{
 "slug": "iran",
 "topic": "Iran",
 "category": "geopolitics",
 "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran/",
 "updated": "2026-10-06T00:50:00+00:00",
 "count": 109,
 "volume_24h": 2811362.5,
 "polymarket_tags": [
  "iran",
  "trump-iran",
  "us-iran",
  "israel-x-iran",
  "iranian-leadership-regime",
  "khamenei",
  "diplomacy-ceasefire"
 ],
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  {
   "title": "US announces end of Iranian blockade?",
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  {
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  {
   "title": "US-Iran ceasefire continues?",
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  {
   "title": "Will Iran target Iraq?",
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  {
   "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
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   "title": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed?",
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   "leader": "By December 31",
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  {
   "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues?",
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  {
   "title": "Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-accuses-iranproxies-of-plane-stabbing-incident-by-oct-31",
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  {
   "title": "Iran leadership change?",
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   "title": "Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts?",
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   "title": "Israel military action against Lebanon?",
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  {
   "title": "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?",
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  {
   "title": "Crude Oil all time high?",
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   "leader": "By December 31",
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  },
  {
   "title": "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-by-march-31",
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  {
   "title": "Houthis enter Aden?",
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   "volume": 438975.07,
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  {
   "title": "Saudi airspace closed?",
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   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.155,
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   "volume": 79190.37,
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  },
  {
   "title": "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement?",
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   "leader": "By December 31",
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  },
  {
   "title": "Iran leader end of 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leader-end-of-2026",
   "leader": "Mojtaba Khamenei",
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  },
  {
   "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-november-30-20260810151158765",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.1,
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   "volume": 605459.43,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Will Iran target an Arab country?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-an-arab-country-by-20260909",
   "leader": "By September 30",
   "probability": 0.9995,
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   "volume_24h": 21979.09,
   "volume": 160278.09,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-attend-a-round-of-us-iran-peace-talks-by-december-31-20260812153824803",
   "leader": "Steve Witkoff",
   "probability": 0.5,
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   "volume_24h": 18760.37,
   "volume": 1259124.29,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Perim Island no longer under Houthi control?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/perim-island-no-longer-under-houthi-control-by-20260916",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.31,
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   "volume_24h": 15349.88,
   "volume": 68906.88,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-october-31-20260810151043583",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0245,
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   "volume_24h": 11941.1,
   "volume": 1756682.09,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By December 31, 2026",
   "probability": 0.46,
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   "volume": 571657.55,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-lebanon-normalize-relations-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.027,
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   "volume": 248371.13,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Iran full airspace closure?",
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   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.2,
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  },
  {
   "title": "IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iaea-visits-isfahan-fordow-or-natanz-nuclear-site-by-july-31-20260624040209014",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.145,
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   "volume": 405976.48,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-bab-el-mandeb-strait-end-of-october",
   "leader": "25-29",
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   "volume": 11596.09,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)",
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   "leader": "December 31",
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   "volume": 194389.46,
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  },
  {
   "title": "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium?",
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   "volume": 29525940.45,
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  },
  {
   "title": "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?",
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   "leader": "≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)",
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  },
  {
   "title": "EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/eu-emergency-diesel-stocks-end-of-october-2026",
   "leader": "30M+",
   "probability": 0.963,
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   "volume": 26234.98,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Houthis enter Saudi Arabia?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-enter-saudi-arabia-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.26,
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  },
  {
   "title": "Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/where-will-the-next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-take-placeptptpt",
   "leader": "No Meeting by December 31",
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  {
   "title": "Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?",
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  },
  {
   "title": "Iran Nuke before 2027?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-nuke-before-2027",
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  },
  {
   "title": "Iran charges Hormuz fees?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran-charges-hormuz-fees/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466",
   "leader": "By December 31",
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  {
