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Updated October 6, 2026 · 221 questions
Short answers to 221 questions people ask about Polymarket, from whether it is legal where you live to fees, payouts, disputes, how accurate its odds are and how it compares with Kalshi. Each answer comes from the page on this site that covers the topic in full, with its sources and dates, and is updated with that page.
Is Polymarket legal? Access and the US (9) · Fees, payouts and resolution (27) · Odds and accuracy (25) · How the different markets work (47) · Polymarket compared (51) · Data, citing and tools (62)
polymarket.com does not let US users open new positions. Polymarket US, the CFTC-regulated app, is reported available in 44 of the 50 states and D.C., not available in 1 and unclear in 6 (as of September 25, 2026). Several states are suing prediction-market companies, so check the dated timeline on each state's page. Not legal advice. More: Is Polymarket legal in your state?
Not for new trades: its help center lists the United States as blocked and its developer documentation as close-only; US residents are pointed to Polymarket US, the CFTC-regulated app. More: Is Polymarket legal in your state?
Takers pay 0.0695 x contracts x p x (1-p), at most $1.74 per 100 contracts at 50 cents; makers get a rebate of 0.0125 x contracts x p x (1-p); withdrawals are free. More: Polymarket US: is Polymarket legal in the US?
No. Polymarket says US residents must use the separate Polymarket US app and the accounts are not connected. More: Polymarket US: is Polymarket legal in the US?
By debit card or ACH (up to $50,000 a day each) or by wire from $1,000, from accounts in your own name; withdrawals return to the same source. More: Polymarket US: is Polymarket legal in the US?
Fully blocked: Iran, Syria, Cuba, North Korea, and Ukraine's Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Dozens more are close-only; see the table. More: Where is Polymarket available? Restricted countries list
polymarket.com is close-only for US users. Polymarket separately launched a US app in December 2025 after CFTC approval; access to it depends on the state. More: Where is Polymarket available? Restricted countries list
You can close positions you already hold but cannot open new ones from that location. More: Where is Polymarket available? Restricted countries list
Its website and API check where each request comes from, and its terms of service forbid using a VPN to get around restrictions. More: Where is Polymarket available? Restricted countries list
Yes, on most markets: the taker (the order that fills against a resting order) pays a fee of shares × fee rate × p × (1 − p). The rate depends on the market's category. Geopolitical and world-events markets, and some single games, have no fee. More: Polymarket Fees and Fee Calculator
Multiply the number of shares by the market's fee rate and by p × (1 − p), where p is the price. The fee is largest in dollars at 50¢ and shrinks toward 0¢ and $1. Example: 100 shares at 50¢ in a 4% market cost 100 × 0.04 × 0.25 = $1.00 in fees. Fees are rounded to 5 decimal places. More: Polymarket Fees and Fee Calculator
No. Makers are never charged; only takers pay. Polymarket also returns part of the taker fees to makers through its maker rebate program — the share for each category is in the table on this page. More: Polymarket Fees and Fee Calculator
The fee applies whenever you take liquidity, whether you buy or sell, and it is calculated the same way in both directions. More: Polymarket Fees and Fee Calculator
Polymarket's documentation says USDC deposits and withdrawals carry no Polymarket fees. A wallet, exchange or bridge you use on the way may charge its own network or service fee. More: Polymarket Fees and Fee Calculator
Through UMA's optimistic oracle: anyone proposes the result with a bond, and if nobody disputes it within two hours the market resolves. Disputes lead to a new proposal round and, if disputed again, a UMA token-holder vote. More: How Polymarket Markets Resolve
About two hours after an undisputed proposal. Disputed markets take roughly four to six days because of the extra proposal round and the roughly 48-hour UMA vote. More: How Polymarket Markets Resolve
Polymarket can publish additional context to clarify an ambiguous question, but its documentation says a clarification cannot change the question's fundamental intent. More: How Polymarket Markets Resolve
In our sample the median market was settled 3.5 h after its scheduled end; 93% within a day and 98% within a week. Disputed markets take longer: median 4 days. More: How long does Polymarket take to resolve?
3.5% of the markets settled through UMA in our sample had at least one dispute; 70 had two or more. More: How long does Polymarket take to resolve?
Yes. 20% of the markets in our sample closed more than an hour before their end date, usually “by a date” questions whose event happened earlier. More: How long does Polymarket take to resolve?
The gap between the best ask (lowest sell price) and the best bid (highest buy price). Liquid markets often trade with a 1¢ spread; thin markets can be several cents wide. More: How to Read a Polymarket Order Book
The displayed probability is the midpoint of the spread (or the last trade when the spread is wide). A market buy pays the ask — and more if your order is larger than the shares offered at the best price — plus any taker fee. More: How to Read a Polymarket Order Book
Use limit orders at the price you want, split large orders, and check the depth first: the table above shows what spending $100 to $50,000 would cost right now. More: How to Read a Polymarket Order Book
Not as a refund. The market resolves under its rules; for a canceled event that is often 50-50, which pays $0.50 per Yes or No share, so you gain or lose depending on the price you paid. More: What happens when a Polymarket market is canceled?
It is a rare resolution used when neither Yes nor No applies, for example a game canceled with no make-up date. Each Yes and each No share then redeems for $0.50. More: What happens when a Polymarket market is canceled?
Sports rules usually keep the market open until the game is completed. It resolves 50-50 only if the game is canceled with no make-up game or, in some sports, if there is no result by a stated deadline. More: What happens when a Polymarket market is canceled?
It can add clarifications, which its documentation says cannot change the fundamental intent of the question. A clarification clears the order book and cancels resting orders. More: What happens when a Polymarket market is canceled?
About two hours after an undisputed proposal and roughly four to six days if the result is disputed, according to Polymarket's documentation. More: What happens when a Polymarket market is canceled?
It is the catch-all outcome in a multi-outcome market. It resolves Yes if the winner is not one of the named outcomes, or in any case the rules assign to it, such as no result by a deadline. More: What does “Other” mean on Polymarket?
