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November 2026 prediction market calendar

Updated October 6, 2026 · refreshed twice a day · November 1–30, 2026 · dates are Polymarket's listed end dates

759 Polymarket markets end in November 2026 (single games and short recurring series left out); 2 have settled so far. The most traded: California Governor Election Winner (Nov 3, Xavier Becerra 96%); Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms (Nov 3, Democrats Sweep 65.5%); Which party will win the House in 2026? (Nov 3, Democratic Party 92.5%).

Key dates

By section: Economy, central banks and data releases (12) · Elections (653) · Politics and geopolitics (14) · Sports (29) · Tech and AI (36) · Culture and awards (8) · Other markets (7)

Economy, central banks and data releases

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Nov 2ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 202652.0 to 52.9 24% (as of 2026-10-05)$2.8K
Nov 3Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in NovemberNo change 85%$82.2K
Nov 3JOLTS Job Openings: September 20267.2M to 7.3M 25%$8.0K
Nov 4Bank of Brazil decision in November?25 bps decrease 73.5%$41.8K
Nov 5Bank of England decision in November?25 bps increase 85.5%$275.0K
Nov 5Bank of Mexico Decision in November?No change 94.5% (as of 2026-10-03)$36.5K
Nov 6How many jobs added in October?100k+ 31.5%$6.4K
Nov 6October Unemployment Rate4.2% 30.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$1.9K
Nov 12UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?0.4–0.5% 47%$29.1K
Nov 16Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?0.8%–1.6% 28.5%$35.5K
Nov 26Bank of Korea decision in November?25 bps hike 46.5%$32.3K
Nov 30SpaceX’s Market Cap end of November 2026?$2.00-$2.25T 22%$1.3K

Elections

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Nov 3California Governor Election WinnerXavier Becerra 96%$41.67M
Nov 3Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsDemocrats Sweep 65.5%$18.32M
Nov 3Which party will win the House in 2026?Democratic Party 92.5%$13.83M
Nov 3Which party will win the Senate in 2026?Democratic Party 65.5%$5.85M
Nov 3Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes 28%$3.88M
Nov 3Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?≤47 38.5%$3.06M
Nov 3Texas Senate Election WinnerJames Talarico (D) 64.5%$2.19M
Nov 3Maine Senate Election WinnerTroy Jackson (D) 58.5%$2.12M
Nov 3Alaska Governor Election WinnerJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 74.5%$1.40M
Nov 3Michigan Senate Election WinnerAbdul El-Sayed (D) 73.5%$1.31M
Nov 3Alaska Senate Election WinnerMary Peltola 73.5%$1.12M
Nov 3Ohio Senate Election WinnerSherrod Brown (D) 61.5%$1.05M
Nov 3Kansas Senate Election WinnerRoger Marshall (R) 67.5%$762.2K
Nov 3Iowa Senate Election WinnerAshley Hinson (R) 57.5%$729.4K
Nov 3Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerDavid Crowley (D) 80.5%$703.1K
Nov 3How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?22–23 32.5%$701.4K
Nov 3South Carolina Senate Election WinnerDarline Graham Nordone (R) 85.5%$656.1K
Nov 3Nebraska Senate Election WinnerPete Ricketts (R) 73.5%$496.5K
Nov 3Texas Governor Election WinnerGreg Abbott (R) 73%$446.9K
Nov 3Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?Florida 98.6%$419.0K
Nov 3ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?Not Extended & Democratic Party 92.5%$408.4K
Nov 3Nevada Governor Election WinnerAaron Ford (D) 55.5%$338.8K
Nov 3Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Below 190 30%$317.6K
Nov 3New Hampshire Senate Election WinnerChris Pappas (D) 87%$308.2K
Nov 3Ohio Governor Election WinnerAmy Acton (D) 67.5%$282.5K
Nov 3Florida Governor Election WinnerByron Donalds (R) 76.5%$261.8K
Nov 3Michigan Governor Election WinnerJocelyn Benson (D) 94.1%$245.3K
Nov 3North Carolina Senate Election WinnerRoy Cooper (D) 96.2%$214.7K
Nov 3Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?Yes 2.4%$207.9K
Nov 3Georgia Senate Election WinnerJon Ossoff (D) 96.2%$206.2K
Nov 3Minnesota Senate Election WinnerPeggy Flanagan (D) 86.5%$195.6K
Nov 3Next Senate Majority Leader?Chuck Schumer 47.5%$172.0K
Nov 3Vermont Governor Election WinnerPhil Scott (R) 76.5%$171.0K
Nov 3Florida Senate Election WinnerAshley Moody (R) 91.5%$165.7K
Nov 3New York Governor Election WinnerKathy Hochul (D) 96.1%$162.8K
Nov 3Montana Senate Election WinnerKurt Alme (R) 91.5%$156.6K
Nov 32026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of VictoryDemocrats 8-10% 29.5%$153.3K
Nov 3Georgia Governor Election WinnerRick Jackson (R) 50.5%$152.1K
Nov 28Taipei Mayor Election WinnerChiang Wan-an 74.5%$571.1K
Nov 282026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party WinnerKuomintang (KMT) 89.5%$207.0K

613 smaller markets in this section are in the JSON file.

