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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 27, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Pause-Hike-Pause at 46.5%, followed by Pause-Hike-Hike at 12.5%, Pause-Pause-Pause at 9.0%. The market has $23.3K in total volume and $4.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pause-Hike-Pause | 46.5% | -4.0 pts | $13.2K |
| Pause-Hike-Hike | 12.5% | +2.0 pts | $7.2K |
| Pause-Pause-Pause | 9.0% | — | $362 |
| Other | 7.5% | — | $432 |
| Pause-Pause-Hike | 4.0% | — | $475 |
| Hike-Hike-Pause | 4.0% | -2.7 pts | $358 |
| Hike-Hike-Hike | 3.8% | — | $194 |
| Hike-Pause-Hike | 2.5% | — | $598 |
| Hike-Pause-Pause | 1.5% | — | $453 |
Total volume $23.3K · 24h volume $4.3K · Liquidity $32.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Pause-Hike-Pause ■ Pause-Hike-Hike ■ Pause-Pause-Pause · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Fed & Interest Rates odds · Inflation & CPI odds · US Economy odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Pause-Hike-Pause at 46.5%, followed by Pause-Hike-Hike at 12.5%, Pause-Pause-Pause at 9.0%. The market has $23.3K in total volume and $4.3K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 27, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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