Home › Polymarket vs Kalshi › Which party wins the Senate in 2026
Updated October 6, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
Polymarket prices Democrats at 65.5% and Kalshi at 64.5%. The widest gap is on Democrats: 65.5% on Polymarket vs 64.5% on Kalshi (1.0 points). Prices checked October 6, 2026, before fees.
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Cheaper to buy Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 65.5% | 64.5% | +1.0 pts | Kalshi |
| Republicans | 34.5% | 35.5% | -1.0 pts | Polymarket |
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in percentage points, before fees. Polymarket odds page for this event · Kalshi odds for this event on Kalshi View
📊 2026 Senate forecast: every race, with Kalshi prices side by side
Polymarket prices Democrats at 65.5% and Kalshi at 64.5%. The widest gap is on Democrats: 65.5% on Polymarket vs 64.5% on Kalshi (1.0 points). Prices checked October 6, 2026, before fees.
They are separate order books with different traders, fees and access rules, so the same outcome can trade a few points apart. Fees, deposit and withdrawal costs and settlement rules can erase a small gap.
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