{
 "slug": "geopolitics",
 "topic": "Geopolitics",
 "category": "geopolitics",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/geopolitics/",
 "updated": "2026-10-06T12:50:00+00:00",
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   "title": "Israel military action against Lebanon?",
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   "title": "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control?",
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  {
   "title": "Crude Oil all time high?",
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   "title": "Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain?",
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  {
   "title": "Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen?",
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   "title": "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?",
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   "title": "Houthis enter Aden?",
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  {
   "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
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   "title": "Iran leader end of 2026?",
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  {
   "title": "New pandemic in 2026?",
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   "title": "Xi Jinping out before 2027?",
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   "title": "NATO x Russia military clash?",
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   "leader": "By December 31",
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   "title": "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?",
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  {
   "title": "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?",
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   "title": "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?",
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   "title": "Spain General Election Winner",
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   "title": "Perim Island no longer under Houthi control?",
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   "title": "Will Iran target Iraq?",
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   "leader": "By September 30",
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   "title": "Who will Trump speak to by October 31?",
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   "leader": "Friedrich Merz",
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  {
   "title": "0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?",
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  {
   "title": "Next leader out of power before 2027?",
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   "title": "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement?",
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  {
   "title": "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany?",
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   "title": "Saudi airspace closed?",
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   "title": "Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement?",
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   "title": "Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting?",
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   "title": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement?",
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  {
   "title": "Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-houthi-ceasefire-agreement-announced-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.215,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 17683.58,
   "volume": 119455.49,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Cuban regime falls in 2026?",
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   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.105,
   "change_24h": 0.015,
   "volume_24h": 16178.76,
   "volume": 1789205.21,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Bulgaria Presidential Election",
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   "leader": "Iliana Iotova",
   "probability": 0.905,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 15542.65,
   "volume": 1026399.23,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-margin-of-victory",
   "leader": "Flávio Bolsonaro <4%",
   "probability": 0.495,
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   "volume_24h": 14929.66,
   "volume": 14926.24,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Will Russia target Kyiv?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-target-kyiv-on-october-2026",
   "leader": "October 7",
   "probability": 0.9795,
   "change_24h": 0.1045,
   "volume_24h": 14535.71,
   "volume": 161587.32,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting?",
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   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.82,
   "change_24h": -0.035,
   "volume_24h": 14423.5,
   "volume": 437178.04,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Russia x Ukraine peace talks?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-byptptpt-20260609012540716",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.6,
   "change_24h": -0.025,
   "volume_24h": 12756.84,
   "volume": 1124049.19,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.105,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 11559.71,
   "volume": 2200054.86,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T21:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0225,
   "change_24h": -0.0065,
   "volume_24h": 10231.64,
   "volume": 1757850.02,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Venezuela leader end of 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026",
   "leader": "Nicolás Maduro",
   "probability": 0.7165,
   "change_24h": 0.004,
   "volume_24h": 9491.36,
   "volume": 98072190.8,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-announce-a-new-forced-mobilization-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.105,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 8355.3,
   "volume": 531524.99,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Trump out as President before 2027?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0355,
   "change_24h": -0.001,
   "volume_24h": 8064.0,
   "volume": 12384244.45,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-acquire-any-part-of-greenland-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.03,
   "change_24h": 0.0035,
   "volume_24h": 7818.82,
   "volume": 10906258.94,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-lebanon-normalize-relations-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.03,
   "change_24h": -0.015,
   "volume_24h": 7688.3,
   "volume": 248371.13,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-december-31",
   "leader": "Druzkhivka",
   "probability": 0.37,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 7646.64,
