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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: November 4, 2026
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Mary Peltola at 73.5%, followed by Sen. Dan Sullivan at 27.5%, Ann Diener at <0.1%. The market has $1.12M in total volume and $7.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 73.5% | +1.0 pts | $698.2K |
| Sen. Dan Sullivan | 27.5% | — | $337.8K |
| Ann Diener | <0.1% | — | $37.1K |
| Richard Grayson | <0.1% | — | $24.9K |
| Dustin Darden | <0.1% | — | $24.3K |
| David Leslie | <0.1% | — | $2.4K |
Total volume $1.12M · 24h volume $7.5K · Liquidity $859.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Mary Peltola ■ Sen. Dan Sullivan ■ Ann Diener · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
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As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Mary Peltola at 73.5%, followed by Sen. Dan Sullivan at 27.5%, Ann Diener at <0.1%. The market has $1.12M in total volume and $7.5K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is November 4, 2026. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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