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October 2026 prediction market calendar

Updated October 6, 2026 · refreshed twice a day · October 1–31, 2026 · dates are Polymarket's listed end dates

734 Polymarket markets end in October 2026 (single games and short recurring series left out); 106 have settled so far. The most traded: Brazil Presidential Election (Oct 4, Flávio Bolsonaro 83.9%); MLB World Series Champion 2026 (Oct 31, Los Angeles Dodgers 28.5%); Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? (Oct 27, Gadi Eizenkot 46.8%).

Key dates

By section: Economy, central banks and data releases (92) · Elections (331) · Politics and geopolitics (97) · Sports (66) · Crypto (10) · Tech and AI (75) · Culture and awards (46) · Other markets (17)

Economy, central banks and data releases

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Oct 1Will Epic Games' valuation hit __ by September 30?↑$13B 9.0% (as of 2026-09-30)$19.7K
Oct 1ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 202654.0 to 54.9 46.5% (as of 2026-10-01)$18.2K
Oct 1Will Kraken's valuation hit __ by September 30?↑$11B 42.1% (as of 2026-10-01)$18.0K
Oct 1Will Perplexity's valuation hit __ by September 30?↓$17B 34.5% (as of 2026-10-01)$16.3K
Oct 1Will Canva’s valuation hit __ by September 30?↑$41.5B 20.6% (as of 2026-10-01)$15.7K
Oct 2September Unemployment Rate✔ 4.2%$36.1K
Oct 2How many jobs added in September?✔ 0 to 50k$26.3K
Oct 5ISM Services PMI - September 202654.0 to 54.9 29% (as of 2026-10-05)$21.1K
Oct 7Reserve Bank of India decision in October25 bps increase 75%$40.3K
Oct 10What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on September 30?✔ $340K - $345K$115.6K
Oct 10What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?✔ <$419K$107.1K
Oct 10What will the median home value in Miami be on September 30?✔ $1.125M - $1.161M$100.6K
Oct 10What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?✔ <$446K$99.6K
Oct 10What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on September 30?✔ $1.153M - $1.169M$92.8K
Oct 10What will the median home value in New York City be on September 30?✔ $663K - $689K$85.8K
Oct 10What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?✔ $524K - $530K$77.1K
Oct 10What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?✔ <$1.176M$64.0K
Oct 13Argentina Monthly Inflation - September1.9 to 2.1% 55%$24.5K
Oct 14September Inflation US - Annual3.6% 47%$92.2K
Oct 14September Inflation US - Monthly0.6% 44.5%$51.8K
Oct 14Core CPI YoY - September 20262.5% 41%$39.3K
Oct 14September Inflation China - Annual0.9% to 1.0% 50.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$36.0K
Oct 14Core CPI MoM - September 20260.2% 34.5% (as of 2026-10-02)$21.0K
Oct 14Price of Dozen Eggs in September?$2.20 to $2.30 41% (as of 2026-10-04)$18.0K
Oct 20China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?4.3-4.6% 69.5%$60.2K
Oct 21Bank of Israel Decision in October?No Change 92.5%$43.0K
Oct 22Bank of Korea decision in October?No Change 86.5%$33.6K
Oct 23Bank of Russia decision in October?No Change 87%$64.2K
Oct 27South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?3.0–3.4% 46%$57.4K
Oct 27No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?No change 84.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$31.7K
Oct 28Fed Decision in October?No change 80.5%$26.74M
Oct 28Bank of Canada Decision in October?No Change 70.2%$136.3K
Oct 28Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?25 bps increase 56.5%$83.4K
Oct 29ECB Interest Rates: October 2026No change 93%$373.2K
Oct 29US GDP growth in Q3 2026?≥3.0% 66.5%$48.5K
Oct 30Bank of Japan Decision in October?No change 88.5%$187.3K
Oct 30Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 20260.8-1.1% 40%$65.2K
Oct 30Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?1.3%+ 45%$61.7K
Oct 30Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?2.5-3.0% 32.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$42.9K
Oct 30Central Bank of Colombia decision in OctoberNo change 42.5%$33.2K

52 smaller markets in this section are in the JSON file.