In markets that add names over time, what “Other” covers narrows each time a placeholder is named, so a share can end up covering fewer outcomes than when it was bought. Polymarket's documentation advises trading named outcomes only. More: What does “Other” mean on Polymarket?
No. A 50-50 resolution is a separate, rare result used when neither Yes nor No applies, and it pays $0.50 per share. “Other” is an outcome that pays $1 per share if it wins. More: What does “Other” mean on Polymarket?
Yes. It won TIME's 2025 Person of the Year market after TIME named the “Architects of AI”, and the 2024 next French prime minister market when Michel Barnier was appointed. More: What does “Other” mean on Polymarket?
No. Its documentation says prices come from users trading with each other on an order book, and its trading income is the fee charged on trades, whichever side wins. More: How does Polymarket make money?
It does not say. Polymarket is private and publishes no audited results; the figures reported in 2026 are revenue run rates of more than $1 billion a year, with no profit numbers. More: How does Polymarket make money?
Disclosed investors include Intercontinental Exchange, Founders Fund, General Catalyst, Polychain Capital, D.E. Shaw, G Squared and 1789 Capital. ICE's $1.6 billion is the largest disclosed investment. More: How does Polymarket make money?
Polymarket says it charges no fee to deposit or withdraw USDC on Polymarket.com, though intermediaries may charge their own. Polymarket US says withdrawals are free. More: How does Polymarket make money?
Across 1,912 resolved Polymarket markets from 225 of the highest-volume events that closed between 2025-10-02 and 2026-09-21, prices a week before close lined up with what happened: in 9 of 10 price bands the gap between the average price and the share of outcomes that happened is within normal sampling noise (the exception: the 0–10% band, where outcomes happened more often than priced, 4.0% against 1.7%). Outcomes priced at 50% or more a week out happened 75% of the time (246 favourites). The overall Brier score is 0.090, but that is flattered by long shots that were clearly going to lose; on the 614 genuinely uncertain markets (priced 10–90%) it is 0.202, against 0.250 for always saying 50%. More: How accurate is Polymarket?
On the 1,350 markets with a price at all three points, accuracy improves steadily as the close approaches: the Brier score is 0.087 a month before close, 0.064 a week before and 0.047 a day before (lower is better), and favorites won 65%, 82% and 83% of the time. More: How accurate is Polymarket?
Among categories with at least 20 genuinely uncertain markets, Politics & Elections markets were the most accurate a week before close (Brier 0.183 on 165 markets priced 10–90%) and Crypto markets the least (0.248 on 58). Some categories have only a few dozen uncertain markets, so read differences of a few hundredths as noise. More: How accurate is Polymarket?
Within this sample, more trading made no clear difference: on genuinely uncertain markets (priced 10–90% a week out) the quarter with the least volume ($28.1K to $1.04M) scored 0.197 and the quarter with the most ($6.86M and up) scored 0.208. Every market here already traded at least $10,000, so this says nothing about thinly traded markets. More: How accurate is Polymarket?
A calibrated market's 70% outcomes happen about 70% of the time. The table groups outcomes by their price a week before close and shows how often each group actually resolved Yes. More: How accurate is Polymarket?
We took the highest-volume Polymarket events that closed in the last 12 months, up to 15 of the most-traded outcome markets per event (at least $10,000 traded), read each market's price 7 days before it closed from Polymarket's public price history, and compared it with the final resolution. Markets that resolved 50-50 or had no price history at that time are excluded. More: How accurate is Polymarket?
Not the classic kind. In our sample of 1,912 resolved Polymarket markets, outcomes priced under 10% a week before the close happened 4.0% of the time against an average price of 1.7%, about 2.3 times more often than priced, while outcomes priced 60% or more were priced about right (81% happened at an average price of 81%). The long-shot wins cluster in a few events (49 wins from 37 events), so read it as a pattern in this sample, not a law. More: Is there a favorite-longshot bias on Polymarket?
No trading conclusion follows from this sample: the wins cluster in a few events, the prices are a week before the close, and fees and spreads are not included. More: Is there a favorite-longshot bias on Polymarket?
Outcomes priced under 10% a week before the close happened 4.0% of the time in our sample (49 of 1,236). More: Is there a favorite-longshot bias on Polymarket?
Yes. A 90% price means the outcome should fail about one time in ten. In our sample of 1,912 resolved Polymarket markets that closed between October 2, 2025 and September 21, 2026, outcomes priced 90% or more a week before the close happened 95% of the time: 3 of 62 lost. Long shots priced 20% or less came through 83 times out of 1,408 (5.9%, against an average price of 3.2%). More: Can a 90% favorite lose?
Outcomes priced at 50% or more a week before the close happened 75% of the time in our sample of 1,912 resolved markets. More: Can a 90% favorite lose?
Yes: 83 of 1,408 outcomes priced 20% or less a week out happened in our sample. More: Can a 90% favorite lose?
Usually because of news, a poll or data release, or a large order hitting a thin order book. If the spread is wider than 10 cents, the displayed price is the last trade, so a single trade can look like a big move. More: What moves Polymarket prices?
In thin markets, yes. Deep markets take much more money: one study estimated that moving Polymarket's Trump price by five points in October 2024 cost about $9.1 million. More: What moves Polymarket prices?
Not all of it. Columbia University researchers estimated that wash trading averaged about 25% of Polymarket's volume over three years, so treat volume as a rough guide to activity. More: What moves Polymarket prices?
Each day that passes without the event leaves less time for it to happen, so the Yes price tends to drift down unless news raises the odds. More: What moves Polymarket prices?
