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Oil & Commodities Odds on Polymarket
Updated October 6, 2026 · 53 live markets · refreshed twice a day
Crude oil, gold and other commodity price markets. Every live market on the topic is below, with the leading outcome's probability, its 24-hour change, trading volume and end date.
Live Oil & Commodities markets
| Market | Leading outcome | 24h change | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|
| What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026? | ↓ $85 72.5% | +7.0 pts | $198.9K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? | By December 31 15% | -2.5 pts | $142.0K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts? | By November 30 75% | -2.0 pts | $117.8K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Crude Oil all time high? | By December 31 9.5% | -1.0 pts | $49.9K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Houthis enter Aden? | By December 31 28.5% | -3.5 pts | $41.5K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Yes 10% | +0.5 pts | $22.7K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of October 5 2026? | ↑ $4,150 99.9%+ | — | $14.0K | Oct 9, 2026 |
| What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 5 2026? | ↓ $60 68% | +8.5 pts | $12.1K | Oct 9, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes 2.5% | -0.4 pts | $11.9K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026? | ↓ $4,100 80% | +0.5 pts | $9.2K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of October 5 2026? | ↑ $3.10 87% | +13.0 pts | $8.9K | Oct 9, 2026 |
| What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in October 2026? | ↓ $60 84.9% | +6.4 pts | $7.5K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October? | 25-29 42.5% | -10.0 pts | $5.7K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December? | ↑ $5,000 21.5% | -2.5 pts | $5.3K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit Week of October 5 2026? | ↓ $85 34% | +3.5 pts | $4.1K | Oct 9, 2026 |
| EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026? | 30M+ 96.3% | -0.2 pts | $4.1K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees? | By December 31 19.5% | +3.0 pts | $3.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026? | 30M+ 86.5% | +8.5 pts | $2.8K | Dec 1, 2026 |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? | October 31 35.5% | +7.0 pts | $2.2K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| IEA asks Germany to release oil stocks? | By December 31 52.5% | +21.5 pts | $2.1K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5? | 25-29 31.5% | — | $1.8K | Oct 12, 2026 |
| EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026? | 30M+ 81.5% | — | $1.7K | Jan 1, 2027 |
| How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5? | 170-189 48.5% | +26.5 pts | $1.4K | Oct 12, 2026 |
| Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal? | No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026 82.5% | +1.0 pts | $1.1K | Feb 1, 2027 |
| Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October? | 0-5 71.5% | +6.0 pts | $1.0K | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 | S&P 500 61.5% | — | $957 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz? | October 4 94.5% | +37.5 pts | $939 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? | Yes 10% | -3.0 pts | $700 | Dec 31, 2026 |
| Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 6? | Up 51.5% | — | $662 | Oct 6, 2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 6? | Up 55% | — | $608 | Oct 6, 2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above ___ on October 6? | $86 93.5% | — | $574 | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30? | 280M 81% | -0.5 pts | $539 | Nov 12, 2026 |
| Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31? | US 44% | +17.5 pts | $537 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief? | By October 31 12% | +1.5 pts | $431 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..? | December 31 16% | -0.5 pts | $389 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| IEA asks France to release oil stocks? | By December 31 63.5% | — | $339 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Federal Gas Tax Suspended? | By November 2 0.4% | -0.4 pts | $292 | Nov 3, 2026 |
| US x Cuba economic deal? | By December 31 11% | -0.5 pts | $219 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Houthis successfully target shipping? | By October 31 38.5% | -17.0 pts | $211 | Oct 31, 2026 |
| Houthis seize an oil tanker? | By October 31 6.5% | -3.0 pts | $151 | Nov 1, 2026 |
13 smaller markets are not shown; all 53 are in the JSON data.
For multi-outcome markets the leading outcome is the one with the highest price; for yes/no markets it is the YES price. Prices are Polymarket share prices read as probabilities, not executable quotes.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Oil & Commodities odds on Polymarket today?
As of October 6, 2026 at 00:50 UTC, Polymarket lists 53 live Oil & Commodities markets with $681.1K traded in the last 24 hours. The most active is What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026? (↓ $85 72.5%), followed by Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed? (By December 31 15%), Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts? (By November 30 75%).
How many Oil & Commodities markets are open on Polymarket?
53 live markets as of October 6, 2026, not counting single games and markets that close within a few hours. The table lists them by 24-hour trading volume and refreshes twice a day.
Where do these odds come from?
From Polymarket's public market data. Each probability is the displayed price of an outcome's YES share, so 60¢ reads as roughly a 60% chance. Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket; nothing here is financial advice.
Use this data
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Polymarket View, “Oil & Commodities odds on Polymarket”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/oil/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
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