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Updated October 6, 2026 · 108 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 108 live Middle East markets with $1.64M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? (Gadi Eizenkot 48.1%), followed by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 14.5%), US-Iran ceasefire continues? (Through October 5 99.9%).
The wider Middle East: Yemen and the Houthis, Red Sea shipping, Saudi Arabia and regional diplomacy. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? | Gadi Eizenkot 48.1% | -0.6 pts | $412.9K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 14.5% | -1.0 pts | $312.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues? | Through October 5 99.9% | +0.7 pts | $174.5K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? | By December 31 14.5% | -2.0 pts | $118.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $116.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon? | October 23 91% | +17.5 pts | $75.1K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen? | October 4 94.5% | +1.0 pts | $56.3K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Houthis enter Aden? | By December 31 27.5% | +1.5 pts | $50.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran leader end of 2026? | Mojtaba Khamenei 88% | +0.2 pts | $45.6K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? | Somaliland 15.5% | +7.0 pts | $36.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? | December 31 12.5% | — | $35.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control? | By December 31 37.5% | +5.5 pts | $29.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Iran target Iraq? | By September 30 99.9%+ | — | $29.0K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Saudi airspace closed? | By December 31 14% | — | $21.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced? | By December 31 21.5% | -1.0 pts | $17.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes 3.0% | -1.5 pts | $7.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Defense? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 31.4% | -4.2 pts | $7.6K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza? | By December 31 9.5% | +2.0 pts | $6.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen? | By December 31 33.5% | +22.5 pts | $6.4K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October? | 25-29 41.5% | -11.0 pts | $6.3K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| US-Yemen ceasefire continues? | Through October 9 95.7% | -0.8 pts | $5.7K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance? | By December 31 18.5% | — | $4.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile? | By December 31 7.5% | — | $4.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Saudi troops fighting in Yemen? | By December 31, 2026 24% | +0.5 pts | $4.4K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) | October 31 8.8% | +2.9 pts | $4.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Yes 3.7% | +0.1 pts | $3.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Justice? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 32.5% | +4.0 pts | $2.8K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Netanyahu out? | By December 31 39% | +0.5 pts | $2.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | Yes 4.4% | -1.6 pts | $2.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia? | October 5 75.5% | +41.0 pts | $2.4K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Will Iran target an Arab country? | By September 30 99.9%+ | — | $2.2K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran? | By December 31 3.2% | +0.2 pts | $2.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli Minister of National Security? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 33.5% | -4.5 pts | $2.1K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by..? | December 31 11% | +0.5 pts | $2.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes 3.2% | -0.6 pts | $2.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | Yes 8.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026? | 4 67.6% | -10.2 pts | $1.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 33.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.8K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| USS George H.W. Bush in CENTCOM? | October 31 67.5% | +3.5 pts | $1.6K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5? | 190-209 41% | +4.0 pts | $1.3K | Oct 12, 2026 |
68 smaller markets are not shown; all 108 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
🔔 Get alerts when big Middle East markets move — free Telegram watchlist
Benjamin Netanyahu · Naftali Bennett · Avigdor Lieberman · Yossi Cohen · Gadi Eizenkot · Amir Ohana · Yair Golan · Gideon Sa’ar · Benny Gantz · Moshe Feiglin · Ayelet Shaked · Yariv Levin · Nir Barkat · Yair Lapid · Itamar Ben Gvir
Iran (106) · Strait of Hormuz (23) · Israel (109) · Russia–Ukraine War (132) · China & Taiwan (74) · Venezuela (27) · Geopolitics (138)
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 108 live Middle East markets with $1.64M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? (Gadi Eizenkot 48.1%), followed by Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 14.5%), US-Iran ceasefire continues? (Through October 5 99.9%).
108 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/middle-east/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Middle East odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/middle-east/">Middle East odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/middle-east.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “Middle East odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/middle-east/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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