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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2028
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 15%, followed by By December 31, 2026 at 6.0%. The market has $600.3K in total volume and $6.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By December 31, 2027 | 15% | +1.5 pts | $3.5K |
| By December 31, 2026 | 6.0% | -0.5 pts | $596.8K |
Total volume $600.3K · 24h volume $6.4K · Liquidity $88.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By December 31, 2027 ■ By December 31, 2026 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Russia–Ukraine War odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By December 31, 2027 at 15%, followed by By December 31, 2026 at 6.0%. The market has $600.3K in total volume and $6.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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