The biggest Polymarket market of all time is World Cup Winner with $4.33B traded, ahead of Presidential Election Winner 2024 ($3.69B) and NBA Champion ($1.71B). The 100 biggest markets together traded $34.30B; the biggest one still open is Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 ($1.29B). More: Biggest Polymarket markets of all time
As the total amount traded over the market's life across all its outcomes, from Polymarket's public data. More: Biggest Polymarket markets of all time
Twice a day with the rest of the odds pages. More: Biggest Polymarket markets of all time
Turn the odds into an implied probability — favorites: odds ÷ (odds + 100); underdogs: 100 ÷ (odds + 100) — and read it in cents. −150 is 60%, so the same outcome would trade near 60¢ on Polymarket before fees and the sportsbook margin. More: Sportsbook Odds to Polymarket Price Converter
The vig (or margin) is the bookmaker's built-in edge: both sides of a line add up to more than 100%. Removing it gives the fair probability, which is what to compare with a Polymarket price. More: Sportsbook Odds to Polymarket Price Converter
Often closer to fair, because Polymarket charges a small taker fee instead of a margin on both sides — but it varies by market and liquidity. Compare the no-margin probability here with the Polymarket price. More: Sportsbook Odds to Polymarket Price Converter
A Kelly criterion calculator estimates the bankroll fraction to risk when you know your probability estimate and the market odds. It is a sizing tool, not a signal generator: bad probability estimates still create bad bets. More: Kelly Criterion Calculator for Polymarket
Convert the Polymarket YES price to decimal odds, compare the market probability with your researched probability, enter the edge, and use the fractional Kelly output as a conservative position-size ceiling. More: Kelly Criterion Calculator for Polymarket
Usually no. Full Kelly assumes your probability estimate is correct, which is rarely true in live prediction markets. Half Kelly or quarter Kelly reduces volatility and gives room for fees, spread, slippage, and model error. More: Kelly Criterion Calculator for Polymarket
The one named in each market's rules. The current markets on Donald Trump's approval use Silver Bulletin's approval rating; the source decides the result, so check it on the market you trade. More: How Polymarket Approval Rating Markets Work: Daily Brackets, Yearly Highs and Lows
Each level is its own market. It resolves Yes if the rating from the named source is at or below that level on any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026, and No otherwise. More: How Polymarket Approval Rating Markets Work: Daily Brackets, Yearly Highs and Lows
On the official announcement by the awarding body, as the rules specify, including how shared or unlisted winners are handled. More: How Polymarket Awards Markets Work (Oscars, Nobel, Ballon d'Or, VMAs)
Prices are probabilities, not certainties: a 60% favourite still loses about four times in ten. More: How Polymarket Awards Markets Work (Oscars, Nobel, Ballon d'Or, VMAs)
The one named in each market's rules — typically a box office tracking site's reported figure for the stated period. More: How Polymarket Box Office Markets Work (Opening Weekend and Total Gross)
Preview and first-day numbers arrive, and they are strong predictors of the weekend total. More: How Polymarket Box Office Markets Work (Opening Weekend and Total Gross)
It is a set of yes/no markets, one per price level. Each pays $1 if Bitcoin's price at the time and source named in the rules is above that level. More: How Polymarket Crypto Price Markets Work: “Above X on Date” and “What Price Will It Hit”
It resolves Yes for every level the price reaches at any time during the period, whether or not it stays there. More: How Polymarket Crypto Price Markets Work: “Above X on Date” and “What Price Will It Hit”
Each deadline is a separate yes/no market that resolves Yes if the event, as defined in the rules, happens on or before that date; otherwise it resolves No when the date passes. More: How Polymarket “By Date” Deadline Markets Work (Will X Happen By …?)
Because it includes every earlier date: if the event happens by September 30, it has also happened by December 31. More: How Polymarket “By Date” Deadline Markets Work (Will X Happen By …?)
That the company reports earnings per share above the consensus estimate named in the market's rules, using the EPS measure and source the rules specify. More: How Polymarket Earnings Markets Work (“Will X Beat Quarterly Earnings?”)
Soon after the company publishes its quarterly results, based on the figure in its official earnings documents or the fallback source named in the rules. More: How Polymarket Earnings Markets Work (“Will X Beat Quarterly Earnings?”)
The one named in the rules — usually the first official release of the stated series — not later revisions. More: How Polymarket Economic Data Markets Work (CPI, Jobs Report, GDP)
Most US data are published at 8:30 a.m. ET; once the number is out, the matching range goes to nearly $1. More: How Polymarket Economic Data Markets Work (CPI, Jobs Report, GDP)
On the result as defined in the rules — typically the certified winner or the call by named sources — with specific handling for recounts and disputes. More: How Polymarket Election Markets Work (Winner, Party Control and Margins)
No. They are prices set by traders risking money; they often move with polls but also react to other news. More: How Polymarket Election Markets Work (Winner, Party Control and Margins)
On the change to the federal funds target range announced at the named meeting, measured as the rules specify (for example by the upper bound), into the listed buckets such as 25 bp cut, no change or 25 bp hike. More: How Polymarket Fed Decision Markets Work (Rate Cut, Hike or Hold)
They measure the same question from different sources — traders' prices on Polymarket versus fed funds futures — and usually track each other closely, with occasional gaps. More: How Polymarket Fed Decision Markets Work (Rate Cut, Hike or Hold)
Only if the price is wrong by more than the cost of waiting. Divide the payout by the price and spread the gain over the time to resolution; the APY calculator does it with fees and holding rewards. More: How Polymarket Long-Dated Markets Work: Questions a Year or More Away and the Cost of Waiting
Yes. Shares trade until the market closes, so you can sell at the current bid at any time; the price then reflects the latest news, not the final result. More: How Polymarket Long-Dated Markets Work: Questions a Year or More Away and the Cost of Waiting
Each listed word resolves Yes if the named speaker says it during the event and in the form defined by the rules, as checked against the source the rules name. More: How Polymarket Mention Markets Work (What Will X Say?)
Only as the rules allow — some count plurals and possessives, others require the exact word. More: How Polymarket Mention Markets Work (What Will X Say?)
