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Updated October 6, 2026 · 141 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 141 live Geopolitics markets with $5.42M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Next French Presidential Election (Marine Le Pen 42.5%), followed by US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By March 31 71.5%), Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 15.5%).
Wars, ceasefires, sanctions, diplomacy and leadership changes around the world. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
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| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next French Presidential Election | Marine Le Pen 42.5% | -2.3 pts | $902.6K | Apr 19, 2027 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade? | By March 31 71.5% | -1.0 pts | $484.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 15.5% | — | $449.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? | Gadi Eizenkot 46.8% | +0.9 pts | $331.6K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues? | Through October 5 99.9% | +1.2 pts | $219.0K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Will Iran target Iraq? | By September 30 99.9%+ | — | $181.1K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 | Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms 14.3% | -1.3 pts | $169.0K | Apr 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 18.5% | -1.0 pts | $160.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? | By December 31 15% | -2.5 pts | $142.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues? | Through October 9 98.8% | — | $129.5K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $129.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | Yes 10% | +5.5 pts | $122.4K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change? | By June 30, 2027 22.5% | — | $118.8K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts? | By November 30 75% | -2.0 pts | $117.8K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Next leader out of power before 2027? | None before 2027 36% | +3.0 pts | $111.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain? | By December 31, 2026 28.5% | +4.0 pts | $110.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Putin out as President of Russia? | By June 30, 2027 10.5% | — | $110.1K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow? | October 6 99.9% | +47.9 pts | $95.3K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon? | October 5 98.7% | +1.7 pts | $73.2K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Quebec General Election Winner | PQ 99.9% | +3.5 pts | $54.2K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? | December 31 12.5% | — | $52.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen? | October 5 97.5% | +28.0 pts | $51.1K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Crude Oil all time high? | By December 31 9.5% | -1.0 pts | $49.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control? | By December 31 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $49.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka? | By June 30, 2027 59% | -5.0 pts | $45.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Houthis enter Aden? | By December 31 28.5% | -3.5 pts | $41.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Yes 2.5% | -0.1 pts | $38.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? | Somaliland 16% | +7.5 pts | $36.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| New pandemic in 2026? | Yes 7.5% | +2.0 pts | $33.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| NATO x Russia military clash? | By December 31 21.5% | +0.5 pts | $32.8K | Jan 3, 2027 |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced? | By December 31 23% | +0.5 pts | $31.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes 2.5% | — | $30.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| USS George Washington departs CENTCOM? | By December 31 73.5% | +9.0 pts | $29.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Saudi airspace closed? | By December 31 15.5% | +2.0 pts | $29.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement? | By December 31 33% | +2.0 pts | $27.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes 5.5% | +1.0 pts | $25.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran leader end of 2026? | Mojtaba Khamenei 88.1% | +0.9 pts | $24.8K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes 10% | +0.5 pts | $22.7K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Bulgaria Presidential Election | Iliana Iotova 90% | +4.5 pts | $22.5K | Oct 26, 2026 |
| Will Iran target an Arab country? | By September 30 99.9%+ | — | $22.0K | Oct 31, 2026 |
101 smaller markets are not shown; all 141 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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How these markets work: “By date” markets · Yes/No markets · Parlay-style markets.
Ségolène Royal · Mathilde Panot · Olivier Faure · Xavier Bertrand · François Bayrou · François Asselineau · Yaël Braun-Pivet · Élisabeth Borne · Michel Barnier · Manuel Bompard · Clémentine Autain · Nicolas Dupont-Aignan · Carole Delga · François Ruffin · Marine Tondelier
Iran (109) · Strait of Hormuz (23) · Israel (109) · Middle East (111) · Russia–Ukraine War (131) · China & Taiwan (74) · Venezuela (27)
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 141 live Geopolitics markets with $5.42M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Next French Presidential Election (Marine Le Pen 42.5%), followed by US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By March 31 71.5%), Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 15.5%).
141 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/geopolitics/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Geopolitics odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/geopolitics/">Geopolitics odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/geopolitics.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/geopolitics/)
Polymarket View, “Geopolitics odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/geopolitics/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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