Elections

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Oct 3Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner✔ AS$306.9K
Oct 4Brazil Presidential ElectionFlávio Bolsonaro 83.9%$173.78M
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place✔ Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva$10.91M
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner✔ Flavio Bolsonaro$5.96M
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place✔ Augusto Cury$2.63M
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory✔ Flávio Bolsonaro <5%$1.53M
Oct 4Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?✔ Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Flavio Bolsonaro$1.51M
Oct 4Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?✔ No$1.45M
Oct 4Rio de Janeiro Governor Election WinnerDouglas Ruas 95.2%$679.5K
Oct 4Minas Gerais Governor Election Winner✔ Cleitinho Azevedo$507.3K
Oct 4Lima Mayoral Election WinnerRafael López Aliaga 94.7%$490.4K
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share?✔ 2-4%$449.8K
Oct 4Ceará Governor Election Winner✔ Elmano de Freitas$409.6K
Oct 4Bahia Governor Election Winner✔ Jerônimo Rodrigues$376.7K
Oct 4São Paulo Governor Election Winner✔ Tarcísio de Freitas$352.0K
Oct 4Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won✔ PL$318.7K
Oct 4Paraná Governor Election WinnerSergio Moro 98.8%$306.8K
Oct 4Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place✔ Bia Kicis$295.4K
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share?✔ 39%+$249.0K
Oct 4Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner✔ Luciano Zucco$207.4K
Oct 4São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place✔ Guilherme Derrite$176.6K
Oct 4Pernambuco Governor Election Winner✔ Raquel Lyra$146.6K
Oct 4Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election WinnerPL 99.9%+$143.5K
Oct 4Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner✔ Jorginho Mello$143.3K
Oct 4São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place✔ André do Prado$136.0K
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?✔ 44%+$105.0K
Oct 4Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás✔ Flavio Bolsonaro$101.0K
Oct 5Quebec General Election WinnerPQ 99.8%$1.19M
Oct 5Next Premier of QuebecPaul St-Pierre Plamondon 99.1%$401.0K
Oct 11France United Left Primary WinnerCanceled 92.3%$231.3K
Oct 17Vancouver Mayoral Election WinnerPete Fry 75.5%$236.8K
Oct 24Next Premier of British ColumbiaDavid Eby 53.5%$98.3K
Oct 25Bulgaria Presidential ElectionIliana Iotova 90%$1.02M
Oct 25Next Prime Minister of Serbia?Aleksandar Vučić 66.1%$764.4K
Oct 25Serbia Parliamentary Election WinnerAleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 63.5%$325.5K
Oct 26Toronto Mayoral Election WinnerOlivia Chow 87.5%$213.8K
Oct 27Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Gadi Eizenkot 46.8%$43.31M
Oct 27Israeli Legislative Election WinnerYashar 50.5%$603.8K
Oct 27Israel Election: Likud # of seats?20-24 35.5%$348.5K
Oct 31Republican House odds hit __ by October 31?↓ 7% 91.1%$119.1K

291 smaller markets in this section are in the JSON file.

