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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Tech & AI · Market end date: October 31, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No release by October 31 at 78.5%, followed by October 6 at 9.6%, October 20 at 4.0%. The market has $71.3K in total volume and $2.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| No release by October 31 | 78.5% | -5.0 pts | $47.2K |
| October 6 | 9.6% | +5.9 pts | $573 |
| October 20 | 4.0% | -0.2 pts | $257 |
| October 12 | 3.8% | -3.1 pts | $374 |
| October 25 | 3.5% | +0.1 pts | $718 |
| October 10 | 3.1% | +0.2 pts | $1.6K |
| October 23 | 2.9% | — | $874 |
| October 13 | 2.6% | -1.9 pts | $506 |
| October 11 | 1.9% | -0.1 pts | $3.3K |
| October 17 | 1.1% | -0.1 pts | $909 |
| October 30 | 1.0% | -1.1 pts | $1.2K |
| October 27 | 1.0% | -1.2 pts | $1.1K |
| October 8 | 0.9% | -2.0 pts | $784 |
| October 7 | 0.9% | -0.4 pts | $503 |
| October 14 | 0.9% | -0.8 pts | $403 |
17 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $71.3K · 24h volume $2.4K · Liquidity $45.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ No release by October 31 ■ October 6 ■ October 20 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: AI odds · Big Tech odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC, the leading outcome is No release by October 31 at 78.5%, followed by October 6 at 9.6%, October 20 at 4.0%. The market has $71.3K in total volume and $2.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is October 31, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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