Politics and geopolitics

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Nov 3GOP's worst Great Plains Senate Race (IA, NE, KS)?Iowa 69.5% (as of 2026-10-04)$2.6K
Nov 4Who will Bernie endorse?Alan Grayson - FL-Sen 22.2%$190.3K
Nov 11Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?280M 81%$12.2K
Nov 30Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes 10%$605.0K
Nov 30Israel military action against Syria?By November 30 71%$79.3K
Nov 30Will Iran target Oman?By November 30 5.5%$44.4K
Nov 30EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?30M+ 86.5%$21.0K
Nov 30Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates?By November 30 53% (as of 2026-10-05)$14.5K
Nov 30Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November?Alibaba 23.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$10.0K
Nov 30Best Chinese AI Company end of November?Alibaba 35% (as of 2026-10-04)$8.8K
Nov 30USS George H.W. Bush in CENTCOM?November 30 53.5%$4.2K
Nov 30USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM?By November 30 98% (as of 2026-10-05)$2.5K
Nov 30How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?2 44.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$1.7K
Nov 30Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Yes 8.5% (as of 2026-10-04)$1.2K

Sports

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Nov 6NBA to announce expansion team in Las Vegas?By November 6 83% (as of 2026-10-03)$13.4K
Nov 14WNBA: 2026 ChampionAtlanta Dream 33.5%$1.48M
Nov 14WNBA: 2026 Defensive Player of the Year✔ Angel Reese$38.9K
Nov 15MLB Postseason: Longest Game11+ innings 78% (as of 2026-10-04)$9.8K
Nov 15MLB Postseason: Number of Walk-Offs1+ 99.9%+$7.3K
Nov 15MLB Postseason: World Series MVPShohei Ohtani 8.4% (as of 2026-10-04)$2.3K
Nov 15MLB 2026: World Series Division WinnerNL West 33.5%$1.3K
Nov 15MLB Postseason: Strikeout LeaderJacob Misiorowski 13.5% (as of 2026-10-02)$704
Nov 15MLB Postseason: RBI LeaderWilliam Contreras 12.6% (as of 2026-10-02)$631
Nov 15MLB Postseason: SB LeaderSam Antonacci 13.5% (as of 2026-10-02)$575
Nov 15MLB Postseason: Hit LeaderFernando Tatis Jr. 15.5% (as of 2026-10-02)$540
Nov 15MLB Postseason: Home Run LeaderMax Muncy 15.5% (as of 2026-10-02)$420
Nov 17Least Played Map at VALORANT Champions 2026Abyss 65.8%$15.4K
Nov 17Most Played Map at VALORANT Champions 2026Lotus 32%$12.5K
Nov 17Which Paper Rex player will have the most kills at VALORANT Champions 2026?d4v41 36%$9.7K
Nov 17Which NRG player will have the most kills at VALORANT Champions 2026?keiko 44.5%$8.4K
Nov 17Which G2 Esports player will have the most kills at VALORANT Champions 2026?jawgemo 37% (as of 2026-10-05)$8.2K
Nov 17Most Kills on a Single Map at VALORANT Champions 2026tkzin 57% (as of 2026-10-04)$4.4K
Nov 17VALORANT Champions 2026: First Pacific Team EliminatedGlobal Esports 91.8% (as of 2026-10-04)$1.2K
Nov 17VALORANT Champions 2026: First China Team EliminatedTYLOO 99.4% (as of 2026-10-01)$911
Nov 17Will a Chinese team reach the VALORANT Champions 2026 Grand Final?Yes 0.6% (as of 2026-10-03)$504
Nov 21NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion (2026)Justin Allgaier 29%$6.2K
Nov 22NASCAR Cup Series: 2026 ChampionKyle Larson 48.4%$57.2K
Nov 28Worlds 2026: WinnerGen.G 34%$333.3K
Nov 28Worlds 2026: Finals MVPChovy 15%$23.0K
Nov 30MLB: 2026 American League ChampionTampa Bay Rays 37%$4.57M
Nov 30MLB: 2026 National League ChampionMilwaukee Brewers 39.8%$4.09M
Nov 30Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?Team Heretics 98.6% (as of 2026-10-04)$21.6K
Nov 30KBO Korean Series Champion (2026)KT Wiz 44% (as of 2026-10-03)$7.8K

Tech and AI

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Nov 1When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?No release by November 1 79.5%$220.0K
Nov 19GTA 6 launch postponed again?Yes 3.8%$835.8K
Nov 30Gemini 4.0 released?By November 30 97.5%$1.11M
Nov 30Which company has the best AI model end of November?Google 52.5%$152.7K
Nov 30How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026?✔ 475k to 500k$132.9K
Nov 30Meta's "Watermelon" model released?By November 30 90.5%$77.8K
Nov 30Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released?By November 30 21.5% (as of 2026-10-03)$41.4K
Nov 30Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of November?Anthropic 53.5% (as of 2026-10-02)$24.6K
Nov 30#3 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)Meta 36.5%$24.5K
Nov 30Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?OpenAI 65.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$21.6K
Nov 30Second-best AI Lab end of November?Anthropic 49% (as of 2026-10-04)$21.4K
Nov 30Which company has #1 AI model end of November? (Style Control On)Anthropic 47.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$20.9K
Nov 30Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of November?OpenAI 89.5%$20.6K
Nov 30Next DeepSeek Pro released?By November 30 44% (as of 2026-10-03)$19.3K
Nov 30#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)Anthropic 38.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$18.3K
Nov 30GPU rental prices (H200) end of November?$5.00-$5.50 22%$16.3K
Nov 30Which company has the best AI Agent end of November?Anthropic 75.5% (as of 2026-10-03)$15.1K
Nov 30Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of November?Meta 20.1% (as of 2026-10-02)$14.1K
Nov 30Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) end of November?Anthropic 46.5%$13.4K
Nov 30Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of November?Google 42.5% (as of 2026-10-02)$13.2K
Nov 30GPU rental prices (A100) end of November?$0.75-$1.00 55%$12.6K
Nov 30Second-best AI Agent Lab end of November?OpenAI 66% (as of 2026-10-05)$12.3K
Nov 30Third-best AI Lab end of November?Meta 36.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$11.0K
Nov 30Third-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of November?Google 26.8% (as of 2026-10-02)$10.6K
Nov 30Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of November?Anthropic 70.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$9.4K
Nov 30Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?Google 61.5% (as of 2026-10-03)$9.3K
Nov 30Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released?By November 30 47.5% (as of 2026-10-02)$9.2K
Nov 30GPU rental prices (B200) end of November?<$7.00 22.5%$7.8K
Nov 30Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of November?Anthropic 67%$7.4K
Nov 30Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released?By November 30 68.5% (as of 2026-10-03)$7.3K
Nov 30Third-best AI Agent Lab end of November?Google 32.5% (as of 2026-10-02)$7.2K
Nov 30Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of November?Anthropic 82% (as of 2026-10-05)$5.8K
Nov 30GPU rental prices (H100) end of November?<$2.25 17.5%$5.4K
Nov 30GPU rental prices (RTX 5090) end of November?$0.55-$0.60 24.5% (as of 2026-10-05)$3.4K
Nov 30Next DeepSeek Flash released?By November 30 30.5% (as of 2026-10-04)$2.7K
Nov 30OpenAI’s valuation end of November 2026?$1.20-$1.30T 16.5%$2.5K

Culture and awards

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Nov 18CMA Music Video of the Year 2026Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) 50.5%$15.2K
Nov 18CMA New Artist of the Year 2026Stephen Wilson Jr. 49.5%$7.3K
Nov 18CMA Male Vocalist of the Year 2026Cody Johnson 46.5% (as of 2026-10-01)$6.1K
Nov 26Who will be featured on GTA VI: The Album?Kodak Black 88.5%$31.5K
Nov 30GTA VI released?By November 30 94.8%$199.2K
Nov 30Which mobs will eliminate Jynxzi, Ron or Los?Creeper 99.9%+$21.1K
Nov 30What will Jynxzi, Ron or Los be eliminated by?Falling 99.9%+$7.0K
Nov 30Jynxzi, Ron, and Los # of Minecraft deaths during marathon?150-179 32.5%$1.8K

Other markets

DateMarketOdds now / resultVolume
Nov 1When will the Danube River return to normal levels?Does not return by November 1, 2026 62%$123.5K
Nov 1When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?No return before November 1, 2026 70.5%$102.2K
Nov 1September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)1.35–1.39ºC 63% (as of 2026-10-05)$4.7K
Nov 3How many Chinook will pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?More than 550,000 98.9% (as of 2026-10-05)$9.5K
Nov 29October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?1st hottest 86.5%$2.7K
Nov 30What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?Isaias 65.7%$65.9K
Nov 30How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?1-3 45%$62.9K

Dates are the end dates Polymarket lists; deadlines set at 11:59 PM or midnight US Eastern Time count on their Eastern day. Trading stops at the end date and payout follows resolution (see how markets resolve). Results appear here once a market settles. Free data: /api/v1/calendar/november-2026.json (CC BY 4.0).

Frequently asked questions

What are the biggest prediction markets in November 2026?

California Governor Election Winner (Nov 3, Xavier Becerra 96%); Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms (Nov 3, Democrats Sweep 65.5%); Which party will win the House in 2026? (Nov 3, Democratic Party 92.5%). Figures as of October 6, 2026.

How are the dates on this calendar chosen?

Each market is placed on the end date Polymarket lists for it. Deadlines set at 11:59 PM or midnight US Eastern Time count on their Eastern day. Trading stops at the end date; payout follows once the market resolves under its rules, which can take longer.

Which markets are left out?

Single games and short recurring series (up/down, daily prices, weather, weekly post counts, stock price paths). Central-bank decisions, data releases, elections, awards and season-long sports markets are included.

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