   "volume": 1663692.34,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Next Israeli Minister of Defense?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-defense",
   "leader": "No Next Minister by Feb 28",
   "probability": 0.3135,
   "change_24h": -0.0415,
   "volume_24h": 7642.91,
   "volume": 16557.59,
   "end_date": "2027-03-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Who will Trump meet with in 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-meet-with-in-2026",
   "leader": "Vladimir Putin",
   "probability": 0.795,
   "change_24h": -0.03,
   "volume_24h": 6936.32,
   "volume": 1220334.56,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-june-30-2026",
   "leader": "By June 30, 2027",
   "probability": 0.085,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 6862.34,
   "volume": 4104455.51,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.095,
   "change_24h": 0.02,
   "volume_24h": 6665.66,
   "volume": 770496.05,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Pakistan military action against Yemen?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/pakistan-military-action-against-yemen-by-20260909",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.335,
   "change_24h": 0.225,
   "volume_24h": 6357.78,
   "volume": 35478.75,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T20:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-zelenskyy-and-putin-meet-next",
   "leader": "No meeting before 2027",
   "probability": 0.95,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume_24h": 6263.73,
   "volume": 3663450.03,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-bab-el-mandeb-strait-end-of-october",
   "leader": "25-29",
   "probability": 0.415,
   "change_24h": -0.11,
   "volume_24h": 6254.56,
   "volume": 12410.99,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By March 31, 2027",
   "probability": 0.54,
   "change_24h": -0.115,
   "volume_24h": 6013.93,
   "volume": 59764.79,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-alberta-vote-for-independence-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0235,
   "change_24h": -0.0095,
   "volume_24h": 5835.47,
   "volume": 337233.22,
   "end_date": "2026-10-20T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US-Yemen ceasefire continues?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-yemen-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt",
   "leader": "Through October 9",
   "probability": 0.9565,
   "change_24h": -0.0075,
   "volume_24h": 5730.75,
   "volume": 111376.33,
   "end_date": "2026-10-31T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?",
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   "leader": "China",
   "probability": 0.745,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 5712.28,
   "volume": 1702686.48,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.835,
   "change_24h": 0.02,
   "volume_24h": 5708.07,
   "volume": 815576.2,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T16:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.1,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume_24h": 5588.78,
   "volume": 605481.65,
   "end_date": "2026-12-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-obtains-iranian-enriched-uranium-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.045,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 5476.0,
   "volume": 29526403.68,
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  },
  {
   "title": "US military action against Cuba?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-cuba-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.105,
   "change_24h": -0.02,
   "volume_24h": 4726.13,
   "volume": 7573036.39,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.185,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 4693.18,
   "volume": 7299569.23,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.075,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 4468.44,
   "volume": 18020266.34,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Saudi troops fighting in Yemen?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-troops-fighting-in-yemen-by",
   "leader": "By December 31, 2026",
   "probability": 0.24,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 4423.88,
   "volume": 70395.68,
   "end_date": "2027-07-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Trump visit Greenland?",
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   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.105,
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   "volume": 342092.07,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-october-20260729164521631",
   "leader": "25 bps increase",
   "probability": 0.615,
   "change_24h": -0.06,
   "volume_24h": 4286.68,
   "volume": 87331.5,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-turnout",
   "leader": "78-80%",
   "probability": 0.6,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 4257.68,
   "volume": 4257.68,
   "end_date": "2026-10-26T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-be-in-a-us-iran-deal-in-2026-20260624150226501",
   "leader": "Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)",
   "probability": 0.145,
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   "volume_24h": 4174.35,
   "volume": 1213682.47,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-x-saudi-arabia-effective-ceasefire-begins-by-20260916",
   "leader": "October 31",
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   "volume": 17495.94,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/lula-flips-bolsonaro-for-brazil-president-by",
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   "probability": 0.026,
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   "volume": 39272.91,
   "end_date": "2026-10-16T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-added-to-chinese-military-companies-list-by-june-30-2027-20260706225129414",
   "leader": "DeepSeek",
   "probability": 0.305,
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   "volume_24h": 3837.48,
   "volume": 104571.78,
   "end_date": "2027-07-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-china-agree-to-pace-the-ai-frontier-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0685,
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   "volume_24h": 3822.26,
   "volume": 60103.18,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/2026-taiwanese-local-elections-party-winner/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/2026-taiwanese-local-elections-party-winner",
   "leader": "Kuomintang (KMT)",
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   "volume_24h": 3806.6,
   "volume": 209499.92,
   "end_date": "2026-11-29T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/which-parties-will-be-in-the-next-israeli-government/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-the-next-israeli-government",
   "leader": "Yashar",
   "probability": 0.58,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 3608.2,
   "volume": 31118.06,
