{ "updated": "2026-10-06T01:27:06+00:00", "license": "CC BY 4.0", "attribution": { "required": true, "text": "Odds data: PolymarketTrader.com", "url": "https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/senate-forecast-2026/" }, "ratings": "favourite's price: safe >=95%, likely 80-95%, lean 60-80%, toss-up <60%", "chambers": { "senate": { "control": [ { "outcome": "Democratic Party", "price": 0.655 }, { "outcome": "Republican Party", "price": 0.345 } ], "seats": [ { "outcome": "≤47", "price": 0.385 }, { "outcome": "48", "price": 0.17 }, { "outcome": "49", "price": 0.135 }, { "outcome": "50", "price": 0.125 }, { "outcome": "51", "price": 0.08 }, { "outcome": "52", "price": 0.0455 }, { "outcome": "53", "price": 0.034 }, { "outcome": "54", "price": 0.021 }, { "outcome": "55", "price": 0.0145 }, { "outcome": "56", "price": 0.0115 }, { "outcome": "57+", "price": 0.0065 } ], "races": [ { "race": "Iowa", "market": "iowa-senate-election-winner", "rating": "Toss-up", "volume": 730215.98, "candidates": [ { "name": "Ashley Hinson", "party": "R", "price": 0.575 }, { "name": "Josh Turek", "party": "D", "price": 0.425 } ], "kalshi": { "ticker": "SENATEIA-26", "R": 0.565, "D": 0.435 } }, { "race": "Maine", "market": "maine-senate-election-winner", "rating": "Toss-up", "volume": 2123337.49, "candidates": [ { "name": "Troy Jackson", "party": "D", "price": 0.585 }, { "name": "Susan Collins", "party": "R", "price": 0.415 } ], "kalshi": { "ticker": "SENATEME-26", "R": 0.445, "D": 0.555 } }, { "race": "Ohio", "market": "ohio-senate-election-winner", "rating": "Lean Democrat", "volume": 1051411.38, "candidates": [ { "name": "Sherrod Brown", "party": "D", "price": 0.615 }, { "name": "Jon Husted", "party": "R", "price": 0.385 } ], "kalshi": { "ticker": "SENATEOHS-26", "R": 0.355, "D": 0.635 } }, { "race": "Texas", "market": "texas-senate-election-winner", "rating": "Lean Democrat", "volume": 2189092.55, "candidates": [ { "name": "James Talarico", "party": "D", "price": 0.645 }, { "name": "Ken Paxton", "party": "R", "price": 0.355 } ], "kalshi": { "ticker": "SENATETX-26", "R": 0.345, "D": 0.655 } }, { "race": "Kansas", "market": "kansas-senate-election-winner", "rating": "Lean Republican", "volume": 762163.31, "candidates": [ { "name": "Roger Marshall", "party": "R", "price": 0.675 }, { "name": "Adam Hamilton", "party": "D", "price": 0.33 } ], "kalshi": { "ticker": "SENATEKS-26", "R": 0.655, "D": 0.335 } }, { "race": "Alaska", "market": "alaska-senate-election-winner", "rating": "Lean (Mary Peltola)", "volume": 1124676.67, "candidates": [ { "name": "Mary Peltola", "party": "", "price": 0.735 }, { "name": "Sen. 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