   "title": "EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/eu-emergency-diesel-stocks-end-of-november-2026",
   "leader": "30M+",
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  {
   "title": "Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia?",
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  },
  {
   "title": "USD x Iranian rials End of December?",
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   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/usd-x-iranian-rials-end-of-december",
   "leader": "3.0 - 3.5M",
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   "volume": 102844.12,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/0-ships-transit-hormuz-on-any-date-byptpt/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/0-ships-transit-hormuz-on-any-date-byptpt-20260626172559966",
   "leader": "October 31",
   "probability": 0.355,
   "change_24h": 0.07,
   "volume_24h": 2247.37,
   "volume": 898779.4,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "IEA asks Germany to release oil stocks?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iea-asks-germany-to-release-oil-stocks-byptptpt",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iea-asks-germany-to-release-oil-stocks-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.525,
   "change_24h": 0.215,
   "volume_24h": 2128.92,
   "volume": 2414.21,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.032,
   "change_24h": -0.006,
   "volume_24h": 1994.92,
   "volume": 641226.14,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.13,
   "change_24h": -0.015,
   "volume_24h": 1906.66,
   "volume": 2785040.37,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-october-5",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-october-5",
   "leader": "25-29",
   "probability": 0.315,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 1796.1,
   "volume": 8267.43,
   "end_date": "2026-10-12T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/eu-emergency-diesel-stocks-end-of-december-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/eu-emergency-diesel-stocks-end-of-december-2026",
   "leader": "30M+",
   "probability": 0.815,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 1737.64,
   "volume": 21627.26,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US military draft authorized in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/us-military-draft-authorized-in-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-military-draft-authorized-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0395,
   "change_24h": 0.0025,
   "volume_24h": 1476.09,
   "volume": 536859.22,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-october-5",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-october-5",
   "leader": "170-189",
   "probability": 0.485,
   "change_24h": 0.265,
   "volume_24h": 1412.83,
   "volume": 4697.47,
   "end_date": "2026-10-12T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will the US officially declare war on Iran?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.021,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 1384.99,
   "volume": 7833384.17,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-the-end-of-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.235,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume_24h": 1353.56,
   "volume": 13809.78,
   "end_date": "2028-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026",
   "leader": "4",
   "probability": 0.667,
   "change_24h": -0.1115,
   "volume_24h": 1240.01,
   "volume": 7569446.32,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-airspace-closed-between-octpt-15-and-octpt-31",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israeli-airspace-closed-between-octpt-15-and-octpt-31",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.05,
   "change_24h": -0.01,
   "volume_24h": 1228.0,
   "volume": 2779.24,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/which-month-will-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return-to-normal/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-month-will-strait-of-hormuz-traffic-return-to-normal-20260702155718114",
   "leader": "No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026",
   "probability": 0.825,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume_24h": 1105.67,
   "volume": 546641.69,
   "end_date": "2027-02-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-october",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-october",
   "leader": "0-5",
   "probability": 0.715,
   "change_24h": 0.06,
   "volume_24h": 1048.2,
   "volume": 5945.75,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-on-october-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/shipping-successfully-targeted-in-hormuz-on-october-2026",
   "leader": "October 4",
   "probability": 0.945,
   "change_24h": 0.375,
   "volume_24h": 939.47,
   "volume": 2555.61,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Houthi military action against Mecca?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-20260916",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-mecca-by-20260916",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.07,
   "change_24h": 0.015,
   "volume_24h": 879.05,
   "volume": 6105.77,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T20:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-any-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-december-31/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-country-expel-an-israeli-ambassador-by-december-31",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.175,
   "change_24h": -0.075,
   "volume_24h": 834.32,
   "volume": 55896.54,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T16:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel military action against Yemen?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-military-action-against-yemen/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-yemen-byptptpt-20260714001321874",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.295,
   "change_24h": -0.025,
   "volume_24h": 828.26,
   "volume": 327014.89,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T20:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Iran target Jordan?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-jordan-by-20260909",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-jordan-by-20260909",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.3,
   "change_24h": -0.05,
   "volume_24h": 721.37,
   "volume": 11039.56,
   "end_date": "2026-10-31T20:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel withdraws from Lebanon?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by",
   "leader": "By June 30, 2027",
   "probability": 0.22,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 717.09,
   "volume": 8505501.29,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "USD x Iranian rials End of October?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/usd-x-iranian-rials-end-of-october/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/usd-x-iranian-rials-end-of-october",
   "leader": "2.8M+",
   "probability": 0.765,
   "change_24h": 0.03,
   "volume_24h": 681.1,
   "volume": 24775.28,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.185,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 602.27,
   "volume": 7294890.33,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-by-october-30",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-us-crude-oil-reserves-fall-to-by-october-30",
   "leader": "280M",
   "probability": 0.81,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume_24h": 539.19,
   "volume": 12220.38,