   "end_date": "2027-06-30T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Erdoğan out?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/erdoan-out-before-2027/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/erdoan-out-before-2027",
   "leader": "By December 31, 2027",
   "probability": 0.35,
   "change_24h": 0.055,
   "volume_24h": 3309.46,
   "volume": 647672.71,
   "end_date": "2027-12-31T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Iran Nuke before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran-nuke-before-2027/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-nuke-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.037,
   "change_24h": 0.0015,
   "volume_24h": 3290.3,
   "volume": 1355376.56,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/where-will-the-next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-take-place/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-the-next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-take-placeptptpt",
   "leader": "No Meeting by December 31",
   "probability": 0.515,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 2898.13,
   "volume": 135180.18,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Next Israeli Minister of Justice?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-justice",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-justice",
   "leader": "No Next Minister by Feb 28",
   "probability": 0.325,
   "change_24h": 0.04,
   "volume_24h": 2812.06,
   "volume": 17939.01,
   "end_date": "2027-03-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US strike on Mexico?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/us-strike-on-mexico/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-mexico-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.0355,
   "change_24h": -0.0245,
   "volume_24h": 2811.45,
   "volume": 3491014.8,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Russia invade another country?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026",
   "leader": "By December 31, 2027",
   "probability": 0.15,
   "change_24h": -0.035,
   "volume_24h": 2749.12,
   "volume": 600519.01,
   "end_date": "2028-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel withdraws from Lebanon?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by",
   "leader": "By December 31, 2027",
   "probability": 0.365,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 2649.82,
   "volume": 8507464.32,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Russia invade a NATO country?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025",
   "leader": "By December 31, 2026",
   "probability": 0.055,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 2649.75,
   "volume": 5493163.04,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Romanian PM Bolojan out?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/romanian-pm-bolojan-out/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/romanian-pm-bolojan-out-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.826,
   "change_24h": -0.016,
   "volume_24h": 2550.74,
   "volume": 873390.59,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Netanyahu out?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/netanyahu-out-before-2027/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/netanyahu-out-before-2027",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.39,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 2548.57,
   "volume": 124501878.01,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-before-2027/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.044,
   "change_24h": -0.016,
   "volume_24h": 2518.75,
   "volume": 448046.26,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-saudi-arabia-on-october-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-saudi-arabia-on-october-2026",
   "leader": "October 5",
   "probability": 0.755,
   "change_24h": 0.41,
   "volume_24h": 2436.83,
   "volume": 8857.97,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-russia-enter-oleksiievo-druzhkivka-again/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-oleksiievo-druzhkivka-again-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.875,
   "change_24h": 0.025,
   "volume_24h": 2250.11,
   "volume": 20536.62,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US military draft authorized in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/us-military-draft-authorized-in-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-military-draft-authorized-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.039,
   "change_24h": 0.0005,
   "volume_24h": 2238.25,
   "volume": 537875.88,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Iran target an Arab country?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-iran-target-an-arab-country/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-an-arab-country-by-20260909",
   "leader": "By September 30",
   "probability": 0.9995,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 2208.19,
   "volume": 160278.09,
   "end_date": "2026-10-31T20:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-november/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-november",
   "leader": "No change",
   "probability": 0.85,
   "change_24h": -0.05,
   "volume_24h": 2134.72,
   "volume": 82269.46,
   "end_date": "2026-11-04T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Iran charges Hormuz fees?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran-charges-hormuz-fees/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.175,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume_24h": 2116.1,
   "volume": 3500624.29,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will the US officially declare war on Iran?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.032,
   "change_24h": 0.002,
   "volume_24h": 2080.98,
   "volume": 7834080.16,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Next Israeli Minister of National Security?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-national-security",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-national-security",
   "leader": "No Next Minister by Feb 28",
   "probability": 0.335,
   "change_24h": -0.045,
   "volume_24h": 2061.86,
   "volume": 18063.3,
   "end_date": "2027-03-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Russia capture all of Bilytske?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-russia-capture-all-of-bilytske-by-june-30/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-bilytske-by-june-30",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.525,
   "change_24h": -0.04,
   "volume_24h": 2060.72,
   "volume": 102579.34,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/foreign-intervention-in-gaza/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/foreign-intervention-in-gaza-by",
   "leader": "December 31",
   "probability": 0.11,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 2027.66,
   "volume": 1104797.49,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.12,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume_24h": 2015.53,
   "volume": 2241853.55,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.032,
