Home › Polymarket odds › Geopolitics & World
Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Geopolitics & World · Market end date: January 1, 2027
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 22%, followed by By March 31, 2027 at 20.5%, By December 31, 2027 at 18.5%. The market has $8.51M in total volume and $717 in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By June 30, 2027 | 22% | — | $283 |
| By March 31, 2027 | 20.5% | — | $250 |
| By December 31, 2027 | 18.5% | — | $51 |
| By December 31 | 3.1% | — | $248.1K |
| By June 30 (settled) | 0.0% | +0.1 pts | $3.52M |
| By July 31 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $2.15M |
| By May 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $1.54M |
| By August 31 (settled) | 0.0% | — | $669.3K |
| By September 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.1 pts | $295.1K |
| By April 30 (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $75.0K |
Total volume $8.51M · 24h volume $717 · Liquidity $57.9K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By June 30, 2027 ■ By March 31, 2027 ■ By December 31, 2027 · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
🔔 Get alerts when big markets move — free Telegram watchlist
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Iran odds · Israel odds · Geopolitics odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By June 30, 2027 at 22%, followed by By March 31, 2027 at 20.5%, By December 31, 2027 at 18.5%. The market has $8.51M in total volume and $717 in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 1, 2027. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
Paste this on your site, blog or newsletter. It updates with our page. How to embed
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/odds/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Israel withdraws from Lebanon? odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon/">Israel withdraws from Lebanon? odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
/api/v1/odds/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon.json — CC BY 4.0, credit “PolymarketTrader” with a link. See the developer docs.
Polymarket View, “Israel withdraws from Lebanon? — Polymarket odds”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
For READMEs, newsletters and forums. Markdown:
[](https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon/)
HTML:
<a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon/"><img src="https://polymarkettrader.com/badge/odds/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon.svg" alt="Israel withdraws from Lebanon? odds on Polymarket" width="400" height="64"></a>
Polymarket View is an independent research site, not affiliated with Polymarket. Educational information, not financial advice. All Polymarket odds · Event hubs · Blog