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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Politics & Elections · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Somaliland at 14%, followed by Jordan at 8.5%, Kuwait at 6.5%. The market has $1.73M in total volume and $36.6K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Somaliland | 14% | +5.5 pts | $117.4K |
| Jordan | 8.5% | -19.5 pts | $10.4K |
| Kuwait | 6.5% | -2.0 pts | $83.3K |
| Lebanon | 6.5% | — | $79.6K |
| Qatar | 6.0% | +0.7 pts | $9.0K |
| Egypt | 5.8% | — | $7.5K |
| Syria | 5.4% | +0.4 pts | $165.9K |
| Oman | 5.0% | -0.1 pts | $182.9K |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.5% | -2.0 pts | $402.1K |
| Turkey | 4.0% | — | $488.3K |
| Pakistan | 2.9% | -0.1 pts | $9.2K |
| Azerbaijan | 2.2% | — | $178.8K |
Total volume $1.73M · 24h volume $36.6K · Liquidity $214.6K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ Somaliland ■ Jordan ■ Kuwait · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Israel odds · Middle East odds · Politics odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Somaliland at 14%, followed by Jordan at 8.5%, Kuwait at 6.5%. The market has $1.73M in total volume and $36.6K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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