.8K · Liquidity $130.3K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By June 30, 2027 ■ By December 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.
Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Supreme Court odds · Politics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 33.5%, followed by By December 31 at 6.5%. The market has $4.21M in total volume and $6.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is July 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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