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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: December 31, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Mojtaba Khamenei at 88.3%, followed by No Head of State at 5.7%, Reza Pahlavi at 2.8%. The market has $39.86M in total volume and $24.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 88.3% | +1.1 pts | $6.66M |
| No Head of State | 5.7% | +1.0 pts | $1.17M |
| Reza Pahlavi | 2.8% | -0.1 pts | $696.1K |
| Alireza Arafi | 0.9% | +0.1 pts | $2.32M |
| Hassan Rouhani | 0.5% | — | $949.3K |
| Mahmoud Ahmadinejad | 0.4% | — | $1.13M |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $1.03M |
| Abbas Araghchi | 0.4% | +0.1 pts | $837.6K |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 0.4% | — | $925.8K |
| Maryam Rajavi | 0.3% | — | $905.1K |
| Ahmad Vahidi | 0.2% | — | $783.5K |
| Hassan Khomeini | 0.1% | — | $1.45M |
| Muhammad Mirbaqiri | 0.1% | — | $468.7K |
| Navid Shomali | 0.1% | — | $258.8K |
| Sadegh Larijani | 0.1% | — | $570.5K |
17 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $39.86M · 24h volume $24.8K · Liquidity $2.45M. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Mojtaba Khamenei ■ No Head of State ■ Reza Pahlavi · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Middle East odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Mojtaba Khamenei at 88.3%, followed by No Head of State at 5.7%, Reza Pahlavi at 2.8%. The market has $39.86M in total volume and $24.8K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is December 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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