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Venezuela Odds on Polymarket

Updated October 6, 2026 · 27 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 27 live Venezuela markets with $60.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? (Yes 4.5%), followed by Venezuela leader end of 2026? (Nicolás Maduro 71.7%), US military action against Cuba? (By December 31 10.5%).

Venezuela: Maduro, the opposition and US policy toward the country. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

🇪🇸 Versión en español · 🇧🇷 Versão em português

Live Venezuela markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes 4.5%—$36.1KJan 1, 2027
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Nicolás Maduro 71.7%+0.4 pts$9.5KJan 1, 2027
US military action against Cuba?By December 31 10.5%-2.0 pts$4.7KJan 1, 2027
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela?By December 31 37.5%—$3.1KJan 1, 2027
US strike on Mexico?By December 31 3.5%-2.5 pts$2.8KJan 1, 2027
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba?By December 31 12%-0.5 pts$2.0KJan 1, 2027
US strike on Colombia?By December 31 14.5%—$878Jan 1, 2027
Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody?By December 31 7.0%+1.0 pts$251Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?Yes 7.0%+2.0 pts$245Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?Yes 3.1%+0.1 pts$234Jan 1, 2027
US x Cuba economic deal?By December 31 11%-0.5 pts$189Jan 1, 2027
Venezuela presidential election scheduled?By December 31 10.5%-1.0 pts$172Jan 1, 2027
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela?By December 31 6.5%-0.5 pts$150Jan 1, 2027
Maduro Prison Time?No prison time 62.5%+0.5 pts$106Jan 1, 2028
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?1.2m 73%—$43Mar 1, 2027
Maduro guilty of all counts?Yes 34%-1.0 pts$40Jan 1, 2028
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?Yes 4.0%-0.5 pts$12Jan 1, 2027
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?Yes 4.5%—$4Jan 1, 2027
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?Yes 2.6%—$3Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela?By December 31 2.9%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Nicolás Maduro released from custody?By December 31 4.5%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?Delcy Rodríguez 93.5%—$0Dec 31, 2026
Will Venezuela become 51st state?Yes 2.1%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?Yes 1.1%—$0Jan 1, 2027
Will US annex any territory in 2026?Yes 4.9%+0.1 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel?By December 31 13.5%-4.0 pts$0Jan 1, 2027
Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve?By December 31 15.5%-1.5 pts$0Jan 1, 2027

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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People in these markets

Donald Trump · Richard Grenell · Pete Hegseth · Frank Donovan · Marco Rubio · Evan Pettus · Dan Caine · Nicolás Maduro · Dinorah Figuera · Delcy Rodríguez · Diosdado Cabello Rondón · María Corina Machado · Edmundo González · Jorge Rodríguez · Vladimir Padrino López

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Venezuela odds on Polymarket today?

As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 27 live Venezuela markets with $60.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? (Yes 4.5%), followed by Venezuela leader end of 2026? (Nicolás Maduro 71.7%), US military action against Cuba? (By December 31 10.5%).

How many Venezuela markets are open on Polymarket?

27 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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Polymarket View, “Venezuela odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/venezuela/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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