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Weather Odds on Polymarket

Updated October 6, 2026 · 176 live markets · refreshed twice a day

As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 176 live Weather markets with $946.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? (1 64.5%), followed by Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 6? (29°C 40%), Highest temperature in Wellington on October 6? (16°C 99.5%).

Daily high and low temperatures in major cities, hurricanes and other weather markets. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.

Live Weather markets

MarketLeading outcome24h change24h volumeEnds
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?1 64.5%-6.0 pts$92.3KMar 2, 2027
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 6?29°C 40%+15.5 pts$41.2KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Wellington on October 6?16°C 99.5%+46.5 pts$23.2KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 6?96-97°F 30.2%+25.4 pts$23.1KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Singapore on October 6?33°C 67%+8.5 pts$22.9KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Shanghai on October 6?24°C 74.5%+17.5 pts$22.3KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 6?21°C 68%+19.5 pts$18.2KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Paris on October 6?25°C 53.5%+8.0 pts$16.2KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Dallas on October 6?84-85°F 51.5%+19.5 pts$16.2KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on October 6?28°C 50%+10.5 pts$15.8KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 6?27°C 55.5%+18.0 pts$14.8KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Chongqing on October 6?24°C 37.5%-3.5 pts$14.8KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Madrid on October 6?21°C 37%-1.5 pts$14.6KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Chicago on October 6?72-73°F 62.5%+15.0 pts$14.6KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Helsinki on October 6?16°C 62.5%+3.5 pts$14.1KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 6?27°C 53%+35.0 pts$13.6KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on October 6?28°C 70.5%+15.0 pts$13.3KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Denver on October 6?86-87°F 54.5%-1.0 pts$13.1KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in London on October 6?21°C 47.5%+3.0 pts$12.9KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Austin on October 6?88-89°F 49%+29.0 pts$12.3KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 6?77°F or below 45.1%+23.5 pts$11.8KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Chongqing on October 7?28°C 35%—$11.7KOct 7, 2026
Highest temperature in Beijing on October 6?26°C 57.5%+9.0 pts$11.6KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Manila on October 6?32°C 39%+14.5 pts$11.6KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Toronto on October 6?16°C 54.5%+10.0 pts$11.4KOct 6, 2026
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 6?23°C 95.5%+49.0 pts$11.3KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on October 6?24°C 33%-4.0 pts$11.1KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in NYC on October 6?62-63°F 55.5%+11.5 pts$11.1KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 6?27°C 45%+11.5 pts$11.0KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Atlanta on October 6?78-79°F 45.5%-2.0 pts$10.8KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Warsaw on October 6?21°C 66%+13.0 pts$10.5KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Milan on October 6?23°C 48%+1.5 pts$10.2KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 6?18°C 59%+9.0 pts$9.9KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 7?22°C 50.5%—$9.6KOct 7, 2026
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 6?23°C 41.5%+30.0 pts$9.2KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Shanghai on October 7?26°C 53.5%—$8.6KOct 7, 2026
Highest temperature in Jeddah on October 6?35°C 55%+3.5 pts$8.5KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Munich on October 6?22°C 63%+11.0 pts$8.5KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Houston on October 6?88-89°F 64.5%+10.0 pts$8.1KOct 6, 2026
Highest temperature in Taipei on October 6?26°C 45%+5.0 pts$8.1KOct 6, 2026

136 smaller markets are not shown; all 176 are in the JSON data.

For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.

🔔 Get alerts when big Weather markets move — free Telegram watchlist

How these markets work: Temperature markets.

Frequently asked questions

What are the Weather odds on Polymarket today?

As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 176 live Weather markets with $946.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? (1 64.5%), followed by Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 6? (29°C 40%), Highest temperature in Wellington on October 6? (16°C 99.5%).

How many Weather markets are open on Polymarket?

176 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.

Where do these odds come from?

From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.

Use this data

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<p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/weather/">Weather odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>

Free JSON

/api/v1/topics/weather.json — every live market on the topic, CC BY 4.0 (credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link). See the developer docs.

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[![Weather odds odds on Polymarket](https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/topic/weather.svg)](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/weather/)

Cite this page

Polymarket View, “Weather odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/weather/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).

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