Home › Polymarket odds › Politics & Elections
Resolved market · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: October 5, 2026
This market has closed. At the last update (October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC) it had settled on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Flavio Bolsonaro, after $1.51M of total trading volume.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 100% | +3.9 pts | $897.6K |
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 100% | +2.2 pts | $269.4K |
| Tarcisio de Frietas | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $98.6K |
| Renan Santos | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $69.7K |
| Fernando Haddad | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $69.0K |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $43.8K |
| Romeu Zema | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $36.4K |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $20.9K |
| Ronaldo Caiado | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $3.4K |
Total volume $1.51M · 24h volume $0 · Liquidity $0. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ■ Flavio Bolsonaro ■ Tarcisio de Frietas · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: World Elections odds · Brazil odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
This market has closed. At the last update (October 6, 2026 at 12:50 UTC) it had settled on Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Flavio Bolsonaro, after $1.51M of total trading volume.
The event's listed end date is October 5, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff/">Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? — Polymarket odds”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff.svg" alt="Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog