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Elon Musk Odds on Polymarket
Updated October 6, 2026 · 66 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Elon Musk: weekly tweet counts, Tesla, SpaceX and his other ventures. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Elon Musk markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026? | 220-239 59% | +19.5 pts | $342.7K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026? | 200-219 32.5% | +5.0 pts | $148.3K | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026? | 200-219 24.5% | — | $119.1K | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets October 5 - October 7, 2026? | 40-64 62.5% | +5.5 pts | $65.8K | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026? | 1000+ 34.5% | +5.0 pts | $19.5K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI? | By October 31 36.5% | +13.5 pts | $13.0K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Elon Musk # tweets October 8 - October 10, 2026? | 40-64 58.5% | — | $8.1K | Oct 10, 2026 |
| Donald Trump # Truth Social posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? | 140-159 57.8% | +36.2 pts | $6.1K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced? | By December 31, 2027 59.5% | -3.0 pts | $4.4K | Jan 1, 2028 |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? | Anthropic 50.7% | +4.3 pts | $4.3K | Jan 2, 2027 |
| 3rd richest person on December 31? | Warren Buffett 37.6% | -1.2 pts | $2.8K | Jan 3, 2027 |
| SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15? | November 30, 2026 84.5% | -5.5 pts | $2.2K | Jul 1, 2027 |
| Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? | 160-179 26.5% | +4.0 pts | $2.1K | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Khamenei # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? | <5 98.7% | +5.2 pts | $2.1K | Oct 13, 2026 |
| White House # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? | 200+ 70.5% | -6.5 pts | $2.0K | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Khamenei # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? | <5 99.7% | +0.7 pts | $1.9K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Ted Cruz # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? | 100-119 43% | +23.0 pts | $1.9K | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? | 200+ 25% | +0.5 pts | $1.9K | Oct 13, 2026 |
| NYC Mayor # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? | 20-39 83.5% | -5.5 pts | $1.4K | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Zelenskyy # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? | 100-119 89% | +18.0 pts | $1.4K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| NYC Mayor # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? | 20-39 92.3% | +0.3 pts | $1.1K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? | Yes 19.5% | +4.5 pts | $1.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Ted Cruz # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? | 100-119 53% | -23.0 pts | $878 | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Zelenskyy # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? | 80-99 43% | +8.5 pts | $826 | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31? | $1.00-$1.10T 52% | +25.5 pts | $777 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| NYC Mayor # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? | 20-39 90% | -3.5 pts | $657 | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Zelenskyy # posts October 6 - October 13, 2026? | 80-99 46% | +10.5 pts | $628 | Oct 13, 2026 |
| CZ # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? | 20-39 84.5% | +16.0 pts | $557 | Oct 9, 2026 |
| What will Elon post this week? (October 5 - October 11) | Tesla 95.9% | +2.9 pts | $444 | Oct 11, 2026 |
| 2nd richest person on December 31? | Larry Page 43% | -2.0 pts | $407 | Jan 3, 2027 |
| White House # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? | 200+ 94.5% | +3.2 pts | $364 | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Grok 5 released? | By December 31 45.5% | -13.5 pts | $261 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| CZ # posts September 29 - October 6, 2026? | 20-39 99.2% | +1.2 pts | $213 | Oct 6, 2026 |
| X banned in any European country by December 31? | Yes 14.5% | +0.5 pts | $185 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Khamenei # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? | <5 97.6% | — | $179 | Oct 9, 2026 |
| How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? | 5-6 59% | -2.5 pts | $174 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space? | By December 31 25% | -41.0 pts | $141 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Richest person on December 31, 2026? | Elon Musk 96.8% | -0.1 pts | $129 | Jan 3, 2027 |
| Ted Cruz # posts October 2 - October 9, 2026? | 160-179 43% | +30.5 pts | $109 | Oct 9, 2026 |
| How many SpaceX launches in 2026? | 140-159 73.2% | -4.9 pts | $96 | Jan 1, 2027 |
26 smaller markets are not shown; all 66 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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How these markets work: Tweet count markets · Price range markets.
People in these markets
Elon Musk · Donald Trump · Ted Cruz
More Tech & AI odds
AI (186) · OpenAI (73) · Anthropic (66) · Big Tech (177) · Science & Space (97)
Frequently asked questions
What are the Elon Musk odds on Polymarket today?
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 66 live Elon Musk markets with $760.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026? (220-239 59%), followed by Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026? (200-219 32.5%), Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026? (200-219 24.5%).
How many Elon Musk markets are open on Polymarket?
66 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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Polymarket View, “Elon Musk odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/elon-musk/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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