Politics and geopolitics

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Oct 2What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alabama?✔ Iran 5+ times, Gulf of America, Football (+8 more)$31.9K
Oct 4How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?25-29 61%$52.3K
Oct 4Trump names AI "czar"?✔ October 4$50.3K
Oct 7How long will Trump and Xi shake hands?✔ 2–6s$140.3K
Oct 7Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of Xi summit?✔ No$37.5K
Oct 10Lecornu out as French PM?By December 31, 2026 31.5%$359.4K
Oct 19Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Yes 2.6%$337.2K
Oct 31US-Iran ceasefire continues?Through October 31 72.5%$6.32M
Oct 31Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement?By October 31 13%$2.79M
Oct 31Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts?By October 31 50.9%$2.43M
Oct 31Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Yes 2.5%$1.76M
Oct 310 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?October 31 30%$898.7K
Oct 31Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Yes 9.5%$584.1K
Oct 31US Announces Diesel Export ban?By October 31 2.4%$480.2K
Oct 31US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief?By October 31 12%$411.0K
Oct 31Israel military action against Beirut?By October 31 6.0%$409.9K
Oct 31Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen?October 31 45.5%$282.1K
Oct 31Will Russia enter Mykhailivka?By October 31 18.5%$236.7K
Oct 31Will Iran target Iraq?By September 30 99.9%+$210.6K
Oct 31Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Alibaba 39.5%$178.8K
Oct 31Will Iran target an Arab country?By September 30 99.9%+$160.3K
Oct 31Will Russia target Kyiv?October 31 53%$155.8K
Oct 31Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar?By October 31 3.4%$150.1K
Oct 31U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S.?✔ September 30, October 31$148.6K
Oct 31Will Iran target Qatar?By October 31 7.5%$145.9K
Oct 31Houthis seize an oil tanker?By October 31 6.5%$144.0K
Oct 31Houthis successfully target shipping?By October 31 38.5%$129.3K
Oct 31Will Russia enter Moskovka?By October 31 17%$116.9K
Oct 31US-Yemen ceasefire continues?Through October 31 80.5%$110.3K
Oct 31Will Ukraine target Moscow?October 6 99.9%$98.5K
Oct 31Who will Trump speak to by October 31?Friedrich Merz 97.1%$96.1K
Oct 31Israel military action against Lebanon?October 31 92%$94.9K
Oct 31Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas?By October 31 17.5%$90.7K
Oct 31Will Russia capture Shevchenko?By October 31 39%$71.0K
Oct 31Will Russia capture Svitle?By October 31 3.9%$70.1K
Oct 31Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?Kaitlan Collins 99.8%$53.2K
Oct 31Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?Alibaba 47%$48.4K
Oct 31Another Iranian Ambassador expelled?By October 31 10.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$45.0K
Oct 31Will Iran target Syria?By October 31 4.0% (as of 2026-10-05)$44.0K
Oct 31Who will Trump meet with by October 31?Sam Altman 32%$40.3K

57 smaller markets in this section are in the JSON file.

Sports

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Oct 3Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2Trading ended · awaiting result · last Mayweather 50%$224.7K
Oct 4MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals✔ New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays (+13 more)$157.0K
Oct 5MLB Playoffs: Team to advance to NLDS✔ Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers (+1 more)$28.3K
Oct 5MLB Playoffs: Team to advance to ALDSChicago White Sox 99.9%+ (as of 2026-10-01)$22.1K
Oct 8WNBA: Assists Per Game Leader✔ Alyssa Thomas$438.2K
Oct 8WNBA: Three Point Percentage Leader✔ Other$52.8K
Oct 8WNBA: Blocks Per Game Leader✔ A'ja Wilson$31.5K
Oct 11MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)✔ Cincinnati Reds$1.30M
Oct 11MLB: 2026 AL Central Champion✔ Cleveland Guardians$707.5K
Oct 11MLB: Most Home Runs (Team)✔ Houston Astros$611.2K
Oct 11MLB: Team to win 100+ games✔ Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers$324.1K
Oct 11MLB Wins Leader (2026)✔ Sonny Gray$40.2K
Oct 1246th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament Winner✔ Uzbekistan$341.5K
Oct 12BLAST Slam VIII: WinnerPARIVISION 45.5%$35.6K
Oct 15MLB: Home Runs Leader✔ Pete Crow-Armstrong$3.30M
Oct 15MLB: Strikeouts Leader - Pitcher✔ Jacob Misiorowski$3.00M
Oct 15MLB: ERA Leader✔ Jacob Misiorowski$1.80M
Oct 15MLB: Runs Leader✔ Pete Crow-Armstrong$1.70M
Oct 15MLB: RBIs Leader✔ Alec Burleson$1.66M
Oct 15MLB: Batting Average Leader✔ Yordan Alvarez$1.40M
Oct 15MLB: Triples Leader✔ Corbin Carroll$1.32M
Oct 15MLB: Doubles Leader✔ Bryan Reynolds$1.13M
Oct 15MLB: Stolen Bases Leader✔ Nasim Nuñez$688.0K
Oct 15MLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks?✔ Soto$32.6K
Oct 15MLB: Player to Record Most Intentional Walks?✔ Yordan Alvarez$21.4K
Oct 15MLB Playoffs: Team to advance to ALCSChicago White Sox 80.5%$18.3K
Oct 15MLB Playoffs: Team to advance to NLCSMilwaukee Brewers 89.5%$17.2K
Oct 19VALORANT Champions 2026: Winner100 Thieves 30.5%$74.2K
Oct 19VALORANT Champions 2026 Winning RegionAmericas 72.5%$16.9K
Oct 21Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?Yes 0.4%$309.7K
Oct 22NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?Yes 0.5%$292.0K
Oct 25ESL Pro League Season 24: WinnerVitality 37.5%$200.7K
Oct 26Women's Ballon d'Or Winner 2026Alexia Putellas 88.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$22.1K
Oct 27Presidents Cup 2026 WinnerUSA 37.5% (as of 2026-09-27)$17.1K
Oct 29Team to Qualify for Worlds 2026?Gen.G Esports 99.9%+$38.8K
Oct 31MLB World Series Champion 2026Los Angeles Dodgers 28.5%$43.37M
Oct 31NBA Free Agency: Jalen Duren Next Team✔ Detroit Pistons$231.4K
Oct 31MLB: 2026 AL West Champion✔ Houston Astros$180.8K
Oct 31NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27?Yes 0.8%$102.0K
Oct 31Demacia Cup Global Invitational 2026: WinnerKT Rolster 46.5%$99.8K

