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Fed & Interest Rates Odds on Polymarket

Updated October 6, 2026 · 49 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 49 live Fed & Interest Rates markets with $1.73M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Fed Decision in October? (No change 80.5%), followed by Fed Decision in December? (25 bps increase 74.5%), How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? (5.4% 73.5%).

Federal Reserve decisions: cuts and hikes at each FOMC meeting, the path of rates and the Fed chair. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

🏦 Fed rate odds by meeting: every upcoming FOMC decision in one table (cut, hold, hike) with the market-implied change in basis points.

🇪🇸 Versión en español · 🇧🇷 Versão em português

Live Fed & Interest Rates markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Fed Decision in October?No change 80.5%-2.0 pts$1.51MOct 29, 2026
Fed Decision in December?25 bps increase 74.5%+3.0 pts$51.1KDec 10, 2026
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.4% 73.5%+22.0 pts$49.8KJan 1, 2027
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes 77.5%+2.0 pts$23.9KDec 10, 2026
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?0 (0 bps) 95.9%-0.1 pts$21.7KJan 1, 2027
Fed Decision in January?No change 57.5%-7.0 pts$13.9KJan 28, 2027
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.70% 90.5%+22.5 pts$9.8KDec 31, 2026
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?2 (50 bps) 64.5%+3.0 pts$8.7KJan 1, 2027
Reserve Bank of India decision in October25 bps increase 75%-8.5 pts$7.6KOct 7, 2026
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026No change 93%-0.5 pts$4.9KOct 30, 2026
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?4.25% 59.7%+12.3 pts$3.5KJan 1, 2027
Fed rate cut?By July 2027 Meeting 53%—$3.4KJan 29, 2028
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?5.10% 92.5%+11.5 pts$2.7KDec 31, 2026
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? ↑ 4.25% 76.8%+5.5 pts$2.3KDec 31, 2026
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?Below 5.18% 47.5%-14.0 pts$2.0KNov 1, 2026
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)Hike–Pause–Hike 59.5%-1.0 pts$1.7KDec 9, 2026
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?Below 5.52% 47.5%-9.0 pts$1.7KNov 1, 2026
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?5.32% 90.8%+14.8 pts$1.4KNov 1, 2026
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?Below 4.7% 14.5%—$1.1KJan 1, 2027
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?Below 4.95% 52.5%-8.0 pts$1.1KNov 1, 2026
How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?4.90% 81.5%—$1.0KJan 1, 2027
Bank of England decision in November?25 bps increase 85.5%-1.0 pts$1.0KNov 5, 2026
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?5.08% 89.5%+13.5 pts$958Nov 1, 2026
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?December 31 17%+1.0 pts$951Jan 1, 2027
How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?4.92% 82%+17.5 pts$831Nov 1, 2026
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)Pause-Hike-Pause 50.5%-0.5 pts$731Jan 27, 2027
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?Below 5.20% 30.5%-0.5 pts$676Dec 31, 2026
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Yes 5.7%+2.5 pts$648Jan 1, 2027
How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?3 30.5%+14.0 pts$570Oct 28, 2026
Reserve Bank of India decision in December25 bps increase 46%-1.0 pts$570Dec 4, 2026
How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?0 60%+0.5 pts$567Jan 28, 2027
How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?Below 4.70% 68%-0.5 pts$480Jan 1, 2027
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?5.67% 96.5%+46.6 pts$436Nov 1, 2026
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?4.75% 16.5%—$145Jan 1, 2028
Trump publicly insults Warsh?By December 31 17.5%+1.0 pts$120Jan 1, 2027
Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 20263.0%+ 80.4%+0.4 pts$118Feb 1, 2027
How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?Below 4.64% 63%+9.5 pts$106Nov 1, 2026
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?June 30, 2027 9.5%—$101Jul 1, 2027
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?No change 82.5%-2.0 pts$80Oct 27, 2026
ECB Interest Rates: December 202625 bps increase 74.5%—$71Dec 17, 2026

9 smaller markets are not shown; all 49 are in the JSON data.

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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How these markets work: Fed decision markets · Economic data markets · Parlay-style markets.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Fed & Interest Rates odds on Polymarket today?

As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 49 live Fed & Interest Rates markets with $1.73M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Fed Decision in October? (No change 80.5%), followed by Fed Decision in December? (25 bps increase 74.5%), How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? (5.4% 73.5%).

How many Fed & Interest Rates markets are open on Polymarket?

49 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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