Because exactly one of them will resolve Yes; each outcome's price is its probability, so the probabilities together cover every possible result (spreads make the sum drift slightly above 100%). More: How Polymarket Multi-Outcome Markets Work (Who Will Win, Which Range)
Yes — buy its “No” share, which pays $1 if any other outcome wins. More: How Polymarket Multi-Outcome Markets Work (Who Will Win, Which Range)
Polymarket lists ready-made markets that combine several conditions, tagged as parlays, such as a market that needs one party to win both chambers of Congress. You buy Yes or No on the whole bundle like any other market. More: How Polymarket Parlay-Style Markets Work: One Market, Several Conditions
Multiply the chances of the separate conditions if they are independent; if they tend to happen together, the combined chance is higher than that product. The combined probability calculator does the arithmetic. More: How Polymarket Parlay-Style Markets Work: One Market, Several Conditions
The number named in the rules is read from the source and at the time the rules give. The one bracket that contains it resolves Yes and pays $1 a share; every other bracket resolves No. More: How Polymarket Price Range Markets Work: Brackets for Prices, Counts and Box Office
Exactly one bracket wins, so the chances across all brackets should total 100%. Small differences come from the bid-ask spreads; a total well above or below 100% is worth a look at the order books. More: How Polymarket Price Range Markets Work: Brackets for Prices, Counts and Box Office
You trade shares against other users instead of betting against a bookmaker, so the price is set by the market and there is no built-in margin on both sides — only the spread and a small taker fee on some markets. More: How Polymarket Sports Game Markets Work (Moneyline, Spread and Totals)
Yes if any one-minute candle during regular trading hours in the stated week or month reaches the listed price (the high for upward levels, the low for downward ones), according to the price source in the rules; otherwise No. More: How Polymarket Stock Price Markets Work (“What Will SPY Hit This Week?”)
No. The rules count only prices from the regular trading session of the stock's primary exchange. More: How Polymarket Stock Price Markets Work (“What Will SPY Hit This Week?”)
To the temperature range that contains the highest (or lowest) temperature recorded on that date by the station named in the rules, in the unit the rules give. More: How Polymarket Weather Temperature Markets Work (Highest Temperature Today)
From the source named in each market's rules — for example a national weather service's airport station. More: How Polymarket Weather Temperature Markets Work (Highest Temperature Today)
To the range containing the number of qualifying posts made by the account between the start and end times in the rules; the rules also say what counts as a post and how it is tallied. More: How Polymarket Tweet Count Markets Work (Elon Musk # of Posts)
Each outcome is a count range; together they cover every possible total, and exactly one resolves Yes. More: How Polymarket Tweet Count Markets Work (Elon Musk # of Posts)
By comparing two prices from the data source named in the rules — typically the close of a set candle with its open, or with the previous day's close. Up pays $1 if the price finished higher (the rules say how a tie is treated). More: How Polymarket Up or Down Markets Work (15-Minute, Hourly and Daily)
From a few minutes to a day; each window is its own market, and new ones open continuously. More: How Polymarket Up or Down Markets Work (15-Minute, Hourly and Daily)
Winning shares can be redeemed for $1 each; losing shares are worth nothing. More: How Polymarket Yes/No Markets Work: Prices, Payouts and Resolution
Economically yes: Yes and No together always pay exactly $1, so buying No at 85¢ has the same payoff as selling Yes at 15¢. More: How Polymarket Yes/No Markets Work: Prices, Payouts and Resolution
It depends on what you compare. Markets beat single polls in long-run studies of the Iowa Electronic Markets, but properly adjusted poll-based forecasts did better in other research, and both have missed. More: Polymarket vs polls: what is the difference?
A market prices the chance of winning, not vote share, so a tied polling average can still come with a market favorite. Polymarket had Trump at 56.3% at midday on November 4, 2024, and he won all seven swing states. More: Polymarket vs polls: what is the difference?
Yes. After the final Selzer Iowa poll on November 2, 2024 showed Harris ahead in Iowa, Polymarket's price for a Democratic win there rose from 8.5 cents to 18 cents within minutes; the market later resolved No. More: Polymarket vs polls: what is the difference?
It is the range expected from sampling alone. Pew notes that the margin on the gap between two candidates is roughly twice the margin on each candidate's share, and other errors, such as who turns out to vote, come on top. More: Polymarket vs polls: what is the difference?
There is no settled answer for Polymarket. A Federal Reserve Board staff paper found that the most likely outcome on Kalshi had zero average error by the day of FOMC meetings, an improvement over fed funds futures, but it did not study Polymarket. More: Polymarket vs CME FedWatch: how the Fed odds differ
FedWatch converts monthly-average futures prices into odds under a 25-basis-point assumption, while Polymarket traders price each outcome directly and settle on the upper bound of the target range. Timing, fees and who is trading also matter. More: Polymarket vs CME FedWatch: how the Fed odds differ
The change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range announced in the FOMC statement for that meeting, with unlisted changes rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. More: Polymarket vs CME FedWatch: how the Fed odds differ
Subtract the price from 100 to get the expected average rate for the month, work out the rate after the meeting from the days before and after it, and divide the implied change by 25 basis points. Our calculator does this. More: Polymarket vs CME FedWatch: how the Fed odds differ
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC and trades in US dollars. Polymarket's main exchange, polymarket.com, is international, settles in pUSD (a token backed 1:1 by USDC since April 28, 2026) and is close-only for US users; Polymarket also launched a separate CFTC-approved US app in December 2025. More: Polymarket vs Kalshi odds today
They have different traders, fees, order books and sometimes different resolution rules. A few points of difference is common; larger gaps usually close as traders move money, but fees, spreads and access rules mean a gap is not free money. More: Polymarket vs Kalshi odds today
For 100 shares bought as a taker at 50¢, Polymarket's 4% politics rate costs $1.00 and Kalshi's general fee $1.75; at 90¢ it is $0.36 versus $0.63. Makers pay nothing on Polymarket; on Kalshi, makers pay a smaller fee on some markets. More: Polymarket vs Kalshi odds today