26 smaller markets in this section are in the JSON file.

Crypto

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Oct 31What price will Bitcoin hit in October?↑ 87,500 80.5%$2.74M
Oct 31What price will Ethereum hit in October?↑ 2,800 78.5%$808.4K
Oct 31What price will XRP hit in October?↑ 1.60 66.5%$96.8K
Oct 31What price will Solana hit in October?↑ 130 57%$50.7K
Oct 31Senate passes Clarity Act?By October 31 1.2% (as of 2026-10-05)$50.0K
Oct 31What price will Dogecoin hit in October?↑ 0.10 80.5%$19.8K
Oct 31What price will Hyperliquid hit in October?↑ 96 78%$6.9K
Oct 31What price will BNB hit in October?↑ 1,000 38.5%$3.7K
Oct 31What will the Ethereum Implied Volatility Index hit by October 31?↓ 50 99.6% (as of 2026-10-03)$1.9K
Oct 31What will the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index hit by October 31?↑ 45 73.5% (as of 2026-10-03)$1.4K

Tech and AI

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Oct 1Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?✔ ↑$1.325T, ↑$1.3T$37.8K
Oct 20OpenAI resumes training?Not resumed by October 20 46%$26.3K
Oct 31Which company has the best AI model end of October?Google 66.5%$1.92M
Oct 31Next Google Gemini Pro Model released?By October 31 21.5%$1.59M
Oct 31Largest Company end of October 2026?NVIDIA 96.2%$187.0K
Oct 31SSI public model released by…?October 31 14%$130.0K
Oct 31Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?SpaceXAI 19.5%$98.6K
Oct 31Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of October?Anthropic 78.5%$97.9K
Oct 31Situational Awareness raises new capital?By October 31 5.0%$81.5K
Oct 31Next Gemini Pro Model released?No release by October 31 77.5%$70.8K
Oct 31Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?Google 45%$70.3K
Oct 31Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?Anthropic 55.5%$64.2K
Oct 31Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)Google 66.7%$63.7K
Oct 31Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?Google 39.4%$60.2K
Oct 31Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?Meta 39.8%$58.4K
Oct 31Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?Anthropic 80%$57.9K
Oct 31Third-best AI Lab end of October?Meta 46%$53.3K
Oct 31#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)Meta 56%$52.0K
Oct 31Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?OpenAI 77.5%$50.6K
Oct 31#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)Anthropic 61.5%$49.1K
Oct 31Second-best AI Lab end of October?Anthropic 66%$48.9K
Oct 31GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of October?$0.60+ 56.5%$48.4K
Oct 31GPU rental prices (A100) end of October?$0.75-$1.00 64.5%$46.9K
Oct 31Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of October?Google 76%$46.8K
Oct 31Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of October?Anthropic 70.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$46.6K
Oct 31GPU rental prices (H200) end of October?$5.50+ 45.1%$44.0K
Oct 31GPU rental prices (B200) end of October?$6.50+ 65.5%$38.0K
Oct 31Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?Anthropic 74%$36.4K
Oct 31Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI?By October 31 36.5%$36.2K
Oct 31Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of October?OpenAI 77% (as of 2026-10-05)$34.3K
Oct 31Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of October?OpenAI 93%$33.6K
Oct 31Third-best AI Agent Lab end of October?Google 58.8%$30.5K
Oct 31GPU rental prices (H100) end of October?$3.00+ 31%$30.2K
Oct 31Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?Anthropic 88.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$29.2K
Oct 31Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released?By October 31 88% (as of 2026-10-05)$29.2K
Oct 31Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of October?OpenAI 91.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$27.2K
Oct 313rd Largest Company end of October?Alphabet 86%$23.9K
Oct 31Meta's Watermelon released?No release by October 31 41.5%$23.3K
Oct 31OpenAI resumes US ChatGPT Pro 20x signups?✔ September 30, 2026, October 31, 2026$22.3K
Oct 31Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released?No release by October 31 11.5%$20.8K

35 smaller markets in this section are in the JSON file.

Culture and awards

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Oct 1What will be said during Episode 41 of Big Brother?✔ Veto 5+ times, Surprise, Date (+4 more)$32.8K
Oct 1Anna Wintour Attends Which NY Fashion Week Shows?Carolina Herrera 4.4% (as of 2026-09-28)$9.9K
Oct 2'The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore' First Week Album Sales?✔ 150k+, 100k+, 160k+ (+5 more)$132.8K
Oct 2Taylor Swift "Patient Zero" First Week Streams?47m+ 51.8%$105.5K
Oct 2"Primetime" Rotten Tomatoes Score?✔ 70+, 80+, 85+ (+1 more)$24.9K
Oct 3# of views of MrBeast Gaming video week 1?✔ 30–35M$334.0K
Oct 4"Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office✔ <17m$126.2K
Oct 4"Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office✔ 28m+$86.9K
Oct 4"Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)✔ <9m$69.1K
Oct 4"Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Strikes)✔ 32-34m$62.9K
Oct 4"Resident Evil" 3rd Weekend Box Office12-13m 98.9% (as of 2026-10-05)$40.4K
Oct 4"Heart of the Beast" 2nd Weekend Box Office9-11M 60.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$26.8K
Oct 4"Forgotten Island" 2nd Weekend Box Office7-8M 98.4% (as of 2026-10-05)$14.4K
Oct 4"Primetime" 2nd Weekend Box Office7-9m 99.1%$9.6K
Oct 4What will be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (September 28)Right 98% (as of 2026-09-29)$8.1K
Oct 5"Verity" Rotten Tomatoes Score?32+ 99.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$16.2K
Oct 6Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 10Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley 97.8% (as of 2026-10-02)$14.9K
Oct 6Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of October 10The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore 99.1% (as of 2026-10-03)$7.2K
Oct 6Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of October 10Patient Zero - Taylor Swift 99.5% (as of 2026-10-04)$5.2K
Oct 9"Digger" Rotten Tomatoes Score?40+ 99.8% (as of 2026-10-05)$45.2K
Oct 10# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?100M+ 99.9%+$344.4K
Oct 11"Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office27-30m 33%$5.5K
Oct 11"The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office5-7m 48.5%$4.0K
Oct 12"Other Mommy" Rotten Tomatoes Score?30+ 81.8%$3.3K
Oct 12"The Social Reckoning" Rotten Tomatoes Score?40+ 99.9%$2.4K
Oct 13Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of October 17Patient Zero - Taylor Swift 73.4%$20.9K
Oct 13Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 17Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley 76%$13.0K
Oct 13Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of October 17The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore 84%$4.8K
Oct 15Jynxzi, Ron, and Los beat Minecraft?By October 15 93%$36.9K
Oct 19"Sense and Sensibility" Rotten Tomatoes Score?60+ 98.2%$14.7K
Oct 19"You Can See Everything" Rotten Tomatoes Score?80+ 97.5%$4.1K
Oct 31Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Yes 1.6%$941.7K
Oct 31"Resident Evil" total domestic gross by October 31?150 - 160m 54.5%$61.2K
Oct 31"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by October 31?<970m 95.7%$48.0K
Oct 31Taylor Swift monthly listeners hits __ by October 31?↑ 107m 54%$37.9K
Oct 31Taylor Swift daily view count hits ___ in October?↑24M 19.5%$10.5K
Oct 31Clavicular charges dropped by October 31?Yes 7.5% (as of 2026-10-03)$6.8K
Oct 31Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?Yes 0.3% (as of 2026-10-01)$5.0K
Oct 31#2 Spotify Artist in October?The Weeknd 44.5%$4.4K
Oct 31What will MrBeast say during his next gaming YouTube video?Dream 74.5% (as of 2026-09-26)$3.5K

6 smaller markets in this section are in the JSON file.

Other markets

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Oct 1Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?✔ 4.4-4.6m sq km$105.0K
Oct 1What will the biggest earthquake be on September 30, 2026?5.5 to 5.6 99.8% (as of 2026-10-01)$5.2K
Oct 2Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?✔ Midwest (MISO), Mid-Atlantic (PJM)$47.1K
Oct 2What will the biggest earthquake be on October 1, 2026?5.3 to 5.4 99.1% (as of 2026-10-02)$6.1K
Oct 3Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September?Chile 1.8% (as of 2026-10-03)$7.2K
Oct 3What will the biggest earthquake be on October 2, 2026?5.7 to 5.8 99% (as of 2026-10-03)$5.5K
Oct 4What will the biggest earthquake be on October 3, 2026?5.9 to 6.0 98.5% (as of 2026-10-04)$6.7K
Oct 5Surigae makes landfall in Japan?Yes 1.9% (as of 2026-10-03)$8.2K
Oct 5What will the biggest earthquake be on October 4, 2026?5.5 to 5.6 77.3% (as of 2026-10-05)$7.2K
Oct 6Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane?Yes 97% (as of 2026-09-28)$9.8K
Oct 15How strong will Choi-wan be?Very strong 93.5%$30.1K
Oct 15How strong will Nolo be?Category 4 96.7% (as of 2026-10-05)$15.7K
Oct 15How strong will Rachel be?Category 3 94.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$13.5K
Oct 17Highest 24-hour rainfall in Bangkok, October 4-10?20-50mm 49.5%$669
Oct 31When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?October 26 to October 31, 2026 4.2%$8.6K
Oct 31How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by October 31?6.5+ 89.5%$4.6K
Oct 31Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October86 to 95 km/h 45%$1.3K

Dates are the end dates Polymarket lists; deadlines set at 11:59 PM or midnight US Eastern Time count on their Eastern day. Trading stops at the end date and payout follows resolution (see how markets resolve). Results appear here once a market settles. Free data: /api/v1/calendar/october-2026.json (CC BY 4.0).

Frequently asked questions

What are the biggest prediction markets in October 2026?

Brazil Presidential Election (Oct 4, Flávio Bolsonaro 83.9%); MLB World Series Champion 2026 (Oct 31, Los Angeles Dodgers 28.5%); Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? (Oct 27, Gadi Eizenkot 46.8%). Figures as of October 6, 2026.

How are the dates on this calendar chosen?

Each market is placed on the end date Polymarket lists for it. Deadlines set at 11:59 PM or midnight US Eastern Time count on their Eastern day. Trading stops at the end date; payout follows once the market resolves under its rules, which can take longer.

Which markets are left out?

Single games and short recurring series (up/down, daily prices, weather, weekly post counts, stock price paths). Central-bank decisions, data releases, elections, awards and season-long sports markets are included.

November 2026 calendar · Markets ending in the next 14 days · Event guides · All Polymarket odds

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