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Israel Odds on Polymarket
Updated October 6, 2026 · 109 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Israel: elections, Netanyahu, Gaza and the regional conflict. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Israel markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 15.5% | — | $449.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? | Gadi Eizenkot 46.8% | +0.9 pts | $331.6K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues? | Through October 5 99.9% | +1.2 pts | $219.0K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues? | Through October 9 98.8% | — | $129.5K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $129.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | Yes 9.5% | +5.0 pts | $122.4K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Israel military action against Lebanon? | October 5 98.7% | +1.7 pts | $73.2K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Israeli Legislative Election Winner | Yashar 50.5% | +8.0 pts | $42.1K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? | Somaliland 15.5% | +7.0 pts | $36.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel Election: Likud # of seats? | 20-24 35.5% | -2.0 pts | $35.7K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31? | Kaitlan Collins 99.8% | — | $12.6K | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes 2.7% | -1.8 pts | $7.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Defense? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 31% | -4.4 pts | $7.6K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 33.5% | — | $6.2K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Netanyahu out? | By December 31 38.5% | -3.0 pts | $6.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures) | December 31 16.5% | -2.0 pts | $5.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which parties will be in the next Israeli government? | Together 66.5% | +18.5 pts | $4.5K | Jun 30, 2027 |
| Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | Yes 44.5% | +7.0 pts | $3.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Next Israeli Minister of Justice? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 32.5% | -1.0 pts | $3.0K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | Yes 4.4% | -1.6 pts | $2.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israeli election results in a hung parliament? | Yes 32.5% | -3.5 pts | $2.5K | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | Yes 8.5% | — | $2.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place | Together 61.5% | — | $2.2K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Israeli Legislative Election: 2nd Place | Likud 44% | — | $2.2K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Next Israeli Minister of National Security? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 32.5% | -4.5 pts | $2.1K | Mar 1, 2027 |
| Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo | Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems 35% | — | $2.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| Will Israel election happen as scheduled? | Yes 88.2% | -4.5 pts | $1.9K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections? | Ra'am 95.2% | +0.4 pts | $1.8K | Oct 27, 2026 |
| How many Israeli elections before government formed? | 1 66% | — | $1.6K | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran? | By December 31 2.1% | -1.0 pts | $1.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? | Yes 23.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026? | 4 66.7% | -11.2 pts | $1.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31? | Yes 5.0% | -1.0 pts | $1.2K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Israel election: will Likud lose seats? | Yes 95% | +2.5 pts | $1.1K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027? | Italy 11.5% | -1.5 pts | $1.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election? | No Endorsement 84% | +1.0 pts | $1.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? | Yes 17.5% | -7.5 pts | $834 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Israel military action against Yemen? | By December 31 29.5% | -2.5 pts | $828 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy? | By December 31 5.5% | -1.1 pts | $767 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share? | 4-5% 29% | -6.5 pts | $742 | Oct 27, 2026 |
69 smaller markets are not shown; all 109 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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People in these markets
Benjamin Netanyahu · Naftali Bennett · Avigdor Lieberman · Yossi Cohen · Gadi Eizenkot · Amir Ohana · Yair Golan · Gideon Sa’ar · Benny Gantz · Moshe Feiglin · Ayelet Shaked · Yariv Levin · Nir Barkat · Yair Lapid · Itamar Ben Gvir
More Geopolitics & World odds
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Israel odds on Polymarket today?
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 109 live Israel markets with $1.67M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (Yes 15.5%), followed by Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? (Gadi Eizenkot 46.8%), US-Iran ceasefire continues? (Through October 5 99.9%).
How many Israel markets are open on Polymarket?
109 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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Polymarket View, “Israel odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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