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Donald Trump odds on Polymarket

Updated October 6, 2026 · 177 live markets · refreshed twice a day

Donald Trump appears in 177 live Polymarket markets with $51.93M traded. The biggest: Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? at 0.4%; Presidential Election Winner 2028 at 1.4%; Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? at 1.6%. Prices are traders' implied chances, updated twice a day.

Every live market on Donald Trump

MarketChance24hVolumeEnds
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?0.4%—$13.89M2028-11-08
Presidential Election Winner 20281.4%+0.1 pts$10.68M2028-11-08
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1.6%—$9.74M2028-11-08
Republican Presidential Nominee 20281.9%—$9.63M2028-11-08
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 20260.7%-0.1 pts$6.01M2027-04-01
Venezuela leader end of 2026?<0.1%—$1.15M2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?3.9%-0.2 pts$87.1K2026-12-31
#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?4.5%—$70.8K2027-04-01
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?4.7%+0.1 pts$68.4K2027-01-01
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?3.5%—$47.0K2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?6.5%—$42.4K2027-01-02
Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?0.8%-0.1 pts$32.8K2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?12%+3.0 pts$31.8K2027-01-02
Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?6.0%-2.5 pts$30.8K2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?14%-1.0 pts$25.3K2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?0.1%-0.3 pts$22.2K2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?17%—$20.9K2027-01-02
Will Donald Trump visit Oregon in 2026?13.9%-3.7 pts$20.3K2027-01-02
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026?7.0%+1.5 pts$16.9K2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2026?7.0%+1.5 pts$15.4K2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?7.4%+0.3 pts$13.2K2026-12-31
TIME Person of the Year 20267.0%-0.5 pts$12.7K2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?4.5%-6.6 pts$12.6K2026-10-06
Will Donald Trump visit New Hampshire in 2026?52%+0.5 pts$11.1K2027-01-02
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?11%-20.5 pts$9.2K2026-10-06
Will Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?1.8%-1.7 pts$9.0K2027-01-01
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?57.8%+36.2 pts$8.9K2026-10-06
Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026?4.5%—$8.4K2027-01-02
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026?5.8%—$7.5K2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?26%-17.0 pts$7.2K2026-10-09
Will Donald Trump visit Mississippi in 2026?50.5%-0.5 pts$6.3K2027-01-02
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2026?6.0%+0.5 pts$6.1K2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?30%-10.5 pts$6.0K2026-10-06
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?23.5%+11.5 pts$5.3K2026-10-09
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by October 31, 2026?36%-10.0 pts$5.2K2026-10-31
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by October 31, 2026?58%+31.5 pts$4.9K2026-10-31
Will Donald Trump visit Vermont in 2026?8.0%-7.5 pts$4.8K2027-01-02
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026?7.0%+1.0 pts$4.7K2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2026?4.1%+0.5 pts$4.6K2026-12-31
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?21%-1.0 pts$3.8K2026-10-09

For list markets (nominees, winners, appointments) the chance is Donald Trump's own outcome; for Yes/No questions it is the Yes price. Free JSON: /api/v1/people/donald-trump.json (CC BY 4.0).

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Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.

Polymarket View, “Donald Trump odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/person/donald-trump/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

Frequently asked questions

What are Donald Trump's odds on Polymarket?

Donald Trump appears in 177 live Polymarket markets with $51.93M traded. The biggest: Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? at 0.4%; Presidential Election Winner 2028 at 1.4%; Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? at 1.6%. Prices are traders' implied chances, updated twice a day.

Which Polymarket market has the most money on Donald Trump?

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?: 0.4% with $13.89M traded, as of October 6, 2026.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data, refreshed twice a day. A price of 30% means traders pay 30 cents for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket.

Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All people · All Polymarket odds