Home › Polymarket odds › Geopolitics & World
Updated October 6, 2026 · 131 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 131 live Russia–Ukraine War markets with $472.4K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Putin out as President of Russia? (By June 30, 2027 10.5%), followed by Will Ukraine target Moscow? (October 6 99.9%), Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka? (By June 30, 2027 59%).
The Russia–Ukraine war: ceasefire and peace-deal timing, territorial control, Putin and Zelenskyy. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
🇪🇸 Versión en español · 🇧🇷 Versão em português
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia? | By June 30, 2027 10.5% | — | $110.1K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow? | October 6 99.9% | +47.9 pts | $95.3K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka? | By June 30, 2027 59% | -5.0 pts | $45.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| NATO x Russia military clash? | By December 31 21.5% | +0.5 pts | $32.8K | Jan 3, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement? | By December 31, 2027 69% | — | $20.5K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine peace talks? | By December 31 59% | -5.5 pts | $16.6K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Confirmed pneumonic plague case in Russia? | By October 31, 2026 24.5% | -5.0 pts | $16.0K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization? | By December 31 10.5% | -0.5 pts | $11.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv? | October 6 93.5% | -0.1 pts | $9.8K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia? | By December 31, 2026 6.5% | — | $7.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting? | By December 31 85.5% | -1.0 pts | $7.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka? | By March 31, 2027 32% | — | $7.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | Druzkhivka 34.5% | +2.0 pts | $7.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | China 75.5% | -1.0 pts | $7.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia invade another country? | By December 31, 2027 15% | +1.5 pts | $6.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory? | By June 30, 2027 8.5% | — | $5.5K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka? | By March 31, 2027 63% | +2.0 pts | $5.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | Yes 1.6% | -0.1 pts | $4.6K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire? | By December 31 10.5% | — | $4.2K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv? | By December 31 23.5% | +0.5 pts | $3.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman? | By December 31 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $2.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country? | By December 31, 2026 6.0% | +0.5 pts | $2.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture all of Bilytske? | By December 31 52.5% | -5.0 pts | $2.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027? | No meeting before 2027 94% | — | $2.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again? | By December 31 87.5% | — | $2.0K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Dobropillia? | By December 31 14.5% | +0.5 pts | $2.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo | Yes 3.5% | +0.9 pts | $2.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Terny? | By December 31 37.5% | +4.0 pts | $1.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin? | By December 31 7.5% | +0.5 pts | $1.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka? | By December 31 20% | -10.5 pts | $1.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Russia military action against EU country? | By December 31, 2027 26.5% | +3.0 pts | $1.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Will Russia capture Bilytske? | By December 31 70.5% | — | $1.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast? | By June 30, 2027 10.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place? | UAE 57.5% | +8.0 pts | $1.2K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | Yes 5.0% | -1.0 pts | $1.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate? | By December 31 7.7% | -4.2 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Trump meets with Putin? | By December 31 81.5% | +0.5 pts | $1.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will Russia capture Shevchenko? | By October 31 39% | -7.0 pts | $920 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk? | By December 31 29% | +6.5 pts | $816 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes 4.5% | -0.5 pts | $808 | Jan 1, 2027 |
91 smaller markets are not shown; all 131 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
🔔 Get alerts when big Russia–Ukraine War markets move — free Telegram watchlist
Kanye West · Donald Trump · JD Vance · António Guterres · Mark Carney · Emmanuel Macron · Ursula von der Leyen
Iran (109) · Strait of Hormuz (23) · Israel (109) · Middle East (111) · China & Taiwan (74) · Venezuela (27) · Geopolitics (141)
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 131 live Russia–Ukraine War markets with $472.4K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Putin out as President of Russia? (By June 30, 2027 10.5%), followed by Will Ukraine target Moscow? (October 6 99.9%), Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka? (By June 30, 2027 59%).
131 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Paste this on your site or newsletter — it shows the five most-traded Russia–Ukraine War markets and updates twice a day.
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/russia-ukraine/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Russia–Ukraine War odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/russia-ukraine/">Russia–Ukraine War odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/russia-ukraine.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
Markdown for READMEs and newsletters:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/russia-ukraine/)
Polymarket View, “Russia–Ukraine War odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/russia-ukraine/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog