Home › Polymarket odds › Fed rates › Fed rate odds by meeting · Español · Português
Updated October 6, 2026 at 01:27 UTC · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket traders give 80.5% to no change at the Fed's October 27–28, 2026 meeting (as of October 6, 2026), 19.5% to a 25 bps hike. Most likely at the next meetings: December: a 25 bps hike 74.5%; January: no change 57.5%. Adding up each meeting's market-implied change gives about +33 bps over the next 3 meetings.
| Meeting | Cut 50+ | Cut 25 | No change | Hike 25 | Hike 50+ | Most likely | Implied change (bps) | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 27–28, 2026 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 80.5% | 19.5% | 0.4% | No change | +4.8 | $26.77M |
| December 8–9, 2026 | 0.4% | 1.1% | 22.5% | 74.5% | 2.9% | Hike 25 | +19.4 | $2.66M |
| January 26–27, 2027 | 1.2% | 2.5% | 57.5% | 37.5% | 2.5% | No change | +9.3 | $230.5K |
Another Fed rate hike this year: 77.5% · Emergency rate cut before next year: 5.7%.
| Meeting | Most likely on Polymarket | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap (pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 27–28, 2026 | No change | 80.5% | 79.5% | +1.0 | side by side · on Kalshi View |
| December 8–9, 2026 | Hike 25 | 74.5% | 73.5% | +1.0 | side by side · on Kalshi View |
| January 26–27, 2027 | No change | 57.5% | 61.5% | -4.0 | on Kalshi View |
Kalshi prices are the midpoint of its best bid and ask for the same outcome of the same meeting.
Changes are in the upper bound of the federal funds target range, as each market's rules define them. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not quotes you can trade at. Educational information, not financial advice.
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| Hike–Pause–Hike | 59.5% | |
| Hike–Pause–Pause | 21.5% | |
| Hike–Hike–Hike | 13% | |
| Hike–Hike–Pause | 3.2% | |
| Other | 3.5% |
Source: market
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 95.9% | |
| 1 (25 bps) | 1.7% |
Source: market
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5% | 1.6% | |
| 3.75% | 1.2% | |
| 4.0% | 18.1% | |
| 4.25% | 59.7% | |
| ≥ 4.5% | 9.5% |
Source: market
| Outcome | Chance | |
|---|---|---|
| December 2026 Meeting | 4.5% | |
| January 2027 Meeting | 7.0% | |
| March 2027 Meeting | 22% | |
| April 2027 Meeting | 29.5% | |
| June 2027 Meeting | 36% | |
| July 2027 Meeting | 53% |
Source: market
More: Fed funds futures to probability calculator · All Fed and interest-rate markets · Calendar of markets ending soon · How accurate is Polymarket?
A compact card with the next meeting's odds for your site or newsletter; it updates twice a day. Keep the link under the card: it is the attribution (CC BY 4.0). On a light page add ?theme=light to the card address. More on embedding odds.
<iframe src="https://polymarkettrader.com/embed/fed-rate-odds/" width="100%" height="290" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Fed decision odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/fed-rate-odds/">Fed rate odds</a> via <a href="https://polymarkettrader.com/">PolymarketTrader</a></p>
Quoting these numbers in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “Fed rate odds for every upcoming FOMC meeting”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/fed-rate-odds/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Polymarket traders give 80.5% to no change at the Fed's October 27–28, 2026 meeting (as of October 6, 2026), 19.5% to a 25 bps hike. Most likely at the next meetings: December: a 25 bps hike 74.5%; January: no change 57.5%. Adding up each meeting's market-implied change gives about +33 bps over the next 3 meetings.
Each meeting has one market with five outcomes (cut 50+ bps, cut 25, no change, hike 25, hike 50+) that settle on the change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range in the FOMC statement. A price of 60 cents means traders see about a 60% chance.
FedWatch derives probabilities from 30-day fed funds futures prices; Polymarket prices come from traders buying and selling the outcomes directly. The two usually agree on the favourite but can differ by several points, especially far from the meeting.
The probability-weighted change in basis points for each meeting (treating 50+ as 50). Adding the meetings together gives a rough market-implied path, not a forecast of the exact rate.
Free JSON: /api/v1/fed-rates.json (CC BY 4.0). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket or the Federal Reserve.