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Resolved market · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 5, 2026
This market has closed. At the last update (October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC) it had settled on Tarcísio de Freitas, after $354.9K of total trading volume.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarcísio de Freitas | 100% | +0.4 pts | $182.9K |
| Kim Kataguiri | 0.0% | — | $79.3K |
| Fernando Haddad | 0.0% | -0.3 pts | $58.2K |
| Erika Hilton | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $23.8K |
| Márcio França | 0.0% | — | $10.7K |
| Other | 0.0% | — | — |
| Placeholder 2 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Placeholder 3 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Placeholder 4 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Placeholder 5 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Placeholder 6 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Placeholder 7 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Placeholder 8 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Placeholder 9 | 0.0% | — | — |
| Placeholder 10 | 0.0% | — | — |
10 lower-priced outcomes are not shown; the full list is in the JSON data.
Total volume $354.9K · 24h volume $2.9K · Liquidity $0. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Tarcísio de Freitas ■ Kim Kataguiri ■ Fernando Haddad · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Brazil odds · Politics odds
This market has closed. At the last update (October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC) it had settled on Tarcísio de Freitas, after $354.9K of total trading volume.
The event's listed end date is October 5, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/so-paulo-governor-election-winner/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="São Paulo Governor Election Winner odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/so-paulo-governor-election-winner/">São Paulo Governor Election Winner odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
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