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Resolved market · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 5, 2026
This market has closed. At the last update (October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC) it had settled on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, after $10.94M of total trading volume.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 100% | +60.4 pts | $2.30M |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 0.0% | -59.5 pts | $2.67M |
| Renan Santos | 0.0% | — | $1.45M |
| Fernando Haddad | 0.0% | — | $813.7K |
| Ratinho Júnior | 0.0% | — | $750.2K |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0.0% | — | $570.6K |
| Romeu Zema | 0.0% | — | $421.7K |
| Augusto Cury | 0.0% | — | $290.2K |
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 0.0% | — | $274.6K |
| Geraldo Alckmin | 0.0% | — | $234.1K |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0.0% | — | $229.0K |
| Camilo Santana | 0.0% | — | $207.9K |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.0% | — | $205.3K |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0.0% | — | $174.0K |
| Aldo Rebelo | 0.0% | — | $144.7K |
17 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $10.94M · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $0. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ■ Flávio Bolsonaro ■ Renan Santos · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Brazil odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
This market has closed. At the last update (October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC) it had settled on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, after $10.94M of total trading volume.
The event's listed end date is October 5, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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