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Updated October 6, 2026 · 140 live markets · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 140 live US Economy markets with $1.62M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Fed Decision in October? (No change 81.5%), followed by How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? (5.4% 59%), Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? (Yes 18.5%).
The US economy: GDP growth, jobs reports, recession risk and economic policy. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in October? | No change 81.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.21M | Oct 29, 2026 |
| How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? | 5.4% 59% | -5.5 pts | $58.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 18.5% | — | $45.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 74.5% | +3.0 pts | $42.4K | Dec 10, 2026 |
| ECB Interest Rates: October 2026 | No change 92.5% | — | $21.6K | Oct 30, 2026 |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? | 0 (0 bps) 95.8% | -0.1 pts | $19.4K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Largest Company end of October 2026? | NVIDIA 95.7% | -0.2 pts | $17.8K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Fed Decision in January? | No change 59% | -5.5 pts | $17.5K | Jan 28, 2027 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes 75.5% | -1.0 pts | $16.5K | Dec 10, 2026 |
| How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027? | 5.70% 86% | +17.5 pts | $10.0K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Largest Company end of December 2026? | NVIDIA 85.5% | +1.0 pts | $8.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US recession by end of 2026? | Yes 7.5% | — | $6.3K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM) | 0.0 to 0.1% 50% | +35.5 pts | $5.6K | Oct 30, 2026 |
| Fed rate cut? | By July 2027 Meeting 50.5% | -2.5 pts | $5.0K | Jan 29, 2028 |
| Which companies will the US take a stake in? | Unusual Machines 45.5% | -1.0 pts | $4.8K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Core PCE YoY - September 2026 | 3.0% 32% | +9.0 pts | $4.6K | Oct 29, 2026 |
| What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31? | $503K - $507K 24.5% | +2.0 pts | $4.3K | Jan 11, 2027 |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October? | 25 bps increase 62% | -5.5 pts | $4.3K | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) | Pause-Hike-Pause 46.5% | -4.0 pts | $4.3K | Jan 27, 2027 |
| Bank of Brazil decision in December? | 25 bps decrease 47% | +8.5 pts | $4.2K | Dec 9, 2026 |
| Bank of England decision in November? | 25 bps increase 83.5% | -1.0 pts | $4.1K | Nov 5, 2026 |
| What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? | 4.25% 67.3% | +19.4 pts | $3.6K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| September Inflation UK - Annual | 3.1-3.3% 36% | +1.5 pts | $3.6K | Oct 21, 2026 |
| What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31? | $870K+ 19.5% | +3.0 pts | $3.5K | Jan 11, 2027 |
| How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027? | 5.10% 81% | -0.5 pts | $3.2K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026? | 30M+ 96.4% | -0.1 pts | $3.0K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| September Inflation US - Annual | 3.6% 47.5% | +1.0 pts | $3.0K | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Swiss National Bank decision in December? | No Change 78% | +3.5 pts | $2.7K | Dec 10, 2026 |
| Central Bank of Colombia decision in October | No change 46.5% | +12.0 pts | $2.6K | Oct 30, 2026 |
| JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026 | <6.8M 22.5% | -0.5 pts | $2.3K | Nov 3, 2026 |
| How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October? | Below 5.18% 53% | +2.0 pts | $2.3K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? | ↑ 4.25% 76.8% | +4.3 pts | $2.2K | Dec 31, 2026 |
| What will the median home value in the US be on December 31? | $407K - $411K 24.5% | -1.0 pts | $2.2K | Jan 11, 2027 |
| EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026? | 30M+ 81.5% | — | $2.2K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| 3rd Largest Company end of October? | Alphabet 88% | +2.5 pts | $2.2K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November | No change 85% | -5.0 pts | $2.1K | Nov 4, 2026 |
| EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026? | 30M+ 86.5% | +7.5 pts | $2.0K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| 2026 World GDP Growth | ≤2.9% 28.3% | +5.7 pts | $1.9K | May 1, 2027 |
| Which banks will fail by end of 2026? | Goldman Sachs 8.0% | -4.9 pts | $1.8K | May 1, 2027 |
| US GDP growth in Q3 2026? | ≥3.0% 72.5% | +6.0 pts | $1.7K | Oct 30, 2026 |
100 smaller markets are not shown; all 140 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Fed & Interest Rates (49) · Inflation & CPI (32) · Stocks & Earnings (112) · Oil & Commodities (57) · IPOs (89)
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 140 live US Economy markets with $1.62M traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Fed Decision in October? (No change 81.5%), followed by How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? (5.4% 59%), Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? (Yes 18.5%).
140 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Paste this on your site or newsletter — it shows the five most-traded US Economy markets and updates twice a day.
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/topic/economy/" width="100%" height="280" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="US Economy odds on Polymarket"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/economy/">US Economy odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/topics/economy.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.
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Polymarket View, “US Economy odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/economy/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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