   "end_date": "2026-11-12T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-december-31/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-december-31",
   "leader": "US",
   "probability": 0.44,
   "change_24h": 0.175,
   "volume_24h": 536.57,
   "volume": 50740.67,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/us-reissues-iran-oil-sales-sanction-relief/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-reissues-iran-oil-sales-sanction-relief-byptptpt-20260708142359046",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.12,
   "change_24h": 0.015,
   "volume_24h": 430.91,
   "volume": 410951.1,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.215,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 430.32,
   "volume": 487001.85,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-reza-pahlavi-lead-iran-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0305,
   "change_24h": -0.002,
   "volume_24h": 412.2,
   "volume": 11769454.47,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-by-20260918",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-by-20260918",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.905,
   "change_24h": 0.025,
   "volume_24h": 400.92,
   "volume": 6270.01,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/0-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-on-any-date-by",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/0-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-on-any-date-by",
   "leader": "December 31",
   "probability": 0.16,
   "change_24h": -0.005,
   "volume_24h": 389.14,
   "volume": 13195.28,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-invokes-war-powers-in-yemen-by-october-31",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-invokes-war-powers-in-yemen-by-october-31",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.06,
   "change_24h": 0.003,
   "volume_24h": 370.0,
   "volume": 2282.95,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "IEA asks France to release oil stocks?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iea-asks-france-to-release-oil-stocks-byptptpt",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iea-asks-france-to-release-oil-stocks-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.635,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 338.57,
   "volume": 1939.16,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Houthi military action against Israel?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/houthi-military-action-against-israel/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-israel-byptptpt-20260714210303206",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.29,
   "change_24h": 0.12,
   "volume_24h": 324.65,
   "volume": 244582.43,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-imposes-new-sanctions-on-china-by-october-31",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-imposes-new-sanctions-on-china-by-october-31",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.06,
   "change_24h": -0.06,
   "volume_24h": 281.12,
   "volume": 929.51,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-united-arab-emirates-byptptpt-20260907",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-united-arab-emirates-byptptpt-20260907",
   "leader": "By November 30",
   "probability": 0.635,
   "change_24h": 0.11,
   "volume_24h": 267.9,
   "volume": 14788.05,
   "end_date": "2026-11-30T19:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.125,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 230.96,
   "volume": 1885797.64,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to \"Strait of Trump\" by December 31?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/trump-renames-strait-of-hormuz-to-strait-of-trump-by-december-31/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-renames-strait-of-hormuz-to-strait-of-trump-by-december-31",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0235,
   "change_24h": -0.0015,
   "volume_24h": 218.0,
   "volume": 111369.6,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Houthis successfully target shipping?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/houthis-successfully-target-shipping-byl/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-successfully-target-shipping-bylptptpt",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.385,
   "change_24h": -0.17,
   "volume_24h": 211.46,
   "volume": 129271.53,
   "end_date": "2026-10-31T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/trump-issues-ai-restrictions-executive-order/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-issues-ai-restrictions-executive-order-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.12,
   "change_24h": -0.05,
   "volume_24h": 188.08,
   "volume": 23060.81,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Iran target Oman?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-iran-target-oman/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-oman-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By November 30",
   "probability": 0.055,
   "change_24h": -0.175,
   "volume_24h": 157.5,
   "volume": 44393.55,
   "end_date": "2026-11-30T19:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-country-expel-a-us-ambassador-by-december-31",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-country-expel-a-us-ambassador-by-december-31",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.145,
   "change_24h": -0.04,
   "volume_24h": 154.34,
   "volume": 33189.56,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T16:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/mohammed-ghalibaf-out-as-speaker-of-iran-parliament/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/mohammed-ghalibaf-out-as-speaker-of-iran-parliament-byptptpt-20260709235401297",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.16,
   "change_24h": 0.025,
   "volume_24h": 152.73,
   "volume": 59392.76,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Houthis seize an oil tanker?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/houthis-seize-an-oil-tanker/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/houthis-seize-an-oil-tanker-by",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.065,
   "change_24h": -0.03,
   "volume_24h": 150.96,
   "volume": 143953.44,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-october-31",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-october-31",
   "leader": "10+",
   "probability": 0.255,
   "change_24h": -0.15,
   "volume_24h": 150.0,
   "volume": 1285.98,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Iran target Saudi Arabia?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-saudi-arabia-byptptpt",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-saudi-arabia-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By November 30",
   "probability": 0.225,
   "change_24h": 0.06,
   "volume_24h": 148.61,
   "volume": 93921.4,
   "end_date": "2026-11-30T20:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-ground-operation-in-iran-confirmed/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-ground-operation-in-iran-confirmed-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.095,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 140.87,
   "volume": 1750930.17,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel military action against Syria?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-military-action-against-syria-by-21/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-syria-byptptpt-21",
   "leader": "By November 30",
   "probability": 0.71,
   "change_24h": 0.245,
   "volume_24h": 137.4,
   "volume": 79293.1,
   "end_date": "2026-11-30T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.075,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 134.14,
