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Updated October 6, 2026 · Category: Economy & Fed · Market end date: January 29, 2028
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By July 2027 Meeting at 53%, followed by By June 2027 Meeting at 36%, By April 2027 Meeting at 29.5%. The market has $3.75M in total volume and $3.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| By July 2027 Meeting | 53% | — | $109 |
| By June 2027 Meeting | 36% | — | $27 |
| By April 2027 Meeting | 29.5% | -1.0 pts | $50 |
| By March 2027 Meeting | 22% | -0.5 pts | $397 |
| By January 2027 Meeting | 7.0% | +0.5 pts | $1.7K |
| By December 2026 Meeting | 4.5% | +0.6 pts | $390.9K |
| By October 2026 Meeting | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $211.5K |
| By June Meeting (settled) | 0.0% | -0.7 pts | $785.0K |
| By September 2026 Meeting (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $645.1K |
| By January Meeting (settled) | 0.0% | -0.8 pts | $588.1K |
| By July Meeting (settled) | 0.0% | -0.2 pts | $579.1K |
| By April Meeting (settled) | 0.0% | -0.4 pts | $543.0K |
| By March Meeting (settled) | 0.0% | +0.4 pts | — |
Total volume $3.75M · 24h volume $3.4K · Liquidity $239.2K. Prices are Polymarket YES-share prices read as probabilities; they are not executable quotes.
■ By July 2027 Meeting ■ By June 2027 Meeting ■ By April 2027 Meeting · 30-day price history (12-hour points)
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Summary of the market's published rules. The rules on Polymarket control settlement; check them there before relying on any outcome: open this market on Polymarket.
More odds by topic: Fed & Interest Rates odds · US Economy odds
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, the leading outcome is By July 2027 Meeting at 53%, followed by By June 2027 Meeting at 36%, By April 2027 Meeting at 29.5%. The market has $3.75M in total volume and $3.4K in the last 24 hours.
The event's listed end date is January 29, 2028. Each outcome settles under the market's written rules, summarized on this page, which can differ from the end-date field.
They are the displayed prices of each outcome's YES share on Polymarket. A price of 60¢ implies roughly a 60% chance. This page refreshes the numbers twice a day, so they are not live quotes.
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