Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Price gaps
Updated October 6, 2026 at 01:32 UTC · refreshed twice a day · free CSV and JSON below
Across 205 outcomes priced on both Polymarket and Kalshi on October 6, 2026, the two exchanges differ by 1.1 points on average (median 0.9); 87% are within 2 points and 99% within 5. Among the 64 competitive outcomes (both prices between 10% and 90%) the average gap is 1.5 points. The widest: Which party wins the 2028 presidential election, Republicans (Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 41.5%).
| Category | Outcomes | Average gap (pts) | Median gap | Within 2 pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy and business | 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 33% |
| Elections | 8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 75% |
| Fed | 15 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 87% |
| Governor races | 66 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 91% |
| Senate races | 66 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 86% |
| Sports | 47 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 89% |
| Market | Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which party wins the 2028 presidential election | Republicans | 34.5% | 41.5% | -7.0 |
| Which party wins the 2028 presidential election | Democrats | 64.5% | 58.5% | +6.0 |
| Nevada governor race | Democrat (Aaron Ford) | 55.5% | 51.5% | +4.0 |
| Fed decision, January 26–27, 2027 | No change | 57.5% | 61.5% | -4.0 |
| NBA champion 2027 | New York Knicks | 12.5% | 8.5% | +4.0 |
| US recession by the end of 2026 | Yes | 7.5% | 3.5% | +4.0 |
| Nevada governor race | Republican (Joe Lombardo) | 44.5% | 48.5% | -4.0 |
| NBA champion 2027 | Miami Heat | 3.0% | 6.5% | -3.5 |
| Louisiana senate race | Republican (Julia Letlow) | 93% | 96.4% | -3.4 |
| Maine senate race | Republican (Susan Collins) | 41.5% | 44.5% | -3.0 |
| Ohio senate race | Republican (Jon Husted) | 38.5% | 35.5% | +3.0 |
| Arizona governor race | Democrat (Katie Hobbs) | 91.5% | 88.5% | +3.0 |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi in percentage points, before fees. Senate and governor races compare each party's candidate; Fed meetings compare the same decision outcome.
More: Polymarket vs Kalshi, event by event · Senate forecast with Kalshi prices · Fed rate odds on both · Arbitrage calculator
Quoting this study in an article, a paper or a newsletter? Copy this citation and keep the date, because prices move. Tips: how to cite Polymarket odds.
Polymarket View, “How close are Polymarket and Kalshi odds?”, October 6, 2026, https://polymarkettrader.com/polymarket-vs-kalshi/price-gaps/ (data: Polymarket, CC BY 4.0).
Across 205 outcomes priced on both Polymarket and Kalshi on October 6, 2026, the two exchanges differ by 1.1 points on average (median 0.9); 87% are within 2 points and 99% within 5. Among the 64 competitive outcomes (both prices between 10% and 90%) the average gap is 1.5 points. The widest: Which party wins the 2028 presidential election, Republicans (Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 41.5%).
They are separate exchanges with their own traders, fees, rules and settlement sources, and money cannot move freely between them, so the same event can trade at slightly different prices.
Only if the gap is larger than both exchanges' fees and the two contracts settle on exactly the same rules. Check with the arbitrage calculator: polymarkettrader.com/tools/polymarket-arbitrage-calculator/.
Polymarket prices are the outcome prices Polymarket publishes; Kalshi prices are the midpoint of its best bid and ask (the last trade when the book is one-sided), both read on the same run. The gap is Polymarket minus Kalshi in percentage points, before fees.
Data: CSV · JSON (CC BY 4.0, attribution: PolymarketTrader.com). Polymarket View is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Educational information, not financial advice.