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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 18.5%, followed by By October 31 at 7.0%. The market has $7.29M in total volume and $602 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 18.5% | — | $643.4K |
| By October 31 | 7.0% | — | $54.6K |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.3 pts | $1.89M |
| By July 15 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.6 pts | $1.20M |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $655.1K |
| By March 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $615.8K |
| By April 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.7 pts | $613.0K |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $532.8K |
| By September 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $477.6K |
| By May 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.7 pts | $455.5K |
| By June 26 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.5 pts | $103.6K |
| By June 19 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.7 pts | $58.7K |
| By March 13 (settled) | 0.0% | — | — |
| By March 16 (settled) | 0.0% | — | — |
Total volume $7.29M · 24h volume $602 · Liquidity $57.4K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By October 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Israel odds · Middle East odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 18.5%, followed by By October 31 at 7.0%. The market has $7.29M in total volume and $602 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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