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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 5.5%, followed by By October 31 at 1.1%. The market has $75.43M in total volume and $49.7K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31 | 5.5% | -1.0 pts | $634.4K |
| By October 31 | 1.1% | -0.1 pts | $273.2K |
| By April 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $17.37M |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $13.46M |
| By May 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $11.19M |
| By April 15 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $8.45M |
| By March 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $7.79M |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $6.27M |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $5.92M |
| By September 30 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $2.96M |
| By June 24 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $1.12M |
Total volume $75.43M · 24h volume $49.7K · Liquidity $359.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31 ■ By October 31 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Strait of Hormuz odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31 at 5.5%, followed by By October 31 at 1.1%. The market has $75.43M in total volume and $49.7K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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