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Probabilidades de Brasil en Polymarket
Actualizado el 6 de octubre de 2026 · 44 mercados abiertos · se actualiza dos veces al día
Mercados abiertos
Ordenados por volumen de las últimas 24 horas. Los títulos están en inglés, como en Polymarket.
| Mercado | Resultado líder | Cambio 24 h | Volumen 24 h | Cierre |
|---|
| Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | Yes 18,5 % | -1,0 pp | US$ 10 mil | 1 ene 2027 |
| Bank of Brazil decision in December? | 25 bps decrease 46,5 % | -22,0 pp | US$ 10 mil | 9 dic 2026 |
| Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president? | By October 15 2,6 % | +0,1 pp | US$ 8 mil | 16 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory | Flávio Bolsonaro <4% 52,5 % | — | US$ 7 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)? | 0.0% to 0.2% 49 % | +30,5 pp | US$ 6 mil | 2 dic 2026 |
| Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil? | Flávio Bolsonaro 57,5 % | -3,5 pp | US$ 5 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Espírito Santo | Flavio Bolsonaro 94,5 % | — | US$ 4 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Roraima | Flavio Bolsonaro 98,5 % | — | US$ 4 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul | Flavio Bolsonaro 97,8 % | — | US$ 4 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Annual Inflation 2026 | 5.00-5.49% 44 % | -5,2 pp | US$ 4 mil | 13 ene 2027 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad | Lula 63,5 % | — | US$ 3 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by October 31? | Yes 29,3 % | +25,4 pp | US$ 3 mil | 1 nov 2026 |
| Bank of Brazil decision in November? | 25 bps decrease 73,5 % | +1,0 pp | US$ 3 mil | 4 nov 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rondônia | Flavio Bolsonaro 99 % | — | US$ 3 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte | Lula 97,8 % | — | US$ 2 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas | Lula 57,5 % | — | US$ 2 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout | 78-80% 46 % | — | US$ 2 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in São Paulo | Flavio Bolsonaro 95,9 % | — | US$ 2 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul | Flavio Bolsonaro 98,5 % | — | US$ 2 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rio de Janeiro | Flavio Bolsonaro 90,5 % | — | US$ 2 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo | Bolsonaro, Eizenkot, Dems 35 % | — | US$ 2 mil | 4 nov 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Paraíba | Lula 98,5 % | — | US$ 2 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Bahia | Lula 93,2 % | — | US$ 2 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? | Yes 2,2 % | -1,1 pp | US$ 2 mil | 1 ene 2027 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Acre | Flavio Bolsonaro 98,4 % | — | US$ 2 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso | Flavio Bolsonaro 98 % | — | US$ 2 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Piauí | Lula 98 % | — | US$ 2 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Paraná | Flavio Bolsonaro 98,5 % | — | US$ 1 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará | Lula 69 % | — | US$ 1 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Santa Catarina | Flavio Bolsonaro 98,5 % | — | US$ 1 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pernambuco | Lula 98,7 % | — | US$ 1 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Alagoas | Lula 92,5 % | — | US$ 1 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Tocantins | Flavio Bolsonaro 97,2 % | — | US$ 1 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais | Flavio Bolsonaro 88,5 % | — | US$ 1 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Maranhão | Lula 98,9 % | — | US$ 1 mil | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Sergipe | Lula 98 % | — | US$ 973 | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Goiás | Flavio Bolsonaro 98,5 % | — | US$ 918 | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá | Flavio Bolsonaro 71,5 % | — | US$ 759 | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Federal District | Flavio Bolsonaro 97 % | — | US$ 679 | 26 oct 2026 |
| Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Ceará | Lula 97,5 % | — | US$ 347 | 26 oct 2026 |
En los mercados con varios resultados se muestra el de mayor precio; en los de sí/no, el precio del “sí”. Datos públicos de Polymarket; no es asesoramiento financiero.
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Preguntas frecuentes
¿Cuáles son las probabilidades de Brasil en Polymarket hoy?
A 6 de octubre de 2026, Polymarket tiene 44 mercados abiertos sobre Brasil, con US$ 115 mil negociados en las últimas 24 horas. El más activo es Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? (Yes 18,5 %), seguido de Bank of Brazil decision in December? (25 bps decrease 46,5 %), Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president? (By October 15 2,6 %).
¿Qué significan estas probabilidades?
Son los precios de las participaciones de cada resultado: una participación a 60 centavos paga 1 dólar si el hecho ocurre, así que el mercado estima alrededor de un 60 % de probabilidad. No son cotizaciones ejecutables ni una encuesta.
¿Cada cuánto se actualiza esta página?
Dos veces al día, con los datos públicos de Polymarket. Polymarket View es un sitio independiente, sin relación con Polymarket.
English version · Qué es Polymarket · Polymarket View es un sitio independiente, sin relación con Polymarket.