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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 1, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Friedrich Merz at 97.1%, followed by Mark Carney at 91.8%, Ursula von der Leyen at 87%. The market has $96.1K in total volume and $1.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Macron (settled) | 100% | +58.0 pts | $5.5K |
| Friedrich Merz | 97.1% | +1.4 pts | $1.6K |
| Mark Carney | 91.8% | -5.8 pts | $4.6K |
| Ursula von der Leyen | 87% | +3.5 pts | $2.6K |
| Elon Musk | 72.5% | +0.5 pts | $1.5K |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 69% | +3.0 pts | $2.6K |
| Andy Burnham | 65.5% | -2.0 pts | $2.3K |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 54.5% | -3.5 pts | $2.1K |
| Vladimir Putin | 49.5% | -3.5 pts | $4.3K |
| Mark Rutte | 35.5% | +1.0 pts | $4.6K |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 32.5% | +6.0 pts | $53.9K |
| Lula da Silva | 28.5% | -6.5 pts | $660 |
| Xi Jinping | 6.0% | -2.0 pts | $4.0K |
| Kim Jong Un | 5.0% | — | $690 |
| Maria Corina Machado | 3.5% | -5.0 pts | $1.4K |
7 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $96.1K · 24h volume $1.5K · Liquidity $203.1K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Friedrich Merz ■ Mark Carney ■ Ursula von der Leyen · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.
The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered.
Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question.
This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe.
If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Trump odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Friedrich Merz at 97.1%, followed by Mark Carney at 91.8%, Ursula von der Leyen at 87%. The market has $96.1K in total volume and $1.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 1, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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