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Updated October 6, 2026 · 109 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 109 live Iran markets with $2.81M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By March 31 71.5%), followed by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 15.5%), US-Iran ceasefire continues? (Through October 5 99.9%).
Iran: talks with the US, strikes, ceasefires, sanctions and the country's leadership. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade? | By March 31 71.5% | -1.0 pts | $484.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 15.5% | — | $449.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues? | Through October 5 99.9% | +1.2 pts | $219.0K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Will Iran target Iraq? | By September 30 99.9%+ | — | $181.1K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 18.5% | -1.0 pts | $160.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? | By December 31 15% | -2.5 pts | $142.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues? | Through October 9 98.8% | — | $129.5K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $129.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | Yes 9.5% | +5.0 pts | $122.4K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change? | By June 30, 2027 22.5% | — | $118.8K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts? | By November 30 75% | -2.0 pts | $117.8K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon? | October 5 98.7% | +1.7 pts | $73.2K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? | December 31 12.5% | — | $52.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Crude Oil all time high? | By December 31 9.5% | -1.0 pts | $49.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control? | By December 31 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $49.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Houthis enter Aden? | By December 31 28.5% | -3.5 pts | $41.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Saudi airspace closed? | By December 31 15.5% | +2.0 pts | $29.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement? | By December 31 33% | +2.0 pts | $27.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran leader end of 2026? | Mojtaba Khamenei 88.1% | +0.9 pts | $24.8K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes 10% | +0.5 pts | $22.7K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Will Iran target an Arab country? | By September 30 99.9%+ | — | $22.0K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? | Steve Witkoff 50% | — | $18.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control? | By December 31 31% | +13.0 pts | $15.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes 2.5% | -0.4 pts | $11.9K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting? | By December 31, 2026 46% | -3.5 pts | $7.9K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes 2.7% | -1.8 pts | $7.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran full airspace closure? | By December 31 20% | +1.5 pts | $7.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site? | By December 31 14.5% | -1.0 pts | $7.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October? | 25-29 42.5% | -10.0 pts | $5.7K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) | December 31 16.5% | -2.0 pts | $5.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium? | By December 31 5.5% | — | $5.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) 15.5% | +1.0 pts | $5.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026? | 30M+ 96.3% | -0.2 pts | $4.1K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Houthis enter Saudi Arabia? | By December 31 26% | +0.5 pts | $4.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place? | No Meeting by December 31 51.5% | +2.0 pts | $3.7K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31? | Yes 0.9% | -0.1 pts | $3.4K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Yes 3.8% | +0.1 pts | $3.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees? | By December 31 19.5% | +3.0 pts | $3.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026? | 30M+ 86.5% | +8.5 pts | $2.8K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia? | October 6 64.5% | +21.5 pts | $2.6K | Nov 1, 2026 |
69 smaller markets are not shown; all 109 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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How these markets work: “By date” markets.
Mojtaba Khamenei · Reza Pahlavi · Masoud Pezeshkian · Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf · Abbas Araghchi · Ahmad Vahidi · Elon Musk · Donald Trump · JD Vance · Pete Hegseth · Marco Rubio · Mohammed bin Salman · Rafael Grossi
Strait of Hormuz (23) · Israel (109) · Middle East (111) · Russia–Ukraine War (131) · China & Taiwan (74) · Venezuela (27) · Geopolitics (141)
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 109 live Iran markets with $2.81M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is US announces end of Iranian blockade? (By March 31 71.5%), followed by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 15.5%), US-Iran ceasefire continues? (Through October 5 99.9%).
109 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/iran/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Iran odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran/">Iran odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/iran.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “Iran odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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