It depends on what you trade. Kalshi and Crypto.com list sports, politics and economics on CFTC-regulated exchanges; ForecastEx suits Interactive Brokers clients aged 21+ and pays an interest-like coupon; PredictIt suits small political positions up to $3,500 per contract; Robinhood and DraftKings route to regulated exchanges from their own apps. US residents can also use Polymarket's own CFTC-regulated app, Polymarket US. More: Polymarket alternatives
Manifold uses play money called mana, which cannot be cashed out; every new user starts with M1,000. Metaculus has no trading at all: forecasters submit probabilities, and many of its tournaments pay cash prizes. More: Polymarket alternatives
Polymarket.com works in countries that are not on its blocked list; Betfair Exchange holds licences in the UK, Malta, Italy, Romania and Brazil but bars US customers; Interactive Brokers offers ForecastEx to eligible clients in Canada, Hong Kong, Ireland and Singapore; Kalshi is open in many countries, but its member agreement bars trading from 55 listed jurisdictions, including the UK, Canada, Australia, France, Italy and India; the crypto markets Limitless (on Base) and Myriad (on BNB Chain) bar US users and some other places. More: Polymarket alternatives
Robinhood routes event contracts to several CFTC-licensed exchanges, including KalshiEX, ForecastEX and Rothera; its prediction markets hub launched on March 17, 2025 with contracts from Kalshi. More: Polymarket vs Robinhood
Robinhood's commission is k x p x (1-p) per contract (k = 10%, or 5% with Gold), capped at $0.01 per contract, plus an exchange fee of up to $0.01 per contract per side. Polymarket US charges takers 0.0695 x contracts x p x (1-p), at most $1.74 per 100 contracts at 50 cents, and pays makers a rebate. More: Polymarket vs Robinhood
No. Robinhood says Maryland residents can't trade sports event contracts, Nevada residents can't open new ones since December 1, 2025, and other state restrictions may apply. More: Polymarket vs Robinhood
They serve different needs. PredictIt is open to US persons 18 and older, focuses on political and economic questions and caps each contract at $3,500. US residents cannot use Polymarket.com; they use the Polymarket US app, a CFTC-regulated exchange with sports, politics, crypto and more and no trading size limits. More: Polymarket vs PredictIt
PredictIt takes 10% of the profit on shares sold above cost or redeemed at $1, and 3% on card deposits. Polymarket US charges takers 0.0695 x contracts x p x (1-p), at most $1.74 per 100 contracts at 50 cents, and pays makers a rebate; Polymarket.com charges takers shares x rate x p x (1-p) with a rate from 0 to 0.07 by category. More: Polymarket vs PredictIt
No. PredictIt says it is not regulated by the CFTC and relies on a no-action letter; Polymarket US is a CFTC designated contract market and clearing organization. The international Polymarket.com is not CFTC-regulated either. More: Polymarket vs PredictIt
PredictIt issues IRS Form 1099 to US-resident traders with net profit of $600 or more in a calendar year. More: Polymarket vs PredictIt
No. Betfair's terms list the United States among prohibited territories, along with countries such as Canada, France and Germany. More: Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange
Betfair charges commission on net winnings only, 5% to 7% by country, and an Expert Fee of 20% or 40% for its most profitable customers. Polymarket.com charges takers shares x rate x p x (1-p) on each trade, with a rate from 0 to 0.07 by category. More: Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange
Its exchange already lists politics and other special markets, and Covers reported in April 2026 that Betfair was beta-testing 'Betfair Predicts', a Yes/No interface for sports, politics and entertainment, with select UK users. More: Polymarket vs Betfair Exchange
No, by its own description. Prediction markets use real or virtual currency to buy and sell shares, while Metaculus asks forecasters for probabilities and combines them; on yes/no questions the Community Prediction is a weighted median of recent forecasts. More: Polymarket vs Metaculus
Yes, in tournaments with a prize pool: cash prizes go to the most accurate forecasters, and each forecaster's share is proportional to their summed Peer scores squared. The tournaments page listed prize pools from $3,000 to $50,000 in July 2026; some tournaments, and all Question Series, have none. More: Polymarket vs Metaculus
On Metaculus only administrators resolve questions, and a resolution found to be wrong can be re-resolved. Polymarket.com uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose an outcome by posting a bond, typically $750 in pUSD, there is a 2-hour challenge period, and a second dispute goes to a vote of UMA token holders. On Polymarket US the exchange resolves markets from the sources listed in each market's rules. More: Polymarket vs Metaculus
The figures each site publishes cover different questions, so they are not a head-to-head test. Metaculus reports a Brier score of 0.108 for its Community Prediction on questions that resolved in 2021 (lower is better). Polymarket's accuracy page showed on September 25, 2026 that the leading outcome one month before resolution was right 90.2% of the time. More: Polymarket vs Metaculus
Metaculus suits practicing forecasting without trading, building a scored track record and reading community forecasts on questions over many timescales, with a focus on science, technology, AI, health and geopolitics. Polymarket suits trading real-money positions on politics, sports, crypto, economics and more; US residents use the separate Polymarket US app. More: Polymarket vs Metaculus
Not as a trading app: augur.net says no Augur-native prediction-market application has relaunched and the site is not a trading interface. The Lituus Foundation began rebooting Augur in 2025 after years of dormancy; it says Augur Lituus, a redesigned oracle, is in development with ChainSafe, and it also funds Dark Florist, an independent team building a censorship-resistant prediction market. More: Polymarket vs Augur
Augur's first fork, its last resort for disputes. On April 8, 2026 community member Micah Zoltu began a dispute over a market on whether NASA's Artemis II mission would lift off, and REP holders then chose a universe by migrating their tokens until August 3, 2026. Of 11,000,000 REP, 6,547,546.66 migrated, almost all to the Yes universe, whose token REPv2_Yes_1 Kraken lists as AUGUR. More: Polymarket vs Augur
On Augur, REP holders decide: a market's designated reporter reports first, any REP holder can dispute by staking REP, successful disputers earn a 40% return, and a large enough dispute forks Augur. Polymarket.com uses the UMA optimistic oracle: anyone can propose an outcome with a bond, typically $750 in pUSD, there is a 2-hour challenge period, and a second dispute goes to a vote of UMA token holders. More: Polymarket vs Augur