   "volume": 18015808.66,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Israel military action against Beirut?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-military-action-against-beirut/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-beirut-byptptpt-20260708221422557",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.06,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 122.1,
   "volume": 409944.26,
   "end_date": "2026-10-31T20:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0225,
   "change_24h": 0.0015,
   "volume_24h": 115.86,
   "volume": 195270.23,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-iran-withdraw-from-the-npt-before-2027/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-withdraw-from-the-npt-before-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.1095,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 105.16,
   "volume": 601456.29,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.0435,
   "change_24h": -0.0005,
   "volume_24h": 92.04,
   "volume": 22155104.69,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Putin meets with Iranian officials by December 31?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/putin-meets-with-iranian-officials-by-december-31",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/putin-meets-with-iranian-officials-by-december-31",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.96,
   "change_24h": -0.003,
   "volume_24h": 91.21,
   "volume": 18777.49,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30-2027",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30-2027",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.155,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 84.04,
   "volume": 8235.55,
   "end_date": "2027-07-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Iran target Qatar?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-iran-target-qatar/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-target-qatar-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.075,
   "change_24h": -0.025,
   "volume_24h": 82.83,
   "volume": 145928.73,
   "end_date": "2026-10-31T20:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Another Iranian Ambassador expelled?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/another-iranian-diplomat-expelled/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/another-iranian-diplomat-expelled-byptptpt",
   "leader": "By October 31",
   "probability": 0.21,
   "change_24h": 0.11,
   "volume_24h": 73.75,
   "volume": 45063.4,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Iran coup attempt?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-coup-attempt-by-june-30",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.095,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 57.6,
   "volume": 2145530.46,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/abbas-araghchi-out-as-minister-of-foreign-affairs-of-iran/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/abbas-araghchi-out-as-minister-of-foreign-affairs-of-iran-byptptpt-20260709234123315",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.085,
   "change_24h": 0.005,
   "volume_24h": 53.33,
   "volume": 81524.59,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US x Russia military clash?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/us-x-russia-military-clash/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-russia-military-clash-by",
   "leader": "By December 31, 2026",
   "probability": 0.0365,
   "change_24h": 0.0015,
   "volume_24h": 32.6,
   "volume": 1806917.52,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-blockade-lifted-before-iran-oman-hormuz-agreement",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-blockade-lifted-before-iran-oman-hormuz-agreement",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.255,
   "change_24h": 0.01,
   "volume_24h": 16.08,
   "volume": 19442.42,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-the-us-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0315,
   "change_24h": -0.001,
   "volume_24h": 0.22,
   "volume": 160836.06,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US charges Hormuz fees?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/us-charges-hormuz-fees/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260713151243232",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.04,
   "change_24h": -0.0005,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 986699.26,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Iran hold a presidential election?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-iran-hold-a-presidential-election-by-june-30/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-hold-a-presidential-election-by-june-30",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.085,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 767451.82,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/will-trump-talk-to-mojtaba-khamenei-by-march-31/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-talk-to-mojtaba-khamenei-by-march-31",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.0325,
   "change_24h": 0.006,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 626708.48,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Total Internet Blackout in Iran?",
   "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/total-internet-blackout-in-iran/",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/total-internet-blackout-in-iran-byptptpt-20260720155238426",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.205,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 251800.09,
   "end_date": "2026-12-31T23:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-meets-with-mojtaba-khamenei-by",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/trump-meets-with-mojtaba-khamenei-by",
   "leader": "By December 31",
   "probability": 0.0245,
   "change_24h": -0.0005,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 200388.75,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/congress-approves-iran-deal-in-2026-20260616005217959",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/congress-approves-iran-deal-in-2026-20260616005217959",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.13,
   "change_24h": null,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 13193.56,
   "end_date": "2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-october-31",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-october-31",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.031,
   "change_24h": -0.0015,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 892.46,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  },
  {
   "title": "US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Oct 31?",
   "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-withdrawal-from-al-udeid-air-base-by-oct-31",
   "polymarket_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-withdrawal-from-al-udeid-air-base-by-oct-31",
   "leader": "Yes",
   "probability": 0.0645,
   "change_24h": 0.0325,
   "volume_24h": 0.0,
   "volume": 252.81,
   "end_date": "2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00"
  }
 ],
 "license": "CC BY 4.0",
 "license_url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": {
  "required": true,
  "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com",
  "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran/",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/iran/\">Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com</a>"
 },
 "source": "Polymarket public Gamma API; not affiliated with Polymarket."
}