   "change_24h": -0.006,
   "volume_24h": 1991.35,
   "volume": 641226.14,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-october-5",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-october-5",
   "leader": "35-39",
   "probability": 0.285,
   "change_24h": 0.175,
   "volume_24h": 1973.48,
   "volume": 9240.43,
   "end_date": "2026-10-12T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Yoon out of custody before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/yoon-out-of-custody-before-2027/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/yoon-out-of-custody-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0505,
   "change_24h": -0.001,
   "volume_24h": 1900.0,
   "volume": 218699.36,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026",
   "leader": "4",
   "probability": 0.676,
   "change_24h": -0.1025,
   "volume_24h": 1852.53,
   "volume": 7570142.71,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/next-israeli-minister-of-foreign-affairs/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-foreign-affairs",
   "leader": "No Next Minister by Feb 28",
   "probability": 0.335,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 1817.2,
   "volume": 27789.97,
   "end_date": "2027-03-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/who-will-xi-jinping-purge-in-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-xi-jinping-purge-in-2026",
   "leader": "Dong Jun",
   "probability": 0.0895,
   "change_24h": 0.008,
   "volume_24h": 1632.98,
   "volume": 243248.96,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Russia capture Lyman?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-lyman-in-2025",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.055,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 1517.11,
   "volume": 3117749.22,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-win-a-seat-in-the-2026-knesset-elections",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-win-a-seat-in-the-2026-knesset-elections",
   "leader": "Ra'am",
   "probability": 0.956,
   "change_24h": 0.008,
   "volume_24h": 1492.85,
   "volume": 11000.57,
   "end_date": "2026-10-27T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-december-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-december-2026",
   "leader": "No change",
   "probability": 0.665,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 1449.14,
   "volume": 1449.14,
   "end_date": "2026-12-08T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Brazil Annual Inflation 2026",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/brazil-annual-inflation-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-annual-inflation-2026",
   "leader": "5.00-5.49%",
   "probability": 0.4965,
   "change_24h": -0.061,
   "volume_24h": 1359.26,
   "volume": 152130.42,
   "end_date": "2027-01-13T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/meloni-out-as-prime-minister-of-italy-by-june-30/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/meloni-out-as-prime-minister-of-italy-by-june-30",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.05,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 1318.94,
   "volume": 172967.22,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.045,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 1317.02,
   "volume": 3375082.16,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.23,
   "change_24h": -0.025,
   "volume_24h": 1272.75,
   "volume": 13828.97,
   "end_date": "2028-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-cducsuspd-german-federal-coalition-break-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.125,
   "change_24h": 0.015,
   "volume_24h": 1159.14,
   "volume": 90697.72,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T22:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Bank of Japan Decision in October?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/events/bank-of-japan-october-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-october-20260731151537",
   "leader": "No change",
   "probability": 0.925,
   "change_24h": 0.04,
   "volume_24h": 1140.95,
   "volume": 188267.9,
   "end_date": "2026-10-30T00:00:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-before-2027",
   "leader": "Italy",
   "probability": 0.11,
   "change_24h": -0.02,
   "volume_24h": 1131.34,
   "volume": 762011.44,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "China Annual Inflation 2026",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/china-annual-inflation-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/china-annual-inflation-2026",
   "leader": "0.6 – 1.0%",
   "probability": 0.385,
   "change_24h": 0.04,
   "volume_24h": 1096.57,
   "volume": 104564.42,
   "end_date": "2027-01-11T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/zhang-youxia-sentenced-to-prison-before-2027/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/zhang-youxia-sentenced-to-prison-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.115,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 1069.59,
   "volume": 222364.08,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/where-will-the-next-russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-take-place/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-the-next-russia-x-ukraine-peace-talks-take-place",
   "leader": "UAE",
   "probability": 0.555,
   "change_24h": 0.05,
   "volume_24h": 1025.5,
   "volume": 21677.9,
   "end_date": "2028-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?",
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  {
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   "title": "Nguesso out as President of the Republic of the Congo by December 31, 2026?",
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  {
   "title": "US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?",
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  {
   "title": "Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?",
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  {
   "title": "Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?",
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  {
   "title": "El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place",
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  {
   "title": "Russia military action against EU country?",
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  {
   "title": "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
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   "title": "Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia?",
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  {
   "title": "Macron out?",
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 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
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  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/geopolitics/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/geopolitics/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma API; not affiliated with Polymarket."
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