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Big Tech Odds on Polymarket

Updated October 6, 2026 · 177 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 177 live Big Tech markets with $287.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Largest Company end of October 2026? (NVIDIA 95.9%), followed by Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap ($2.0–$2.25T 31.1%), Will Apple release a foldable iPhone? (By December 31 99.6%).

Google, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon: launches, market caps and company events. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

Live Big Tech markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Largest Company end of October 2026?NVIDIA 95.9%+0.5 pts$25.6KNov 1, 2026
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap$2.0–$2.25T 31.1%+1.1 pts$25.4KJan 1, 2028
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone?By December 31 99.6%+0.1 pts$12.7KJan 1, 2027
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?<$1T 22.1%-0.4 pts$10.8KJan 1, 2028
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?↑$1.25T 84.5%+2.5 pts$10.4KJan 5, 2027
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?$1.75–$2.00T 44.5%+12.0 pts$9.6KJan 1, 2028
GPU rental prices (H200) end of November?$5.00-$5.50 22%+3.5 pts$9.3KDec 1, 2026
In which month will Anthropic IPO?November 2026 65.5%+4.6 pts$7.7KJan 1, 2028
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap1.5T+ 55.6%-0.1 pts$7.6KJan 1, 2028
GPU rental prices (A100) end of November?$0.75-$1.00 55%+22.0 pts$7.4KDec 1, 2026
Largest Company end of December 2026?NVIDIA 85%+0.5 pts$7.0KJan 1, 2027
What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit in October 2026?↑ $760 81%+12.0 pts$7.0KNov 1, 2026
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?↑$1.5T 93.5%+0.5 pts$6.0KJan 5, 2027
GPU rental prices (B200) end of November?<$7.00 22%+8.5 pts$5.2KDec 1, 2026
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)600B+ 94%—$4.5KJan 1, 2028
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?1480+ 37.8%+10.5 pts$4.5KJan 1, 2027
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced?By December 31, 2027 59.5%-3.0 pts$4.4KJan 1, 2028
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?Anthropic 91.5%-1.0 pts$4.4KJan 5, 2027
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?Anthropic 50.7%+4.3 pts$4.3KJan 2, 2027
What will the next Muse model family be named?Muse Fire 17.5%+2.0 pts$4.0KDec 31, 2026
Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?55%+ 36.5%+3.5 pts$3.8KJan 1, 2027
3rd Largest Company end of October?Alphabet 86%+5.5 pts$3.5KNov 1, 2026
3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?Alphabet 66.5%-3.0 pts$3.4KJan 1, 2027
#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 5?Google 46.5%—$3.3KOct 13, 2026
IPOs before 2027?Anthropic 83.5%—$3.3KJan 1, 2027
Meta's "Watermelon" model released?By November 30 90.5%—$3.3KNov 30, 2026
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)1.8T+ 79%-6.5 pts$3.2KJan 1, 2028
Next Gemini Pro Model released?No release by October 31 77.5%-4.0 pts$3.1KOct 31, 2026
#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 5?DeepSeek 48%—$2.9KOct 13, 2026
Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?Morgan Stanley 88%+0.5 pts$2.9KJan 1, 2028
3rd richest person on December 31?Warren Buffett 37.6%-1.2 pts$2.8KJan 3, 2027
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Yes 62.5%-5.0 pts$2.8KJan 1, 2027
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released?By December 31 37%—$2.5KNov 1, 2026
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?Earbuds/Headphones 21.5%+6.5 pts$2.3KJan 1, 2027
Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2026Lindsay Clancy 70.5%-2.0 pts$2.2KDec 31, 2026
Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?45%+ 93.5%-1.5 pts$2.2KJul 1, 2027
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?November 30, 2026 84.5%-5.5 pts$2.2KJul 1, 2027
What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit Week of October 5 2026?↑ $750 77.5%+28.0 pts$2.2KOct 9, 2026
#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?Lindsay Clancy 19.5%-1.0 pts$2.1KApr 1, 2027
GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?$6.50+ 65.5%-16.5 pts$2.0KNov 1, 2026

137 smaller markets are not shown; all 177 are in the JSON data.

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

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How these markets work: Earnings markets · Stock price markets.

People in these markets

Google Gemini · LeBron James · Elon Musk · Donald Trump · JD Vance · Benjamin Netanyahu · Nicolás Maduro · Vladimir Putin · Kanye West · Volodymyr Zelenskyy · Bad Bunny · Taylor Swift · Sabrina Carpenter · Erling Haaland · Chappell Roan

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Big Tech odds on Polymarket today?

As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 177 live Big Tech markets with $287.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Largest Company end of October 2026? (NVIDIA 95.9%), followed by Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap ($2.0–$2.25T 31.1%), Will Apple release a foldable iPhone? (By December 31 99.6%).

How many Big Tech markets are open on Polymarket?

177 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

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Polymarket View, “Big Tech odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/big-tech/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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