Augur v2 charged fees only when shares were settled with the market contract: a creator fee chosen by each market's creator plus a reporting fee paid to REP holders who took part in reporting. Polymarket.com charges takers shares x rate x p x (1-p), with a rate from 0 to 0.07 by category. More: Polymarket vs Augur
Only when the two prices plus fees add up to less than $1 for the same outcome set, the rules match, and you can legally use both platforms — which is rare, because Kalshi serves US residents and polymarket.com is close-only in the US. More: Polymarket Arbitrage Calculator
Polymarket charges takers shares × rate × p × (1 − p) with a category rate; Kalshi's general taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × P × (1 − P), rounded up to the next cent. The calculator adds both to the cost. More: Polymarket Arbitrage Calculator
Anything above zero after fees is a gross profit, but compare it with the time until settlement: annualize it, and weigh the rule and access risks before trading. More: Polymarket Arbitrage Calculator
Yes. Manifold uses play money: every new user gets M1,000 mana, which cannot be cashed out. Kalshi's demo site, demo.kalshi.co, lets you practice with mock funds, and nothing you do there affects a real account. More: Best prediction markets for beginners
Kalshi's minimum deposit is $10 ($1,000 by wire), PredictIt needs a $10 balance to trade, and Polymarket.com takes crypto deposits from $2 on most networks. Polymarket US's funding guide gives a minimum only for wires, $1,000. More: Best prediction markets for beginners
Kalshi and Polymarket US charge takers a fee that is largest at a 50-cent price: $1.75 per 100 contracts on Kalshi and at most $1.74 on Polymarket US. Robinhood caps its commission at $0.01 per contract plus an exchange fee of up to $0.01, and PredictIt takes 10% of any profit instead. More: Best prediction markets for beginners
It depends on your country and, in the US, your state. Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated, but court orders keep Kalshi's sports contracts out of Nevada, Washington and Michigan, and Polymarket.com lists 39 blocked countries. Check the platform's own rules and our state and country pages; this is not legal advice. More: Best prediction markets for beginners
In the US, Polymarket US works like other regulated apps: you verify your identity and fund it in dollars by card, ACH or wire. Outside the US, Polymarket.com needs a crypto deposit, which is an extra step if you have never used a wallet or exchange. More: Best prediction markets for beginners
On the international Polymarket.com, yes: deposits from 15 networks are converted to pUSD on Polygon. Polymarket US, the app for US residents, uses US dollars only, funded by debit card, ACH or wire. More: Best prediction markets for crypto users
Kalshi accepts crypto deposits from US and international users and credits them to a dollar balance. Crypto.com converts any of 350+ tokens into its USD account, and Coinbase lets US customers buy contracts with USDC. More: Best prediction markets for crypto users
On 100 contracts bought at 50 cents, a taker pays $1.75 on Polymarket.com (the 0.07 crypto rate) and $1.75 on Kalshi, and $2.00 on Crypto.com's flat $0.02 per contract. The first two fall toward zero as the price nears 0 or $1; Crypto.com's does not. More: Best prediction markets for crypto users
Who runs it and under which law, who decides outcomes, what happens after a wrong resolution and whether your country is barred. Limitless is run from Panama and refunds a wrong resolution at cost; Myriad is run from Grand Cayman and its team resolves markets. More: Best prediction markets for crypto users
US residents can trade election contracts on CFTC-regulated exchanges such as Kalshi, Polymarket US and ForecastEx, and on PredictIt under a CFTC no-action letter. Court orders block Kalshi's election contracts in Nevada and Washington and Polymarket's in Nevada. Not legal advice. More: Best prediction markets for politics and elections
On 100 contracts bought at 50 cents, a taker pays $1.00 on Polymarket.com (the 0.04 politics rate), $1.00 in exchange fees on ForecastEx, $1.74 on Polymarket US and $1.75 at Kalshi's general rate. PredictIt instead takes 10% of profit: $5.00 if those 100 shares win. Geopolitics markets on Polymarket.com have no fee. More: Best prediction markets for politics and elections
PredictIt limits each trader to $3,500 per contract. Polymarket US sets no trading size limits, and ForecastEx's rulebook sets a position accountability level of 250,000 contracts per market. More: Best prediction markets for politics and elections
Polymarket.com uses the UMA oracle: a 2-hour challenge window and, after a second dispute, a token-holder vote. Polymarket US resolves from the sources in each market's rules, and its resolutions are final. Kalshi waits for official source data, and PredictIt judges markets against their posted rules. More: Best prediction markets for politics and elections
Polymarket.com, which lists politics and geopolitics markets, is open in countries that are not on its blocked list. ForecastEx's US election contracts are for eligible US residents only. Betfair Exchange runs political markets for customers in the countries it serves; check each market's rules. More: Best prediction markets for politics and elections
Court orders keep Kalshi's sports contracts out of Nevada, Washington and Michigan and Polymarket's out of Nevada, and Novig is not offered in Arizona, Nevada or Michigan. Rules are changing quickly; our state pages track each state with dated sources. Not legal advice. More: Best prediction markets for sports fans
On an exchange such as Novig you buy and sell contracts with other traders at prices between $0 and $1, and you can sell before the game ends, instead of accepting fixed odds from a bookmaker. Novig also says its contracts are regulated federally by the CFTC rather than licensed state by state like sports betting. More: Best prediction markets for sports fans
It depends on how you trade. On 100 contracts at 50 cents, Novig charges nothing on a pre-game straight trade and $0.75 live; Polymarket US charges takers $1.74 and pays makers a rebate; Kalshi and Crypto.com charge takers $1.75; Robinhood charges up to $2.00 including the exchange fee. More: Best prediction markets for sports fans
Yes, as combos. Kalshi prices combos by request for quote, Polymarket US lets you join 2 to 10 markets and charges takers $1.86 per 100 contracts at 50 cents, and Novig builds a 0.10 fee into its parlay prices. More: Best prediction markets for sports fans
18 on Kalshi, Polymarket US, Robinhood and Betfair, and 21 on Novig. More: Best prediction markets for sports fans
Polymarket.com lists the UK as blocked and Kalshi lists it as a restricted jurisdiction. Betfair Exchange holds a UK Gambling Commission license, and Manifold's play money is open to UK users. Interactive Brokers does not list its UK firm among those offering event contracts. More: Best prediction markets outside the US
Polymarket.com blocks Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec; Kalshi lists Canada as restricted; and betfair.com lists Canada as a prohibited territory. Clients of Interactive Brokers Canada aged 21 or older can trade event contracts. More: Best prediction markets outside the US
