Home › Polymarket odds › Polymarket vs Kalshi
Updated October 6, 2026 · public Polymarket and Kalshi data · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026, we matched 13 events listed on both Polymarket and Kalshi. The widest gap: Which party wins the 2028 presidential election — Republicans is 34.5% on Polymarket and 41.5% on Kalshi. Across 68 matched outcomes the average gap is 1.3 percentage points. Both charge takers a fee that peaks at 50¢; makers pay nothing on Polymarket.
📊 How close are the two exchanges? Every outcome priced on both, with the average gap, the widest gaps and a free CSV.
Probabilities are the midpoint between the best bid and ask on each exchange (last trade when a side is empty). Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cut 50 bp or more | 0.1% | 1.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Cut 25 bp | 0.4% | 1.0% | -0.7 pts |
| No change | 80.5% | 79.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Hike 25 bp | 19.5% | 20.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Hike 50 bp or more | 0.4% | 1.0% | -0.7 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXFEDDECISION-26OCT.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cut 50 bp or more | 0.4% | 1.0% | -0.7 pts |
| Cut 25 bp | 1.1% | 1.5% | -0.3 pts |
| No change | 22.5% | 25.5% | -3.0 pts |
| Hike 25 bp | 74.5% | 73.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Hike 50 bp or more | 2.9% | 2.5% | +0.4 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXFEDDECISION-26DEC.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 92.5% | 91.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Republicans | 7.5% | 8.8% | -1.3 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event CONTROLH-2026.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 65.5% | 64.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Republicans | 34.5% | 35.5% | -1.0 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event CONTROLS-2026.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 64.5% | 58.5% | +6.0 pts |
| Republicans | 34.5% | 41.5% | -7.0 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXPRESPARTY-2028.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 83.7% | 82.5% | +1.2 pts |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 15.5% | 16.5% | -1.0 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXBRPRES-26.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 12.5% | 10.5% | +2.0 pts |
| Los Angeles Rams | 12.5% | 11.5% | +1.0 pts |
| San Francisco 49ers | 9.8% | 9.5% | +0.3 pts |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9.2% | 8.5% | +0.8 pts |
| Seattle Seahawks | 7.5% | 8.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Baltimore Ravens | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5.0% | 5.5% | -0.5 pts |
| Chicago Bears | 4.1% | 4.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3.8% | 3.5% | +0.2 pts |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3.6% | 3.5% | +0.1 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXSB-27.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 28.5% | 27.8% | +0.7 pts |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 24.6% | 25.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 16.3% | 15.2% | +1.1 pts |
| New York Yankees | 9.5% | 9.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Atlanta Braves | 8.9% | 9.8% | -1.0 pts |
| San Diego Padres | 2.6% | 2.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2.4% | 1.6% | +0.8 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXMLB-26.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 22.5% | 21.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 18.5% | 21.5% | -3.0 pts |
| New York Knicks | 12.5% | 8.5% | +4.0 pts |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 11.1% | 12.5% | -1.4 pts |
| Miami Heat | 3.0% | 6.5% | -3.5 pts |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 5.3% | 6.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Boston Celtics | 4.5% | 4.5% | 0 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 2.1% | 3.5% | -1.4 pts |
| Toronto Raptors | 3.2% | 2.5% | +0.8 pts |
| Denver Nuggets | 3.0% | 2.5% | +0.5 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXNBA-27.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 11.5% | 12.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Florida Panthers | 8.5% | 10.5% | -2.0 pts |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 6.5% | 7.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Minnesota Wild | 5.2% | 6.5% | -1.3 pts |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 6.5% | 5.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Montreal Canadiens | 5.5% | 4.5% | +1.1 pts |
| Dallas Stars | 5.5% | 5.0% | +0.5 pts |
| San Jose Sharks | 3.4% | 5.5% | -2.1 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXNHL-27.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 21.5% | 24.5% | -3.0 pts |
| Bayern Munich | 14.5% | 14.5% | 0 |
| Arsenal | 13.5% | 13.5% | 0 |
| Real Madrid | 9.5% | 11.5% | -2.0 pts |
| Manchester City | 8.5% | 6.5% | +2.0 pts |
| Liverpool | 4.5% | 3.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Inter Milan | 2.2% | 2.5% | -0.3 pts |
| Manchester United | 2.1% | 1.5% | +0.6 pts |
| Como | 0.9% | 2.0% | -1.1 pts |
| Atlético Madrid | 1.8% | 1.5% | +0.3 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXUCL-27.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 96.4% | 94.5% | +1.9 pts |
| OpenAI | 3.6% | 6.5% | -2.9 pts |
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXOAIANTH-40.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7.5% | 3.5% | +4.0 pts |
⚠️ The rules differ: Polymarket resolves Yes on two negative GDP quarters or an NBER recession call; Kalshi counts only two consecutive negative GDP quarters.
See our Polymarket page for this market. Kalshi event KXRECSSNBER-26.
| Polymarket (polymarket.com) | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Oversight | International exchange; a separate US app launched in December 2025 after CFTC approval (CoinDesk) | US exchange regulated by the CFTC |
| Money | pUSD, backed 1:1 by USDC (deposit USDC or other crypto) | US dollars |
| Taker fee | shares × rate × p × (1 − p); rate by category, 0–7% (live rates) | 0.07 × contracts × P × (1 − P), rounded up to the next cent (general rate) |
| Maker fee | None, plus a rebate share | A smaller fee on some markets |
| US users | Close-only on polymarket.com (Polymarket in the United States) | Open to US residents |
For eligibility, funding, custody and resolution differences in depth, read our full Polymarket vs Kalshi comparison.
Fee sources: Polymarket fees, Kalshi fee schedule. Check both before trading; schedules change.
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC and trades in US dollars. Polymarket's main exchange, polymarket.com, is international, settles in pUSD (a token backed 1:1 by USDC since April 28, 2026) and is close-only for US users; Polymarket also launched a separate CFTC-approved US app in December 2025.
They have different traders, fees, order books and sometimes different resolution rules. A few points of difference is common; larger gaps usually close as traders move money, but fees, spreads and access rules mean a gap is not free money.
For 100 shares bought as a taker at 50¢, Polymarket's 4% politics rate costs $1.00 and Kalshi's general fee $1.75; at 90¢ it is $0.36 versus $0.63. Makers pay nothing on Polymarket; on Kalshi, makers pay a smaller fee on some markets.
The comparison is free as JSON: /api/v1/compare/polymarket-kalshi.json (CC BY 4.0 — credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). More in the developer docs.
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