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Weather Odds on Polymarket
Updated October 6, 2026 · 176 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Daily high and low temperatures in major cities, hurricanes and other weather markets. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Weather markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? | 1 64.5% | -6.0 pts | $92.3K | Mar 2, 2027 |
| Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 6? | 29°C 40% | +15.5 pts | $41.2K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Wellington on October 6? | 16°C 99.5% | +46.5 pts | $23.2K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 6? | 96-97°F 30.2% | +25.4 pts | $23.1K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Singapore on October 6? | 33°C 67% | +8.5 pts | $22.9K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Shanghai on October 6? | 24°C 74.5% | +17.5 pts | $22.3K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 6? | 21°C 68% | +19.5 pts | $18.2K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Paris on October 6? | 25°C 53.5% | +8.0 pts | $16.2K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Dallas on October 6? | 84-85°F 51.5% | +19.5 pts | $16.2K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Guangzhou on October 6? | 28°C 50% | +10.5 pts | $15.8K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 6? | 27°C 55.5% | +18.0 pts | $14.8K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Chongqing on October 6? | 24°C 37.5% | -3.5 pts | $14.8K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Madrid on October 6? | 21°C 37% | -1.5 pts | $14.6K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Chicago on October 6? | 72-73°F 62.5% | +15.0 pts | $14.6K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Helsinki on October 6? | 16°C 62.5% | +3.5 pts | $14.1K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 6? | 27°C 53% | +35.0 pts | $13.6K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on October 6? | 28°C 70.5% | +15.0 pts | $13.3K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Denver on October 6? | 86-87°F 54.5% | -1.0 pts | $13.1K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in London on October 6? | 21°C 47.5% | +3.0 pts | $12.9K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Austin on October 6? | 88-89°F 49% | +29.0 pts | $12.3K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in San Francisco on October 6? | 77°F or below 45.1% | +23.5 pts | $11.8K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Chongqing on October 7? | 28°C 35% | — | $11.7K | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Beijing on October 6? | 26°C 57.5% | +9.0 pts | $11.6K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Manila on October 6? | 32°C 39% | +14.5 pts | $11.6K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Toronto on October 6? | 16°C 54.5% | +10.0 pts | $11.4K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 6? | 23°C 95.5% | +49.0 pts | $11.3K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on October 6? | 24°C 33% | -4.0 pts | $11.1K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in NYC on October 6? | 62-63°F 55.5% | +11.5 pts | $11.1K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 6? | 27°C 45% | +11.5 pts | $11.0K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Atlanta on October 6? | 78-79°F 45.5% | -2.0 pts | $10.8K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Warsaw on October 6? | 21°C 66% | +13.0 pts | $10.5K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Milan on October 6? | 23°C 48% | +1.5 pts | $10.2K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 6? | 18°C 59% | +9.0 pts | $9.9K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 7? | 22°C 50.5% | — | $9.6K | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 6? | 23°C 41.5% | +30.0 pts | $9.2K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Shanghai on October 7? | 26°C 53.5% | — | $8.6K | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Jeddah on October 6? | 35°C 55% | +3.5 pts | $8.5K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Munich on October 6? | 22°C 63% | +11.0 pts | $8.5K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Houston on October 6? | 88-89°F 64.5% | +10.0 pts | $8.1K | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Highest temperature in Taipei on October 6? | 26°C 45% | +5.0 pts | $8.1K | Oct 6, 2026 |
136 smaller markets are not shown; all 176 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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How these markets work: Temperature markets.
Frequently asked questions
What are the Weather odds on Polymarket today?
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 176 live Weather markets with $946.6K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? (1 64.5%), followed by Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 6? (29°C 40%), Highest temperature in Wellington on October 6? (16°C 99.5%).
How many Weather markets are open on Polymarket?
176 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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Polymarket View, “Weather odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/weather/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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