Both list Australia among the places they restrict. Betfair serves Australian residents through Betfair Pty Limited, licensed by the Northern Territory Racing and Wagering Commission. More: Best prediction markets outside the US
Polymarket, Betfair and Myriad all forbid using a VPN to get around their location rules. Betfair's terms say it can void bets, withhold winnings and close accounts when that happens. More: Best prediction markets outside the US
The research datasets above are free CSV and JSON files: resolved markets with their prices 30, 7 and 1 days before the close, resolution times and disputes, crypto price strikes, Polymarket vs Kalshi gaps and upsets. More: Free Polymarket data: datasets and API
The files and the JSON API on this site are free under CC BY 4.0: credit Polymarket View with a link. Polymarket's own website and API have their own terms. More: Free Polymarket data: datasets and API
Live odds endpoints twice a day; the research samples weekly. Each file carries its own collection date. More: Free Polymarket data: datasets and API
Give the price as a percentage chance, the date (and time for breaking news), Polymarket as the venue and a link to a dated page, for example: Polymarket View, “Fed rate odds for every upcoming FOMC meeting”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/fed-rate-odds/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0). More: How to cite Polymarket odds
They are prices traders pay for an outcome, read as probabilities. They are not forecasts made by Polymarket or by this site. More: How to cite Polymarket odds
Yes. The numbers on our pages and in our JSON API are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a credit to Polymarket View and a link. More: How to cite Polymarket odds
Its rules set no date and name no TV network: it goes to the party that wins a House majority, judged on official information and a consensus of credible reporting, and may stay open until January 4, 2027, if independents' caucus plans are unclear. In 2022, AP called the House on November 16. More: 2026 midterm election night: what to watch on Polymarket
In Eastern Time, 270toWin lists 7 p.m. for Georgia, 7:30 p.m. for North Carolina and Ohio, 8 p.m. for Pennsylvania and Maine, 9 p.m. for Arizona and Iowa, and 11 p.m. for California. The first polls close at 6 p.m., the last at 1 a.m. More: 2026 midterm election night: what to watch on Polymarket
Not on Polymarket.com, where US residents cannot deposit or trade. They must use the separate Polymarket US app, a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists politics among its markets; our legality page covers each state. More: 2026 midterm election night: what to watch on Polymarket
Not on its own. A Senate race market needs the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC to call the race for the same candidate, or else waits for certification; House district markets follow a consensus of credible reporting. More: 2026 midterm election night: what to watch on Polymarket
The 2024 presidential winner market, with about $3.69 billion traded, according to Polymarket's data on September 25, 2026. The Zelenskyy suit market came next, at about $242 million. More: 10 famous Polymarket markets and how they resolved
No. Its help center says it cannot alter or reverse a resolution once UMA has finalized it, and after the Ukraine minerals market it said there would be no refunds. More: 10 famous Polymarket markets and how they resolved
Each Yes or No share redeems for $0.50, according to Polymarket's documentation, so whether you gain or lose depends on what you paid. More: 10 famous Polymarket markets and how they resolved
Polymarket's documentation puts an undisputed result at about two hours after it is proposed and a disputed one at four to six days. The Zelenskyy suit market, disputed repeatedly, resolved more than eight days after its June 30 end date. More: 10 famous Polymarket markets and how they resolved
No. It is the midpoint of the best bid and ask. Takers pay shares × fee rate × price × (1 − price) on most markets, so work out the fee before you trade. More: How to avoid common prediction market mistakes
Kelly's formula, (your probability − price) ÷ (1 − price), gives an upper limit when your estimate is right. A fraction of it leaves room for being wrong; the bankroll planner shows how different sizes play out. More: How to avoid common prediction market mistakes
Only when your chance is clearly higher than the price plus fees. In this site's sample of resolved Polymarket markets, cheap outcomes happened more often than their prices implied, but the wins clustered in a few events. More: How to avoid common prediction market mistakes
Settlement waits for the result and the resolution process. An undisputed Polymarket proposal settles about two hours after it is made; a disputed one takes four to six days. More: How to avoid common prediction market mistakes
Our data page has free CSV and JSON files of resolved markets with prices before the close, resolution times, crypto strikes, Polymarket and Kalshi gaps and the biggest markets; Polymarket's prices-history API returns timestamped prices for any outcome token. More: How to backtest prediction market strategies
Using information that was not available when the trade would have been made, such as a market's final volume, or its actual close date when it closed early. More: How to backtest prediction market strategies
Charge takers shares × rate × p × (1 − p) at the rate each market actually had; fees arrived in 2026 and apply only to markets created on or after each category's start date. More: How to backtest prediction market strategies
Not necessarily. In our example, favorites a week before the close won 74.8% of the time but returned 2.1% before costs and lost money after a 1-cent worse fill and a 0.05 fee. More: How to backtest prediction market strategies
As many as you will actually read each time you check. Start with five to ten and add one only when you drop one. More: How to build a prediction market watchlist
Start with 5 percentage points in 24 hours and adjust by market: tighter for slow-moving political questions, looser for fast sports or crypto markets. More: How to build a prediction market watchlist
Yes. A Google Sheet with conditional formatting highlights big changes whenever its data refreshes, and the biggest-movers page lists large 24-hour swings. More: How to build a prediction market watchlist
Once or twice a day matches how often this site's data is rebuilt. For minute-by-minute moves, watch the market on Polymarket itself. More: How to build a prediction market watchlist
No. The Bot API takes plain HTTPS requests and returns JSON, so the standard library is enough for a small bot; a library can add conveniences as it grows. More: How to build a Telegram odds bot
In an environment variable or a secrets manager, never in the code. Anyone with the token controls the bot, and BotFather can generate a new one if it leaks. More: How to build a Telegram odds bot
