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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Sam Altman at 32%, followed by Elon Musk at 24%, Dario Amodei at 17.5%. The market has $40.3K in total volume and $826 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Altman | 32% | +7.5 pts | $612 |
| Elon Musk | 24% | -10.0 pts | $2.3K |
| Dario Amodei | 17.5% | — | $1.8K |
| Javier Milei | 14% | +2.0 pts | $13.1K |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 13% | — | $1.2K |
| Mark Carney | 9.0% | +2.0 pts | $1.2K |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 8.0% | -2.0 pts | $3.9K |
| Giorgia Meloni | 7.0% | -0.5 pts | $994 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel | 6.9% | -2.1 pts | $383 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 6.5% | -5.0 pts | $4.6K |
| Andy Burnham | 5.0% | -0.5 pts | $309 |
| Joseph Aoun | 2.9% | +0.1 pts | $190 |
| Vladimir Putin | 2.6% | -0.2 pts | $1.5K |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 2.5% | -2.0 pts | $2.2K |
| Kim Jong Un | 1.3% | +0.3 pts | $1.3K |
2 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $40.3K · 24h volume $826 · Liquidity $154.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Sam Altman ■ Elon Musk ■ Dario Amodei · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Sam Altman at 32%, followed by Elon Musk at 24%, Dario Amodei at 17.5%. The market has $40.3K in total volume and $826 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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