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China & Taiwan Odds on Polymarket
Updated October 6, 2026 · 74 live markets · refreshed twice a day
China and Taiwan: US–China relations, trade talks, Xi Jinping and tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live China & Taiwan markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Chiang Wan-an 74.5% | +3.0 pts | $75.4K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes 2.5% | — | $30.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| New Taipei Mayor Election Winner | Lee Shu-chuan 62.5% | +6.0 pts | $25.4K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner | Kuomintang (KMT) 89.5% | -1.0 pts | $10.5K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of October? | Alibaba 39% | +12.0 pts | $8.7K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner | Lai Jui-lung 64% | +1.5 pts | $2.1K | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | DeepSeek 30.5% | — | $1.9K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | Dong Jun 8.9% | +0.9 pts | $1.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi? | By December 31 76.5% | +3.5 pts | $1.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of October? | Moonshot 33.5% | +3.5 pts | $1.3K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | Yes 11.5% | — | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| China Annual Inflation 2026 | 0.6 – 1.0% 47% | -0.5 pts | $875 | Jan 11, 2027 |
| Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? | Yes 1.8% | +0.3 pts | $835 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026? | 4.3-4.6% 69.5% | -7.0 pts | $606 | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | Yes 7.0% | +3.4 pts | $559 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | Yes 3.4% | -0.5 pts | $507 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Best Chinese AI Company end of December? | Alibaba 39% | +1.5 pts | $468 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October? | Alibaba 47% | -0.5 pts | $444 | Oct 31, 2026 |
| China Annual GDP Growth 2026 | 4.0–5.0% 92.5% | — | $409 | Feb 1, 2027 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes 4.5% | — | $387 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | CATL 40% | +7.5 pts | $380 | Jul 1, 2027 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Yes 25% | — | $317 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner | Ann Kao 92.5% | -0.5 pts | $290 | Nov 29, 2026 |
| US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31? | Yes 6.0% | -6.0 pts | $281 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| September Inflation China - Annual | 0.9% to 1.0% 50% | -5.0 pts | $275 | Oct 14, 2026 |
| Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027? | Yes 80% | +1.0 pts | $250 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Yunlin County Magistrate Election Winner | Chang Chia-chun 84.5% | +2.5 pts | $241 | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner | Cheng Chao-fang 46.5% | -16.0 pts | $235 | Nov 29, 2026 |
| Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung? | By December 31 93.8% | +0.2 pts | $227 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US x China Military clash before 2027? | Yes 2.1% | -0.1 pts | $219 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out? | By December 31 22.5% | — | $217 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? | Yes 16.5% | +1.0 pts | $200 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | Yes 1.7% | +0.1 pts | $179 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes 11.5% | — | $179 | Jan 1, 2028 |
| China x India military clash? | By December 31, 2026 6.5% | — | $135 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | Yes 4.5% | — | $131 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Changhua County Magistrate Election Winner | Chen Su-yueh 92.5% | — | $121 | Nov 29, 2026 |
| People's Bank of China rate change by December 31? | No Change 89.5% | +2.0 pts | $104 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of November? | Alibaba 29% | -2.5 pts | $91 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| Miaoli County Magistrate Election Winner | Chung Tung-chin 95.7% | +1.8 pts | $82 | Nov 29, 2026 |
34 smaller markets are not shown; all 74 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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More Geopolitics & World odds
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Frequently asked questions
What are the China & Taiwan odds on Polymarket today?
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 74 live China & Taiwan markets with $169.3K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Taipei Mayor Election Winner (Chiang Wan-an 74.5%), followed by Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? (Yes 2.5%), New Taipei Mayor Election Winner (Lee Shu-chuan 62.5%).
How many China & Taiwan markets are open on Polymarket?
74 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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Polymarket View, “China & Taiwan odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/china/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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