At the time of writing, our CDN rejects requests that identify as Python-urllib, the default of Python's standard library. Send your own User-Agent header, as the script does. More: How to build a Telegram odds bot
The API is rebuilt about twice a day and the bot caches it for 30 minutes, so a reply can be several hours old; each reply shows when the data was built. More: How to build a Telegram odds bot
$1 per share minus what you paid and any fee. 100 shares bought at 40 cents in a market with a 0.04 fee rate cost $40.96 and pay $100, a $59.04 profit. More: How to calculate profit on Polymarket
Your all-in cost per share, price plus fee plus any slippage, read as a probability. A trade has positive expected value only if you believe the chance is higher than that. More: How to calculate profit on Polymarket
No. You can sell at any time before resolution at the best bid or with a limit order; a market sale pays the taker fee. More: How to calculate profit on Polymarket
Close, but rarely identical. Across 216 outcomes priced on both exchanges on September 25, 2026, the median gap was 1 point and all but 3 were within 5 points. More: How to compare Polymarket and Kalshi odds
Only if Yes on one side plus No on the other costs less than $1 after fees and both contracts settle on the same facts. Access rules, transfer times and money tied up until settlement get in the way too. More: How to compare Polymarket and Kalshi odds
On this site's Polymarket vs Kalshi pages, refreshed twice a day, and on our sister site Kalshi View. More: How to compare Polymarket and Kalshi odds
On Polymarket's New page, which lists recently opened events first, or by sorting its market list by newest. Our new-markets page and its JSON file list the week's new markets, most traded first, without recurring series and single games. More: How to find new Polymarket markets
No. Polymarket lists markets itself; its help center invites suggestions that include a title, a resolution source and evidence of demand. More: How to find new Polymarket markets
Its order book may be thin, so small orders move the price, and when the spread is wider than 10 cents Polymarket shows the last trade instead of the midpoint. More: How to find new Polymarket markets
Not necessarily. The end date is when the market becomes eligible for resolution, and it can resolve earlier if the result is known. Settlement takes about two hours after an undisputed proposal, or four to six days in total if disputed. More: How to find new Polymarket markets
Google documents IMPORTDATA for CSV and TSV files. For this site's JSON endpoints, use a short Apps Script with UrlFetchApp, as shown above. More: How to get Polymarket odds in Google Sheets
Google says it checks for updates every hour while the spreadsheet is open. Re-entering the formula forces a refresh; reopening the file does not. More: How to get Polymarket odds in Google Sheets
No. The files are static and need no key or sign-up; credit Polymarket View with a link. More: How to get Polymarket odds in Google Sheets
Google limits how much traffic import functions can create across the open spreadsheets you created, so remove imports you no longer need or move large ones to a scheduled script. More: How to get Polymarket odds in Google Sheets
A Yes share costs about 10¢ and pays $1 if the event happens, so traders put the chance near 10%. The figure is the midpoint of the best bid and ask, not a price you can necessarily buy at. More: How to read Polymarket odds
You buy at the ask, which sits above the midpoint by half the spread, and takers pay a fee on most markets. In the example above, a 9.5% midpoint became a 10.45% break-even. More: How to read Polymarket odds
Each side's buy price is its own ask. With a 9¢ bid and a 10¢ ask on Yes, Yes costs 10¢ and No costs 91¢, $1.01 together; the extra cent is the spread. More: How to read Polymarket odds
No. It means traders price it at about 90%, so it should fail about one time in ten if prices are well calibrated. Our accuracy study shows how often prices at each level came true. More: How to read Polymarket odds
The narrower the better: a round trip costs the whole spread. When the spread passes 10 cents, Polymarket stops showing the midpoint and shows the last trade, a clear sign of a thin book. More: How to spot a thin Polymarket order book
The displayed price is the midpoint, but a buy fills at the ask; a large order also climbs through higher asks, and takers pay a fee in most categories. More: How to spot a thin Polymarket order book
Not necessarily. Volume measures past trading, while liquidity is what the order book offers now; check the depth near the best prices. More: How to spot a thin Polymarket order book
Check the depth first, use limit orders and split large orders. A resting limit order pays no taker fee, but it may not fill. More: How to spot a thin Polymarket order book
On the market's page on Polymarket, with ranges from one hour to all time; on our market pages as a 30-day chart; and in raw form from Polymarket's prices-history API or our free JSON files. More: How to track Polymarket price history
Yes. The CLOB endpoint /prices-history takes an outcome token ID, a time window or interval and a fidelity in minutes, and returns timestamped prices; the Data API has a newer /v2/prices-history endpoint. More: How to track Polymarket price history
Polymarket's Data API documentation says its 12-hour and 3-hour series go back to November 18, 2022, while one-minute, five-minute and 30-minute data are kept for at least 7, 60 and 90 days. More: How to track Polymarket price history
Not necessarily. Buyers pay the ask and sellers receive the bid, and a price series shows neither the spread nor the depth at that moment. More: How to track Polymarket price history
Quote them as the chance traders were paying for at a stated time, on a named exchange. They are not a forecast made by the exchange or by your newsroom. More: How to use prediction markets for news research
Check the spread, the last 24 hours of trading and the shares near the price. If the spread is wider than 10 cents, Polymarket shows the last trade rather than a midpoint, so the number may be stale. More: How to use prediction markets for news research
Cite the one you used and say when. For figures that matter, check both; this site's Polymarket vs Kalshi pages put matched events side by side. More: How to use prediction markets for news research
They can be pushed, especially in thin markets, and trading on inside information has led to charges. Treat an unexplained jump as something to report on, not as evidence on its own. More: How to use prediction markets for news research
No. It suits dashboards, research, newsletters and bots that are fine with prices a few hours old. For live quotes, use Polymarket's own APIs. More: How to use the free Polymarket odds API
Yes. CC BY 4.0 allows commercial use as long as you give credit, link to the license and indicate any changes. More: How to use the free Polymarket odds API
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